Thursday, May 02, 2019
The Fed Can’t Ease Interest Rates Until Stocks Collapse… / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Graham_Summers
Yesterday’s Fed meeting had one clear message:
The Fed needs a reason to cut rates.
The Fed has obviously laid the ground work for a rate cut by hinting at easing… but with the “official” GDP numbers at 3.2% and inflation under 2%… the Fed doesn’t have a clear reason to ease just yet.
It will soon… and that reason is going to be a stock market collapse.
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Thursday, May 02, 2019
How Online Gambling Has Benefited New Jersey’s Economy / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's been a while since my last analysis of the US housing market, in fact a full 3 years, preceded by my original 3 year trend forecast covering November 2012 to early 2016 that forecast a strong a bull market against expectations at the time (and for many subsequent years), for it's forgotten today that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the prevailing view was that the US housing market was dead for a generation, and this not just from the usual perma doom merchants (I don't like to name names but you know who they are!) but was consensus view at the time.
So before we plunge into the analysis deep towards concluding in a trend forecast, it's good to understand the reasons why the consensus led by academics usually tend to find themselves on the WRONG side of major market trends.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Carpe Diem / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger reviews recent movements in precious metals and discusses how he is playing the market. Last week I sent out my uber-bullish call on the metals and miners at the conclusion of a period fraught with doom and despair for all things gold and silver. The criminality of the interventionists was in full bloom as they bombed gold down through that critical "Line in the Sand" at $1282 forcing the Speculative Longs (hedge funds, quant funds, technical funds) to immediately reverse and regurgitate longs and initiate big new short positions as the bullion bank behemoths took profits. First, let's revisit that missive.
From Saturday the 20th: "All right, now that I have concluded my rant on the madness being inflicted upon us, I have a couple of observations to make about gold. Earlier last week, I was looking at GLD wondering whether my GLD May $124 puts might hit $5.00 before the end of the week and then it occurred to me that my "Line in the Sand" at the prior lows of $1,282 and the subsequent "breakDOWN" was no different in its blatancy than the "breakOUT" in Barrick. So, I pulled up the GLD chart and lo and behold, while the sub-30 level for RSI sported two super buying opportunities in 2018, it has not been much under 35 in all of 2019 thus far. Now, notwithstanding that the stock markets are getting somewhat stretched, I have to respect two things: 1) the dotted red line in the RSI window in the chart below and 2) that only in the perverse world of precious metals are technical "breakdowns" to be BOUGHT while technical "breakouts to be SOLD. Therefore, I have covered all my shorts in both gold and the mining shares and initiated 50% long positions in JNUG, NUGT and the GLD June $120 calls. The chart below pretty much says all that is needed; we are at an inflection point that represented tradeable bottoms in mid-November and early March."
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
Will Platinum Be the Precious Metal Leader? / Commodities / Platinum
By: The_Gold_Report
Platinum, after making what appears to be a wash-out low in August 2018, now looks poised to be a precious metal leader, writes fund manager John Newell at Fieldhouse Capital Management.
What is Platinum:
Platinum is a precious transition metal that has the chemical symbol Pt and an atomic number of 78 on the periodic table. Platinum is grayish white in color and is often mistaken for silver. Platinum is derived from the Spanish word, platina, which translates to "small silver." Once considered a nuisance mineral, it was often discarded by early miners. Platinum is thirty times rarer than gold, with annual production of 6 million ounces per year, compared to ~100 million p/a ounces of gold, and 850 million ounces p/a of silver.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
How Close is the Stock Market From Topping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Now that most of the US Major Indexes have breached new all-time price highs, which we called over 5+ months ago, and many traders are starting to become concerned about how and where the markets may find resistance or begin to top, we are going to try to paint a very clear picture of the upside potential for the markets and why we believe volatility and price rotation may become a very big concern over the next few months. Our objective is to try to help you stay informed of pending market rotation and to alert you that we may be nearing a period within the US markets where increased volatility is very likely.
Longer term, many years into the future, our predictive modeling systems are suggesting this upside price swing is far from over. Our models suggest that price rotation will become a major factor over the next 12 to 15+ months – headed into the US Presidential election cycle of November 2020. Our models are suggesting that the second half of this year could present an incredible opportunity for skilled investors as price volatility/rotation provide bigger price swings. Additionally, our models suggest that early 2020 will provide even more opportunity for skilled traders who are able to understand the true price structure of the markets. Get ready, thing are about to get really interesting and if you are not following our research or a member of our services, you might want to think about joining soon.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
Why US Dollar Strength is Long Term Catalyst for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
As we know, Gold and the US Dollar have an inverse relationship. Gold is priced in US Dollars and the drivers of each are similar (from an inverse point of view). Over long-term periods both trend in the same direction but the magnitude of the moves can vary and be quite different.
The standard inverse relationship has not been a perfect one in recent months or years.
In the chart below we plot Gold, gold stocks and the US Dollar.
We highlight (with vertical lines) the points at which Gold tested the wall of resistance. As you can see, the relationship with the dollar hasn’t been uniform.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
America’s Gradual Slide, Experience and Withdrawal From Vietnam - Part 2 / Politics / US Politics
By: Raymond_Matison
Continuation from Part1 - Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation
The Kennedy Years
Before he became President, a tour of Vietnam convinced John Kennedy that the US must align herself with the emerging nations, and that Communism could never be defeated by relying solely of force of arms. His Indochina experience led him to that conclusion, as did a dinner conversation in New Delhi with Jawaharlal Nehru, who called the French as an example of doomed colonialism and said Communism offered the masses “something to die for” whereas the West promised only the status quo. War would not stop Communism, Nehru warned him; it would only enhance it, “for the devastation of war breeds only more poverty and more want.” In 1957 JFK declared in a Senate speech “The most powerful single force in the world today, is neither communism nor capitalism, neither the H-bomb nor the guided missile – it is man’s eternal desire to be free and independent.”
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
Silver Market Alert: Powerful Bullish Setup Takes Shape / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The silver market appears to be setting up for a big move.
After spending this spring stair-stepping lower in a narrowing range, silver prices have formed a falling wedge pattern. That pattern usually resolves in a powerful directional breakout. The good news for bulls is that falling wedges usually break out to the upside.
Wednesday, May 01, 2019
This Stock Is as Safe as Coca Cola but Pays a 6.4% Dividend / Companies / Dividends
By: Robert_Ross
I bet you’ve never heard of Pat Munroe.
And unless you’re from the Florida Panhandle, I imagine you haven’t heard of Quincy, Florida, either.
But the two can teach us a lot about investing.
See, in the early 1920s, Munroe was a banker in Quincy.
One thing Munroe noticed was no matter how hard the times, the people of his small town always seemed to have money to buy a Coca-Cola.
So he started buying shares of the company. Not long after, he was telling everyone in town to buy shares of Coca-Cola.
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
U.S. GDP Accelerates, while Socialists Triumph in Spain. Will Gold also Win? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The US economic growth in the Q1 2019 positively surprised. Indeed, on the upside. The doubting Thomasses were proven wrong. And The Socialist Party just won the snap elections in Spain. Is the left back in vogue in the Eurozone? But what does it all mean for the gold market?
US GDP Surprises on the Upside
On Friday, the government said that the US GDP expanded at a 3.2 percent annual pace in the first three months of 2019. What is important is that the number significantly surpassed the forecasts. For example, the economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a 2.3 percent increase. The fears of the slowdown were overblown, as we have been warning for a long time.
Actually, the American economy accelerated in the first three months of 2019, as the economy grew at a 2.2 percent in Q4 2018, as one can see in the chart below.
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Why the Stock Market Rallied So Fast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Most market analysts didn’t expect the stock market to recover so fast, but if you knew how Elliott Wave works, you could have anticipated the current move.
- What’s Next for the Stock Market
- Understanding the Bigger Picture
- E-Waves and Cycles
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
This Indicator Signals the US Economy Is Slowing Down / Economics / US Economy
By: Patrick_Watson
It’s not a good sign for your health if your blood pressure drops too low. Similarly, the economy is probably sick when its circulatory system slows down. You don’t need a blood pressure gauge to know it either. Just count how many trucks you see on the highway.
Under normal conditions, busy highways and seaports mean a growing economy. Businesses are producing more stuff finding its way to consumers.
That was happening since we emerged from the Great Recession in 2009, albeit slower than in the past cycles.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2019
A Look Inside the Scheme to Eliminate Cash and Impose Negative Interest / Interest-Rates / War on Cash
By: MoneyMetals
Central bankers and politicians love inflation, but they need “bag holders” to have faith in the value of the fiat currency IOUs they hold. The trick is to avoid suddenly destroying the ephemeral confidence in currencies by printing too much too fast.
Central bankers may also need to limit the options inflation wary citizens have for escaping.
They are both shifty and innovative when it comes to making sure the ill effects of perpetually devaluing currency are primarily borne by the citizenry.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2019
When Overvalued and Dangerous Markets Meet Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Michael_Pento
To put into perspective how overvalued and dangerous the US market has become; I often cite the figure of total market cap to GDP—currently 145% of the economy. How high is 145% of GDP? It is a full 30% higher than it was before the start of the Great Recession. The twin sister to this metric is the Household Net Worth to GDP Ratio. Household net worth as a percent of GDP is calculated by dividing the current bubbles in home prices and equities by the underlying economy, which has been artificially inflated by interest rates that have been pushed into the sub-basement of history. This metric is now an incredible 535% of GDP, which is a record high and 19% higher than the NASDAQ bubble of 2000. To put that figure in perspective, the good folks at Daily Reckoning have calculated that the historical average is 384%.
These valuation measurements are much more accurate than Wall Street’s favorite PE ratio valuation barometer because they cannot be easily manipulated by corporate share buybacks that have been facilitated by record-low borrowing costs. And, as hinted at already, the GDP denominator of today is much more tenuous because it has become more than ever predicated on the record amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus from the government.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Gold Price May Give Us One More Chance With New Lows / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our proprietary price cycle tool is showing us that the Daily Gold cycles may dive a bit lower, possibly into the $1250 to $1265 level, over the next 3~7+ days before reaching an ultimate low. We’ve been covering the precious metals markets like hawks because of our proprietary price modeling tools that suggested the April 21~24 dates as an ultimate low/momentum base pattern. This new cycle formation highlights the potential that a deeper price low in Gold may set up over the next 5 to 7 days and it may become an incredible buying opportunity for skilled traders.
Taking a look at this cycle chart, we can see the deep price low that may target the $1270 levels or levels just below the $1270 price area. It appears that this new price low may form somewhere near the end of this week, May 3rd, or early next week, May 6th or 7th. Please pay attention to this potential price move as this may be the last low price reversal before a very strong upside price move.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Pension Funds Recover but Annuity Income Falls / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement
By: MoneyFacts
New data from the latest Moneyfacts UK Personal Pension Trends Treasury Report has revealed mixed fortunes for the retirement sector during Q1 2019, with pension fund returns performing strongly but annuity rates declining.
Pension fund recovery
Pension funds endured a marked downturn in Q4 2018, with the average pension fund falling by 7.3%. As a result, in 2018 pension funds suffered their biggest losses since the 2008 financial crisis. However, performance-wise, pension funds have made a bright start to 2019. In Q1 2019, the average pension fund recovered much of last year’s lost ground by generating returns of 6.7% – the strongest quarterly pension fund performance since Q3 2016.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2019
5 Unavoidable Tips for Creating a Perfect Office Culture / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
There are many ways to achieve a happy, productive workforce. From offering training and opportunities for career advancement to nurturing talent and rewarding passion, many businesses are aware of some of the most effective methods for promoting motivation and ensuring employee engagement. However, there is one other aspect that we can’t afford to overlook: the importance of a great office culture.
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Monday, April 29, 2019
Panicked by the Yield Curve Inversion? Time to Load Up on This Stocks Sector / Companies / Sector Analysis
By: Robert_Foss
For about a week last month, the yield curve inverted for the first time since July 2006.
Prior to that, this happened in July 2000 and April 1989.
There’s a pattern here… each inversion hit about 18 months before a recession. In fact, the yield curve has inverted before every recession over the last 50 years.
As such, recession-proofing your portfolio is imperative for investors.
The good news is the yield curve inversion also means stocks should perform well in the short term.
The even better news is that I’ve found a sector that consistently outperforms the broader market after every yield curve inversion.
Monday, April 29, 2019
S&P 500 at Last Year’s Record High, Will Stock Market Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks slightly extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, as investors reacted to the quarterly corporate earnings, better-than-expected economic data releases. The S&P 500 got very close to the September 21st record high again. Will it reach the new all-time high today?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.3-0.5% on Friday, slightly extending the uptrend, as investors’ sentiment remained bullish following the quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 index retraced all of its medium-term downward correction of 20.2% recently. The broad stock market's gauge is now less than 0.1% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,940, marked by the mentioned record high. The next resistance level is at 1,950. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,920, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,900.
The broad stock market retraced all of its December sell-off and it broke above the medium-term resistance level of around 2,900 recently. So is it still just a correction or a new medium-term uptrend? We may see an attempt at getting back to the record high. There have been no confirmed negative medium-term signals so far. The index got very close to its last October all-time high, as we can see on the daily chart:
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