Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 17, 2018
iShares Russell 2000 IWM Leading Stock Market Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, December 17, 2018
Where is the Dow Stock Market Santa Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
On Friday the Dow closed near 500 points lower at 24,100. So with less than 10 days to go until Christmas there is no sign of the stock market Santa rally.
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Sunday, December 16, 2018
Is there a Lump of Coal in Santa's Stock Market Bag? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX eased down to challenge the weekly short-term support at 20.48 on Thursday. On Friday it bounced to close above its Cycle Top support/resistance at 21.25. Wall Street doesn’t seem to be alarmed.
(Bloomberg) Wall Street is making peace with the new normal of higher volatility as stocks careen between agonizing sell-offs and sudden rallies.
After the gut-wrenching $2.5 trillion wipeout in the S&P 500 since early October, traders are resting at relative ease as they prep for market bumps down the road.
Friday, December 14, 2018
The stock market fails to rally each day. What’s next for stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market has been been gapping up on the open and selling off later in the day recently.
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Friday, December 14, 2018
How Low Could the S&P 500 Go? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Our target for the first half of 2019 is and has been the 2100 to 2200 area for the S&P 500. A friend asked…
I’ve been meaning to ask (and possibly) know the answer, 2100-2200 for H1 2019 is your ultimate bear market target or opening act?
Opening act. It could be the ultimate target because there is a lot of support at that area and a good solid bear phase could put the Fed on ice and impose some changes to Donald Trump’s bull in a China shop policy style.
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Friday, December 14, 2018
Will the Arrest of Huawei Executive Derail Trade War Truce? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: ElliottWaveForecast
EWFHendra: The market celebrated the trade war truce between U.S. and China after the successful meeting last week between President Trump and Xi. Unfortunately, it only lasted for about 24 hours as news came in with the arrest of Huawei top executive Meng Wanzhou in Canada. Meng faces an extradition to the U.S. on the allegation that she committed fraud to avoid sanctions against Iran. This arrest opens a new chapter in escalating battle between the U.S. and China to gain tech supremacy.
Huawei is the world’s largest telecoms equipment provider and also the second largest mobile phone manufacturer. The founder Ren Zhengfei is a former military officer and Meng Wanzhou is his daughter. Huawei is one of the pillars in China’s ambition to be an independent technology powerhouse. The arrest happened on December 1, the same day that President Xi and Trump had the dinner meeting in Buenos Aires.
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Thursday, December 13, 2018
While The Stocks Bulls Fiddle With The 'Fundamentals,' Rome Burns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
In the past, I have outlined why fundamentals look best at market highs, and worst at market lows. And, just like we normally experience, as we were soaring over 2900, I am sure many of you were convinced that this was one of the best economies we have seen in quite some time. But, we seem to have topped on those great expectations.
As the market continued to chop around near the lows this past week, I saw an article entitled “The Steep Stock Market Sell-off Does Not Make Sense.” Within that article, the author highlights the fact that earnings growth remains healthy, the economy continues to grow, and that equity valuation are at the lower end of their historical range.
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Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Where is the Stock Market Santa Claus Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the S&P 500 down so far in December, some investors and traders are asking “where’s the Santa Claus Rally”?
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Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Gold & Global Financial Crisis Redux / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Global Financial Crisis, a broader deeper more powerful systemic crisis than the Lehman Event was, has finally arrived in a great redux. It is seen in numerous areas. We have finally arrived at the ten-year anniversary of the Lehman event, a killjob whereby JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs bought a few $billion in mortgage bonds and never paid Lehman Brothers. The firm died, called a financial failure, but was actually a strangulation. Goldman went on to capture AIG, in order to claim 100 cents per dollar on insured mortgage bonds, a second crime. The Wall Street banks, under the leader Henry Paulsen as the managing USTreasury Secretary, completed the third crime, by pitching the $700 billion TARP Fund. They stole it, using the fund for enriching themselves with redeemed preferred stock, instead of making the funds available for lending purposes. Here ten years later, nothing has been fixed. In fact, all the abuses heaped upon the mortgage finance sector have been repeated in sovereign bonds. The USTreasury Bond has become a subprime bond, financed by pure monetization, almost no actual bonds buyers, $trillion annual deficits, auctions rigged, with hidden demand from the derivative machinery. It qualifies as a Third World debt security. The corporate bonds were routinely abused in stock buybacks, hardly ever ploughed back into the business. High yield bonds are the norm now, along with the wrecked Emerging Market bonds. There are many analysts who call the current situation the Everything Bond Bubble.
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Stock Market Topping Formation as Risks Rise Around the World / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: FXCOT
Brexit Woes
British Prime Minister Theresa May delayed a critical parliamentary vote on her proposal to leave the European Union, throwing both her government and her plans for the U.K.’s exit from the bloc into disarray. The big problem in brexit is ireland. Ireland is a EU member. Post Brexit, EU argues, that Ireland will be subject to EU rules while UK seeks assurances from them that a last-resort “backstop” guarantee that ensures no hard border appears between the Republic of Ireland and British-ruled Northern Ireland. But securing such a concession will be a challenge. So we are clearly moving towards a hard brexit and GBPUSD will fall from the current levels of 1.25. One of the best ways to take advantage of the brexit is via trading the GBPUSD via trade copier at fxcot.com
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Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Stock Market Medium term Bullish, But Long Term Risk:Reward is Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Last week’s market outlook was not clearly explained, so I would like to clarify.
Our models have not yet turned long term bearish, although they are getting close to turning long term bearish. But while building new and better models like the Macro Index, I’ve come to realize that at least from a long term risk:reward perspective, it doesn’t favor long term bulls. Market outlook and risk:reward are not the same thing. Here’s an example.
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Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Why Are You Getting Stock Market Whipsawed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
This past week was quite interesting, as well as volatile. On Monday, we had a huge gap up right into the initial resistance region we had on our charts in the 2810-15SPX region. In fact, the futures struck a high of 2813ES, and then turned down.
Well, when the trading day opened on Monday, analysts and market participants were quite certain that the “cause” of the rally was due to the dinner discussions the US President had with the Chinese President. And, based upon that dinner (and nothing more than that), everyone assumed that the market gapped up “bigly.”
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Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Is a Deleveraging Event about to Unfold in the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As 2018 draws to a close and the global equities markets continue to find pricing and valuation pressures driving prices lower, a few questions come to mind for all investors/traders – Is a deleveraging event about to unfold? What will it look like if it does happen and how can I protect my investments from such an event? This research article is going to help you answer those questions and should help to resolve any lingering questions you may have regarding the true nature of this market rotation and volatility.
Monday, December 10, 2018
Silver Fails Miserably To Meet Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Kelsey_Williams
No matter how harsh it sounds, it is true. Unfortunately, too many people don’t want to hear it and refuse to listen.
Acknowledgement of the facts doesn’t seem to deter its supporters. We are told that silver’s ongoing underperformance relative to gold makes it “a better buy” with “more profit potential”.
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Monday, December 10, 2018
Does Wall Street Now Have a Powell Put / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Michael_Pento
First let’s explain exactly what a “Fed Put” is. A Fed put is defined as: The confidence of Wall Street that the Fed will lower interest rates and print money to support the market until economic strength will be strong enough to carry stocks higher. The term “Put” is ascribed to this because a put option is basically a contract that offers a buyer protection from falling asset prices. It was first coined under the Chairmanship of Alan Greenspan when he lowered interest rates and printed money to rescue Wall Street from its 22% Black Monday crash back in 1987. The practice of bailing out stocks was institutionalized by Ben Bernanke; and then became a bonafide tradition perpetuated by Janet Yellen.
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Monday, December 10, 2018
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, December 10, 2018
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As I explained in today’s special report, our Macro Investing Index has been deteriorating since August/September 2018. This stands in sharp contrast with the 10% correction from this January – February 2018, when the U.S. macro economy was healthy.
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Saturday, December 08, 2018
The Future of Net Worth / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Harry_Dent
Have I mentioned that this bubble in stocks – the one that most economists and analysts still claim “is not a bubble” – is now the greatest by far in its numerical advance, its percentage gains, and time frame?You’re damn right I have!
I’m broadcasting the warning far and wide, to any who will listen. Hopefully I can save a few, including you…
Unfortunately, people fat and drunk and high on free-money crack don’t see any bubble (nor do they want to, even if they could)!
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Friday, December 07, 2018
US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Today’s post is really important. It’s based on the Macro Investing Model, which is something I’ve been working on for weeks.
The economy (macro) is set to deteriorate
Our new Macro Investing Index is described as:
As we’ve demonstrated repeatedly here at Bull Markets, leading economic indicators are also long term leading indicators for the stock market because the stock market and the economy move in the same direction in the long term. This is how you know if the stock market’s decline is a correction, or the start of a much bigger bear market (e.g. a 30%+ decline).
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Wednesday, December 05, 2018
Yield Curve Harbinger of Stock Market Doom / Stock-Markets / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Gary_Tanashian
“The Harbinger of Doom”? Of course we (well, the media) are talking about the yield curve AKA Amigo #3 of our 3 happy-go-lucky riders of the macro. I have annoyed you repeatedly with this imagery in order to show that three important macro factors needed to finish riding before situation turns decidedly negative.
Amigo 1: SPX (or stocks in general)/Gold Ratio
Amigo 2: 30 Year Treasury Yield
Amigo 3: Yield Curve
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