Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Iran and North Korea: Brothers in Nuclear Arms / Politics / Nuclear Weapons

By: John_Mauldin

Summary

Remember Iran? The prospect of war with North Korea has made it easy to overlook this other nearly nuclear power that was until recently the object of Washington’s nonproliferation efforts. Tehran was dead set on developing a nuclear weapon, but it agreed to halt its program in 2015 after extensive negotiations with the United States. Granted, the rise of the Islamic State, a common enemy of the United States and Iran, and years of economic attrition wrought by international sanctions forced its hand. Still, Iran has complied with the agreement by subjecting itself to inspections meant to ensure it doesn’t enrich its uranium. 

A nuclear weapons program, however, requires more than just weapons-grade fissile material. It also requires a warhead that is small and sturdy enough to survive the flight on a ballistic missile. And then, of course, it requires the ballistic missile itself – hence the attention North Korean missiles have received lately. North Korea has lots of fissile material. And it most likely has a miniaturized warhead, according to U.S. intelligence officials. Pyongyang is, in other words, one ballistic missile away from being able to strike the United States.

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Kim Jong-un: Biography of a Young Despot / Politics / North Korea

By: John_Mauldin

Cult of personality: a situation in which a public figure (such as a political leader) is deliberately presented to the people of a country as a great person who should be admired and loved. —Merriam Webster

North Koreans have lived under a cult of personality for decades. It is assumed by analysts that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un himself believes in his own demigod myth. Let’s look at how Kim grew up.

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Down Dollar Down: Time for "UP"? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: EWI

Don't rely on after-the-fact headlines. Our charts and forecasts explain how we got here -- and where we're going.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Bitcoin Price Tests Retracement / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

The CFTC is moving to grant another license to a cryptocurrency derivative exchange. On Business Insider, we read:

While most federal regulators in the US have taken a sluggish approach to cryptocurrencies, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been an exception. In September 2015, the body designated cryptocurrencies as commodities, rather than currencies.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Most Tech People Are Too Young To Remember That Silicon Valley Hasn’t Had A Real Crisis In 17 Years / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : Two weeks ago, I took a shot and called the top of the stock market.

My argument is that speculation is getting out of control. And not just on stocks—on Bitcoin, comic books, and all kinds of stuff.

When you have one bubble, others usually follow.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Janet Yellen Just Gave Banks A Secret Hint To Pay Out $100 Billion In Dividends / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Top central bankers choose their words carefully. They know sending the wrong signals can unleash havoc, and they’ll get blamed for it. More important, as masters in acrobatic flip-flopping and backpedaling, they rarely promise a specific outcome.

So when a Fed official does say anything definitive, I pay attention—because it’s almost never an accident.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Gold Bull or Bear? Elliot Meets Bressert / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

I would like to provide an update on what my expectations are with respect to Gold and PMs for the remainder of 2017.

First off, I now no longer feel that early May hosted the ICL for Gold and PMs but I do expect an ICL to unfold in Gold over the next week or so (see my last chart of this post). This update will focus mostly on Cycles analysis but will also bring in some elements of Elliot Wave (EW) Theory that will give you some insight of what I am looking for at the next Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in Gold.  While I am not an EW expert or practitioner, I do understand its concepts and basic rules enough to use it in conjunction with my Cycle work.  Both methodologies try to use Major Lows to determine the direction of the longer Cycles or Waves.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Stage Analysis Gold and US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: SurfCity

This post will use Weinsteins Stage Analysis to examine where we are in both Gold and the USD. For this analysis, I will use Weekly charts and highlight the Weekly 30ema as a guidepost for our analysis.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=394282

First lets start with a bit of History and go back to 1998 to 2002 to examine the transition in Gold and the HUI from Stage 4 Bear, to Stage 1 Basing to Stage 2 Bull Market.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Stock Market Rally May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are breaking down to the trendline, but may not have crossed it yet. SPX passed the 12.9 market day interval for its decline yesterday afternoon. There may be either 8.6 more days, taking the SPX to July 20 (the day before options expiration) or another 12.9 days taking the SPX to the Wednesday following Options expiration. Either way, it may be a wild ride.

ZeroHedge reports, “U.S. index futures point slightly lower open. Asian shares rose while stocks in Europe fell as energy producers got caught in a downdraft in oil prices and reversed an earlier gain after Goldman unexpectedly warned that WTI could slide below $40 absent "show and awe" from OPEC. The dollar rose, hitting a four-month high against the yen and bonds and top emerging market currencies were back under pressure on Tuesday, following last week’s hawkish rhetoric from central bankers.”

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Silver Price Plunge Is Nearing Completion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Silver’s plunge is nearing completion – Bloomberg analyst
– Silver’s 10% sharp fall in seconds remains “mystery”
– Plunge despite anemic global supply and strong demand
– Total silver supply declined in ’16 – lowest level since ’13
– Silver mine production down in ’16, first time in 14 years
– Total silver supply decreased by 32.6 Mln Ozs in 2016
– Supply deficit in 2016- fourth consecutive year (see table)
– “Falling knife” caution but opportunity presenting itself

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

USDJPY Time for a Minor Correction / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: n/a. USD: JOLTS Job Openings, FOMC Member Brainard Speaks.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

One-year Fixed Savings Interest Rates Hit Highest Level Since Base Rate Cut / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts

By: MoneyFacts

It’s now been 11 months since the Bank of England cut the base rate to 0.25%, and many savers will have felt the impact. Thankfully, there have been some signs of life recently, with challenger banks increasing rates considerably on their one-year fixed rate bonds.

According to the latest research by moneyfacts.co.uk, the average one-year fixed bond rate has now hit 1.11%, which is the highest recorded rate since 4 August 2016.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Gold Price Remains in Downtrend from 1295.94 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Franco_Shao

After breaking below the major support trend line from the January 27 low of 1180.51 to the May 9 low of 1214.17 on its daily chart, XAUUSD continued to break below the key support at 1214.17, confirming that the uptrend from the December 2016 low of 1122.56 had completed at the June 6 high of 1295.94 already.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Soaring Global Demand for Lithium Presents Triple-Digit Profit Scenario / Commodities / Lithium

By: WallStreetNation

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

California Communists at War with America / Politics / US Politics

By: BATR

There has always been a distinct California disconnect from the heartland. Anyone who has travelled the lower 48 knows that the allure of El Dorado panned out when the gold mines ran out of bullion. That appeal transformed into a fantasy stargaze that has little to do with the values and traditions of our long history as a nation. In order to understand the query, California Dreaming or a Nightmare?; one needs to appreciate the reasons why the population migration has shifted over time.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Gold Price Outlook Increasingly Bullish / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund is scouring the charts and finds strong bullish developments for gold that could mark the start of a growth phase.

I had thought that gold might escape its usual seasonal malaise this year, but it didn't and went into a rather sharp downtrend and dropped again quite sharply on Friday. The good news though is that this drop has not impacted the big picture at all, which remains strongly bullish, and a bonus is that this drop has flushed out a lot of remaining weak hands, as we will see when we come to the latest COT (Commitment of Traders) charts and set the sector for a reversal soon leading to a strong uptrend.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Sheffield Street Tree Protestors / Campaigners vs Amey Labour City Council 2017 / Local / Sheffield

By: Anika_Walayat

Sheffield tree protestors vs Amey's unnecessary plan to kill and remove at least 6000 of Sheffield's 35,000 street trees. Virtually all of the trees being removed are mature healthy trees so that Amey does not have to undertake maintenance for the duration of their 25 year contract, such as annual pruning or installation of solutions such as flexi-paving as is widespread elsewhere.

Monday, July 10, 2017

Lindsay Stock Market Cycle Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Ed_Carlson

Long-time readers know of Lindsay’s long cycle (points A through M) and that equities should now be in the final basic advance between point I and the secular bull market top at point J.

A basic advance is the equivalent of a cyclical bull market. A basic decline is usually the equivalent of a cyclical bear market but may not always reach the arbitrary 20% sell-off used by the media to define such a decline.

Monday, July 10, 2017

Yellen Goes on Record: The Fed’s Pulling the Plug This Year / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed keeps ringing bells to signal the top, but the markets aren’t listening.

Janet Yellen is set to present the Fed’s Monetary Report to Congress this week. Her remarks have already been posted online.

The results aren’t pretty.

Monday, July 10, 2017

Futures Markets Give High-Volume Gold, Silver Trading Discounts to Governments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason (Money Metals Exchange): It is my privilege now to welcome in Chris Powell, Secretary-Treasurer at the Gold Antitrust Action Committee, also known as GATA. Chris is a long-time journalist and hard money advocate, and through his tireless efforts at GATA he is working to expose the manipulation of the gold and silver markets. Through GATA's work over the years. Some important revelations have come to light, which quite honestly should concern everyone.