Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, July 30, 2017
The Perfect Stock Market Crash Indicator Is Flashing Red / Stock-Markets / US Auto's
By: John_Rubino
What’s the last big toy you buy when things have been good for a really long time and you already have all the other toys? An RV, of course. A dubious thing to own if you already have a house, but when the good times seem likely to roll on forever, why the hell not?
And what’s the first thing you sell when you lose your job and your stocks are tanking? That very same RV. Which makes new RV sales a useful indicator of our place in the business cycle.
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Sunday, July 30, 2017
Investment Legend Warns of a 1987-Type Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Graham_Summers
Klarman is founder of Baupost Group and is widely considered to be one of the greatest value investors in history. In 30+ years from 1982 to 2015, he only had three losing years, and is believed to have averaged returns of 16%.
Bear in mind, he did thiswhile keeping 30%-50% in cash at all times.
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Sunday, July 30, 2017
Stock Market SPX Uptrending Again After Minuscule Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Tony_Caldaro
The week started at SPX 2473. With nothing more than a pullback to SPX 2466 on Monday, the market worked its way to a new all-time high at 2484 on Thursday. After opening at the high the market started to pullback, then sold off to SPX 2460 in the afternoon. After that the market rebounded to end the week at SPX 2372. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Economic reports were mostly positive, with no rate increase at the FOMC meeting. On the downtick: existing homes sales, plus jobless claims rose. On the uptick: consumer confidence/sentiment, new home sales, durable goods, and Q2 GDP. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the ISMs and monthly payrolls. Best to your week!
Saturday, July 29, 2017
Investors Beating U.S. Stock Market Can Be Simple / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Adam_ODell
Americans like to buy American stocks.
Europeans prefer European stocks.
And Chinese investors… well, you guessed it, they go heavily into Chinese stocks.
This is the essence of a phenomenon called home country bias.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Fed Quantitative Tightening Bearish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
Ominously for the stock markets, the Federal Reserve is warning that quantitative tightening is coming later this year. The Fed is on the verge of starting to drain its vast seas of new money conjured out of thin air over the past decade or so. The looming end of this radically-unprecedented easy-money era is exceedingly bearish for these lofty stock markets, which have been grossly inflated for years by Fed QE.
Way back in December 2008, the first US stock panic in an entire century left the Fed frantic. Fearful of an extreme negative wealth effect spawning another depression, the Fed quickly forced its benchmark federal-funds rate to zero. Once that zero-interest-rate policy had been implemented, no more rate cuts were practical. ZIRP is terribly disruptive economically, fueling huge distortions. But negative rates are far worse.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Could USD/JPY go into Freefall? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are down, but have not exceeded yesterday’s intraday low.
Today being Friday, there may be an effort to keep the decline from going too low. That suggests a probable bounce at Short-term support at 2457.17 to rally back to breakeven by the end of the day. Should this take place, it may offer another short entry opportunity by the end of the day. But this is only one outcome out of several possible scenarios. A second scenario may be an immediate launch into a Wave three scenario with a minimum 8-12% decline in the next three days. Yesterday may have been day one of a 4.3-day panic Cycle.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Stock Market XIV Starting To Crack And The VIX Ends Its Streak / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Submissions
Mike Golembesky: Recent Price Action
This week the XIV continued to grind higher finally reaching a high of 96.98 on Wednesday afternoon. This high was followed by a very small move to the downside late in the day on Wednesday.
Thursday morning saw a slight recovery but by the noon lunch hour, the XIV started showing signs of weakness. By 12:30 the XIV began to move sharply lower finally bottoming at the 89.28 level, some 7.5% off of the high of the day.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Euro Bearish, Stocks Topping, Gold Bullish Interpretation / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave
Long term wave count: lower in wave (3) red
Important risk events: EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m. USD: Advance GDP q/q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.
Friday, July 28, 2017
Short the Bounces in Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is giving an aggressive sell signal. Not much more to say. Take the usual precautions.
Thursday, July 27, 2017
When You Think It Can’t Get Worse, The Markets Become Even More Absurd / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : The market is up 2% since I called the top a month ago.
Financial newsletters are now stuffed with bubble porn—their favorite subject is complaining about how overpriced everything is. As a financial writer, it’s tough to stay fresh when that’s all there is to talk about.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
Stock Market Levitation Continues... For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
A closer look at the SPX shows that one more probe higher completes the Wave pattern. This morning’s SPX futures may have done the job already, but we await the open to see the result in the cash Index. There is a possible target where Wave v equals Wave I at 2492.42.
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Mr. Trump: You May Not Want To Take Credit For The Stock Market Just Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Avi_Gilburt
Stock market is still bullish
If you have followed my analysis through the years, you would know that I have correctly been steadfastly bullish the stock market for quite some time. In fact, I was one of the very few who expected the market to rocket higher even after Donald Trump won the election last year.
And, now, we are approaching the S&P 500 target in the 2500SPX region we expected to strike in 2017. However, just because the market has rallied strongly after the election as we expected, it does not mean we expect it to continue into the next election season. And, let me explain why that is so important.
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Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Dollar, Bitcoin, Markets - Is There A New Flight To Safety? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The dollar has been taken beating on ‘false promises’ of any major fiscal reform from the Trump administration.
Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Can A Weak US Dollar Really Push The Dow Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Submissions
By Mike Golembesky : After hitting the 161.8 extension up off of the April 18 lows on July 14, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved sideways and has traded in a very tight range of less than 1% since that July 14 top. Furthermore, the pattern both up and down off of that July 14 high has been very sloppy, not giving us very much information to work with on the smaller time frames.
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Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Stock Market 37-Week Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Ed_Carlson
While the Advance/Decline line (among other indicators) keeps us bullish in the long-term, short-term, the environment is not so sanguine for equities. Both the Hybrid Lindsay model and a 37 week cycle point to a high last week. We can’t help but wonder if this is the top forecast by Lindsay’s 15 year interval (see Market Update 7.10.17).
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Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Stock Market and Gold Stocks Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Brad_Gudgeon
When I made the charts below over the weekend, I had thought I made a mistake regarding the final top in the SPX being 7/20 and changed it to 7/24 based on the astro/cycle reading. As it turns out, it looks as though 7/20 was that top (irregular) and we are not making that rare double irregular top I used to see in the 1980’s.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 24, 2017
3 Stocks Sectors That Will Win in The Fed’s Great Balance-Sheet Unwind / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: John_Mauldin
BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : In its June meeting, the Fed pledged to begin the unwind of its $4.47 trillion balance sheet in September.
Each month, about $50 billion in Treasury bonds on the Fed’s ledger reach maturity. Then the Fed buys new bonds to replace them.
The first step in the “great unwind” will be to let a portion of these maturing bonds roll off the balance sheet.
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Monday, July 24, 2017
5 Reasons to Fear the Stock Market Fall / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Michael_Pento
This powerful and protracted bull market has made Cassandras look foolish for a long time. Those who went on record predicting that massive central bank manipulation of markets would not engender viable economic growth have been proven correct. However, these same individuals failed to fully anticipate the willingness of momentum-trading algorithms to take asset prices very far above the underlying level of economic growth.
Monday, July 24, 2017
S&P 500 Pushing the Envelope - Stock Market Crash 2017 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Submissions
Rajveer Rawlin writes: Looking at the weekly close on the S and p 500 since 1950 its average close stands at 522 while the standard deviation stands at 606. One of the few markets in the world where the standard deviation exceeds the mean. This is also true with other US Indices like the Dow and the Nasdaq but is not the case with Emerging markets. This has been the case with US markets since 1998 when the FED intervened in the market to bail out the failing LTCM. Subsequent Fed intervention has caused the risk in the market to go up and not come down.
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Monday, July 24, 2017
Are US Stocks in a Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, the cofounders of Seabridge Gold, examine the role of risk when trying to differentiate between a bull market and a bubble.
As we have noted, there is a very important difference between a bull market and a bubble. Valuations are certainly one means of distinguishing them. In retrospect, we can recognize previous historic bubbles such as 1929 and 2000. When basic ratios such as Price-to-Sales and Tobins' Q have reached the levels that marked these bubbles, as they have, we can make a reasonable inference that another bubble has formed.
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