Monday, July 17, 2017
Charting New Low in Speculation in Gold and Silver Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets, noting new lows in speculative positions, which should boost prices.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.
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Monday, July 17, 2017
Bitcoin Crash - Is This The End of Cryptocurrencies? / Currencies / Bitcoin
The selloff in cryptocurrencies continues today with bitcoin now falling below $2,000 to a low of $1,841 after hitting its all time high of $3,108.54 on June 11th, marking a 41% drop in the last five weeks.
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Monday, July 17, 2017
The Fed's Inflation Nightmare Scenario / Economics / Inflation
Lior Gantz, founder of Wealth Research Group, analyzes how inflation will likely take off in the U.S., and why all of the condensed energy dammed up by the QE programs and the Fed asset purchases will explode all at once.
Wealth Research Group published an important update on the precious metals sector, which is trading in an unusual pattern, and how the bottom for junior mining shares is likely to play itself out in six to eight months.
For over nine years, central banks have been the front and center of the financial universe.
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Monday, July 17, 2017
Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 / Commodities / Cannabis
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Monday, July 17, 2017
Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come / Politics / Social Issues
Several weeks ago I had to drive west on the Pennsylvania Turnpike to pick up my son after his sophomore year at Penn State. I’ve made this trip a dozen times over the last few years, since this is my second son attending Penn State, with a third starting in the Fall. It’s a tedious, boring, protracted, four hour trek through the rural countryside of the Keystone State. During these trips my mind wanders, making connections between the landscape and the pressing issues facing the world. I can’t help but get lost in my thoughts as the miles accumulate like dollars on the national debt clock.
More often than not I end up making the trip in the midst of bad weather. And this time was no different. The Pennsylvania Turnpike is a meandering, decades old, dangerous, mostly two lane highway for most of its 360 mile span. Large swaths of the decaying interstate are under construction, as the narrative about lack of infrastructure spending is proven false by visual proof along the highways and byways of America.
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Monday, July 17, 2017
Gold and Silver Biggest Opportunity Since Late 2015, Last Chance at These Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Technical analyst Clive Maund's analysis of the charts is indicating that gold and silver are positioning for a big move upward.
We've had to wait 18 months for an opportunity as big as the one we saw late in 2015 to appear again in the Precious Metals sector. "Wait a minute", I hear you say, "prices were generally lower back then at that low than they are now, so how can it be as big an opportunity, as leverage is reduced?". Here are the reasons, one technical, the other fundamental. When prices rose out of the late 2015 low, which was the Head of the Head-and-Shoulders bottom shown to advantage on the 10-year chart for GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF) below, they were destined to retrace to mark out the Right Shoulder of the pattern, which is what now has most investors very negative towards the sector again.
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Monday, July 17, 2017
Why Jobs Growth No Longer Induces Wage Growth in America / Economics / Economic Theory
Or The Eclipse of the Phillips Curve in AmericaWhile the Fed’s continued tightening may suppress growth in emerging economies, US labor market may not be as strong as recent reports suggest.
US experienced strong job growth in June, when the economy created 222,000 net new jobs, which exceeded analyst expectations. At the Federal Reserve, the jobs report boosted confidence US economy is on the track for new rate hikes in the fall.
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Monday, July 17, 2017
Stock Market More to Go / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues with a serious loss of upside momentum in weekly indicators.
SPX Intermediate trend: An ending diagonal appears to be in its last stage of completion .
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 16, 2017
Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Calm Before the Storm / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
“In truth, however, nothing is inevitable and very little is new. And tech is no more the root of the problem than are trade or globalization. Many of our most vaunted innovations are simply methods -- electronic or otherwise -- of pulling off some age-old profit-maximizing maneuver by new and unregulated means.” Thomas Frank
“It is my purpose, as one who lived and acted in these days, first to show how easily the tragedy of the Second World War could have been prevented; how the malice of the wicked was reinforced by the weakness of the virtuous.” Winston S. Churchill, The Gathering Storm
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Sunday, July 16, 2017
The Technical Failure That Could Clear The Oil Glut In A Matter Of Weeks / Commodities / Crude Oil
OPEC exports have come under pressure this week from technical threats to oil fields, with Saudi Arabia’s Manifa problems grabbing the headlines.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, while addressing the World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul, stated that the outlook for oil supplies is “increasingly worrying”, due to a loss of $1 trillion ($1000 billion) in investments last year. The skepticism shown by a majority of financial analysts and oil commentators about the real threat to global oil (and gas) production volumes was countered by the news that the production at Saudi Aramco’s main offshore oil field, Manifa, has been hit by technical problems. News sources reported that the output from Saudi Aramco's massive Manifa oilfield has been hit by a technical problem.
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Sunday, July 16, 2017
Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together / Commodities / Resources Investing
While most members are focused on the precious metals ,I’ve been waiting patiently for two other sectors to setup a long term buy signal which I believe happened last week. I know you are well aware of my mantra that big consolidation patterns lead to big impulse moves. What’s pretty amazing is these 2 sectors have an almost identical long term consolidation pattern and are breaking out at the same time. It stands to reason that if the Emerging Markets are going to be strong then the Basic Materials sector should benefit as well.
Most like to look at the EEM, emerging market index, but there is another emerging market index which trades with much more volume, VWO which I will use in this post. Lets start with just a simple daily line chart for VWO which shows a H&S bottom in place and a breakout yesterday of the blue bullish rising flag. Keep those two patterns in the back of your mind when we look at the longer term charts.
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Saturday, July 15, 2017
Stock Market SPX Uptrending Again After Microscopic Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The market started the week at SPX 2425. After a rally to SPX 2432 on Monday, the market pulled back to 2413 on Tuesday before reversing in the afternoon. Wednesday’s gap up opening rally continued into Friday, when the SPX hit a new all-time high at 2464. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.90%. Economic reports were mostly positive. On the downtick: the Q2 GDP estimate, retail sales, consumer sentiment, plus the budget deficit widened. On the uptick: consumer credit, business/wholesale inventories, the PPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, plus jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the NY/Philly FED and housing.
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Saturday, July 15, 2017
COT Report Gets Even More Favorable For Gold And Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Just a quick, happy update on the gold/silver COT reports. See last week’s post for a little more background.
Speculators are running scared in the paper precious metals markets. And that’s a good thing.
The past few months’ correction has finally led hedge funds and other technical/momentum traders to shed their long positions and load up on short bets. Meanwhile the Commercials, which tend to be right at big turning points, are becoming much more bullish.
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Saturday, July 15, 2017
Bitcoin, All Cryptocurrencies Are Collapsing! We Are Witnessing End of Blockchain! / Currencies / Bitcoin
Just kidding, again.
We are continuing to see bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies sell-off, however, just as we said they should and would do after such a parabolic spike higher in the last few months.
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Saturday, July 15, 2017
GOLD Bullish Price Action - DOW Contracting Triangle / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index.
Saturday, July 15, 2017
Is the Stock Market All Knowing? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
“The tape tells all” is a Wall Street bromide we’re all familiar with. It neatly summarizes the belief that the major averages discount everything pertaining to the business outlook. It’s also a basic tenet of Dow Theory.
Writing a century ago, Richard Wyckoff was one of the very first market pundits to put this belief in writing. “The tape tells the news minutes, hours and days before the news tickers or newspapers and before it can become current gossip,” he wrote. “Everything from a foreign war to the passing of a dividend; from a Supreme Court decision to the ravages of the boll-weevil is reflected primarily upon the tape.”
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Friday, July 14, 2017
Bubble Update: Stocks Are Now at 1999 Bubble Levels (Guess What’s Next) / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
Remember the 2007 Bubble?
Remember how everyone said that it really wasn’t that big of a bubble because stocks weren’t as expensive as they had been during the previous bubble (the Tech Bubble).
We all remember how that turned out: the bubble burst leading to the greatest financial crisis in 80 years.
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Friday, July 14, 2017
Yellen’s Shocking Announcement:The $USD is TOAST / Currencies / US Dollar
Fed Chair Janet Yellen just announced that the Fed will be kicking the $USD off a cliff.
She didn’t use those words, but the words she did use weren’t all that different.
But first a little context…
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Friday, July 14, 2017
Global Currency Reserve At Risk / Currencies / Fiat Currency
Within the US borders, the population remains largely ignorant of the true significance of the global currency reserve concept. It is of paramount importance, yet almost never discussed in the financial press. The public within the United States simply assumes the country operates with the USDollar as its currency, with near blindness to its global role in trade and banking. The end of an era is coming, as the change will be powerful in its effect. The shock wave could hit this year in some form, in a manner to highlight its importance.
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Friday, July 14, 2017
Picking Great Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
One of the primary keys to success in investment and speculation is picking the right stocks to trade. That’s no mean feat, as it takes great effort, expertise, and time to winnow the whole field down to the likely winners with the best fundamentals. Although deeply out of favor now in the summer doldrums, the small contrarian gold-stock sector has generated truly epic gains for investors and speculators over the years.
I’ve been in the financial-newsletter business for 17 years now, after founding my company Zeal LLC way back in early 2000. I needed to do extensive markets and individual-stocks research to support my own personal speculation and investment, so I figured why not share it so others can benefit as well. Since then I’ve researched and written 765 web essays, 204 monthly newsletters, and 748 weekly newsletters.
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