Monday, October 18, 2021
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities / Companies / China Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Don Xi Jin Ping Corleone continues to extract an ever escalating VIG from the chinese tek giants, three of which Bidu, Alibaba and Tencent perked my recent interest to start accumulating into once they crossed below a PE of 20 and for the fact their earnings growth continues to compound on an exponential trend trajectory, so buying chinese stocks should be a no brainier over a 3 to 5 year hold, i.e. new all time highs should be eventually a done deal.
However, as I keep pointing out we are dealing with a mafia enterprise in the Chinese Criminal Party (CCP) and so all must bow their heads down before Emperor Xi Jin Ping who has all the whole marks of absolute power having gone to his head, i.e. he is starting to go the way of all dictators by going a little insane, demanding tributes to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. For instance Tencent recently pledged to offer the crime syndicate $100 billion, likely soon to be followed by the other tek giants.
At this point in time it is difficult to say how long the tech blood bath will continue until the mafia that runs China has gorged itself full on hundreds of billions of dollars, but at this point in time I still see a fall in the chinese tech stocks as being temporary for I can not imagine that the Chinese mafia will actually kill the goose that lays the golden eggs, I am sure there will be some confucius quotes being brought to the attention of Xi Jin Ping.
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Monday, October 18, 2021
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 upswing continues, and is dealing with the 4,470 resistance – but the credit markets don‘t confirm. Still, that‘s rather a sign of stock market strength than of pending doom. The break back above the 50-day moving average has very good odds of sticking, and the sectoral performance bodes well for further advances. Financials and consumer discretionaries liked the daily upswing in yields while tech and real estates fared well regardless. VIX is likely to probe even lower values, it seems.
So, the open S&P 500 long position is working out well, and will likely continue to do so as higher yields just can‘t help the dollar rise. Inflation expectations are again turning up as we have moved from 1H 2021 Fed saying that inflation was transitory to the current phrase that inflation is transitory, but would last longer than we though. The next stage (arriving latest in Q1 2022) will likely be that inflation is sticky but we have tools to deal with it, followed by putting up a happy face that it‘s a good thing we have inflation after all.
Silver will likely keep leading gold, and the nearest target for the gold to silver ratio is 73. Crucially, miners keep confirming the upswing, and the copper example bodes well for silver as both metals are essential for the green economy, talking which means that crude oil is also likely to keep rising. Time to extend the commodity profits even more at a time when crypto gains keep doing great.
Reflation is slowly giving way to stagflation – GDP growth is slowing down while inflation isn‘t disappearing, to put it mildly. The copper upswing isn‘t so much a function of improving economy prospects but of record low stockpiles. Anyway, much more to look for in the commodities and precious metals bull markets that are likely to appreciate much more than stocks this decade.
Monday, October 18, 2021
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The battered gold stocks are bouncing hard, blasting higher over the past couple weeks! That’s despite the Fed still looking to soon start slowing the pace of its epic money printing. Fed-tightening fears had weighted heavily on the precious-metals realm since June. Gold stocks’ sharp rally confirms they have started mean reverting much higher after withering capitulation selling, portending massive gains coming.
As a professional speculator and newsletter guy for over two decades now, herd sentiment never ceases to amaze me. The vast majority of traders have no perspective, just a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mentality on the markets. That foolish self-imposed myopia greatly limits their gains, all but guaranteeing they will fail to buy low then sell high. Succumbing to popular greed and fear usually leads to the opposite.
The leading gold-stock benchmark and trading vehicle remains the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF. Its price trends reflect prevailing gold-stock psychology. Between mid-May to late September, the major gold stocks per GDX dropped 27.1% in 4.4 months. Nearly all those demoralizing losses accrued across just several brief episodes. And they were all triggered by heavy gold-futures selling on Fed-tightening fears.
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Monday, October 18, 2021
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but it is too early to call for an end to the bull market which started in March 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has started. Let’s see if it evolves into something more serious.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, October 18, 2021
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Strong words, I know. Can I back them up? Well, what we see now – looking at various markets – does indeed look like the start of gold’s end
– The Oracle in Matrix Revolutions, 2003
The counter-trend rally has probably just ended, and the final big downswing has probably just started. This “beginning” of the final downswing is, in my opinion, the beginning of the final part of the prolonged sideways trend in gold that started in 2011. In the case of silver and mining stocks, that’s likely the final part of the decline that started back then.
These are strong words – I know. Let’s see if I can back them up.
First of all, I’ve been writing about the analogy between 2013 and now for many weeks now, and you can read about these analogies in this week’s flagship analysis. This key link remains intact. The charts given below confirm that from the short-term point of view.
Monday, October 18, 2021
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As precious metals traders have waited out this extended sideways/downward price contraction in price over the past 14+ months, a very broad Pennant/Flag price formation is nearing an APEX level which suggests Gold may begin a new rally phase over the next 60+ days. Support near $1675 is a critical price level that has been tested three times over the past 8 months. The true APEX of the Pennant/Flag price formation will be reached near November 15, 2021 – nearly 30 days before the US Debt Ceiling issue will become another big issue in Washington DC.
Gold Price Flag Initiated After The $1675 Level Based In March 2021
Let’s start with this Gold Daily Chart. I’ve drawn an upper line from the peak price level, in August 2020, across the recent highs in June 2021. Additionally, I’ve drawn a lower line from the lows near September 2020 across a series of price levels that are acting as support. These two major price channels have converged into a Pennant/Flag type of price formation recently.
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Sunday, October 17, 2021
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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Sunday, October 17, 2021
The Gold Price And Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
An understanding of the relationship between between the gold price and inflation requires historical observation and factual understanding. Below are three specific statements that are rooted in historical fact…
1) GOLD IS REAL MONEY
Lots of things have been used as money during five thousand years of recorded history. Only gold has stood the test of time. It has earned its role as real money because it is the only thing which meets the three specific criteria for money: a measure of value, a medium of exchange, and a store of value.
Gold is and has been easily incorporated into recognizable forms and amounts for use within various standards of weight and measure. Also, gold is scarce, malleable, indestructible and beautiful.
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Sunday, October 17, 2021
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Falling oil demand and bearish US inventories are not of any good to WTI investors. However, a deeper slide might be a great place to enter the trade…
Fundamental Analysis
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has downgraded its estimate of world oil demand for 2021. The demand has been lower than expected so far despite strong prospects for the end of the year.
In fact, in its monthly report, the cartel estimates that oil demand will rebound by 5.82 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year, while it forecast 5.96 mb/d last month.
Sunday, October 17, 2021
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler : Adapt or die.
That was the tough choice facing many small businesses when COVID-19 hit.
It was truly survival of the fittest.
The good news is millions of American entrepreneurs rose to the occasion.
According to CNBC, a record 4.3 million new business applications were processed last year. And 77% of those were online businesses!
Meanwhile, millions of existing mom-and-pop shops rapidly retooled to do business on the internet.
Saturday, October 16, 2021
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
It's now Over 1 year since we bought a Custom Built PC from Overclockers UK for £1,000 for a student to hopefully study hard with, though with the specs to game in spare time. Anyway the desktops been used for a whole year now, does it still work? any issues, where the student who used it gives their 1 year real customer use verdict.
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Saturday, October 16, 2021
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
Altonville Mine Tours, are you brave enough to venture into an abandoned mine? And face the crazy inbred hillibies can you find your way out!. Here' Anika takes us to the start of your scarefest nightmare maze!
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Thursday, October 14, 2021
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market CRASH / Correction
We will soon be moving into the window for a stock market correction where I penciled the probable expectations for it to take place sometime between Mid Sept to Mid October, though it could start earlier hence why I was not willing to wait around and de risked ahead of the window.
How much could the general indices such as the Dow drop? I have in mind a drop of somewhere between 15% to 20% as being the most provable outcome, though it is early days, so it could be less or it could a more but 15% to 20% is what I have had in mind for the likes of the Dow for some time.
Whether it will be just a correction and resume it's raging bull market or signal start of a bear market proper is uncertain, probability favours continuation but this is not 2011 when we were in a hated stealth bull market that few took seriously instead now every tom dick and harry thinks that stocks can only go up! And so will assume that buying the dip is a one way bet to stock market riches. Which is why one needs to focus on VALUATIONS! Buy when Stocks are CHEAP! For it allows one to survive BEAR MARKETs and not end up with a 20 year Dead Parrots like Cisco and Intel!
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Thursday, October 14, 2021
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Folks are freaking out about inflation.
The US government’s own numbers show prices are rising at their fastest pace in 12 years…
Google searches for inflation hit their highest level ever last month…
You’re likely feeling it in your pocket too.
Tried to buy a car lately? If you can get your hands on one, it’ll cost you 40% more than last year.
Home prices are rising at their fastest pace in more than 30 years. And here in Ireland, the average heating bill is expected to jump $500 this winter.
Thursday, October 14, 2021
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: EWI
"I can measure the motions of bodies, but I cannot measure human folly."
Did you know that Sir Isaac Newton "lost his shirt" in the South Sea Bubble of the 1720s?
This great scientist and mathematician lost more than the equivalent of a million 2021 dollars.
Here's a brief description of Newton's investment actions from Robert Prechter's landmark book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance:
[Sir Isaac Newton] invested a little bit early in the trend and "wisely" took a small profit. Watching the trend continue, he finally bet heavily and "wisely" held on for the long run. He eventually sold out at a near-total loss.
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Thursday, October 14, 2021
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
Prepared to be Scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post pandemic frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave kids too! Here Anika tours the Castle that houses the Sub Species maze.
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Thursday, October 14, 2021
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? / Currencies / Nanotech
By: Sumeet_Manhas
NFTs have been taking the world by storm over the last year or so. With some NFTs selling for millions of dollars, lots of investors and collectors are joining the craze all hoping to make a lot of money or collect unique digital art. The value of NFTs will differ, depending on how popular they are or who created them.
To store or exchange non-fungible tokens, users must have an NFT wallet. If you are looking to get into the NFT game, you should first find a wallet that suits your trading requirements. It's not possible to exchange NFTs without having a crypto wallet. Luckily, there are plenty of wallets out there to choose from. It is vital that you get a reputable wallet that protects your NFTs from fraud and hackers.
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Thursday, October 14, 2021
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects / Currencies / British Pound
By: Justin_Weinger
Are you among the millions of financial news watchers who wonder what is going on with the British pound (GBP)? If so, you've probably already noticed that one of the big four currencies has been dropping in recent months. Not since the first few weeks after the Brexit deal took effect has the UK's denominated currency been hit so hard. Its most recent value in terms of US dollars (USD) was $1.357, but what's worrying most traders is the GBP's volatility, which also stands are recent highs. There's no question that the pound is taking a pounding, but two questions are uppermost in the minds of forex enthusiasts:
- How will FX markets react to this recent development?
- What kinds of opportunities does the pound's woes offer to foreign exchange traders?
Wednesday, October 13, 2021
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
How to maximise your desktop computers life without sacrificing performance, how to achieve that sweet spot of overclocking your processor without shortening it's life due to over heating, watch the video and you too can get a full 6 years use out of your system before the silicon starts to fail.
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Tuesday, October 12, 2021
The Demand Shock of 2022 / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Investors are growing cautious as we approach the fourth quarter, and their trepidation is justified. Here’s a brief summary of the situation: there is a potential global financial crisis stemming from the Chinese property market meltdown, supply chain bottlenecks are growing worse, Q3 Earnings warnings are being reported from many large corporations, interest rates are rising, inflation is at a 40-year high, tax hikes are coming in ’22, and the threat of a U.S. debt default still hangs in the air until the end of November.The macroeconomic situation today is one of stagflation. Meaning, inflation rates are higher than normal at the same time GDP growth is slowing. To this point, the data shows that 6.2 million people lost their benefits in the week of September 11tt, as most government pandemic unemployment relief programs expired. These people all need to find a job, and quickly, to supplant that huge government weekly stipend that is now gone. Instead, we find that weekly layoffs are consistently higher than any other time since before the pandemic all the way back through 2015. And, we see that only 194k net new jobs were added during the month of September.
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