Friday, July 07, 2017

UK Election Forecasting - YouGov Snatches Defeat from the Jaws of Victory! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The most notable outlier forecast of the 2017 UK general election was YouGov's seats forecast announced about 2 weeks prior to the general election that was contrary to every other pollster and analysts at the time. Initially YouGov forecast that the Tories would only achieve 310 seats.

Friday, July 07, 2017

Silver Prices Bounce Higher After Futures Manipulated 7% Lower In Minute / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Silver prices ‘flash crash’ before rebound
– Silver hammered 7% lower in less than minute in Asian trading
– Silver fell from $16 to $14.82, before recovering to $15.89
– Silver plunge blamed on another ‘trading error’
– Gold similar ‘flash crash’ last week and similar recovery
– Hallmarks of market manipulation as $450 million worth of silver futures sold in minute
– Trading ‘errors’ always push gold and silver lower. Why never higher?
– ‘Flash crashes’ increasingly frequent in precious metals, yet rarely happen in stocks and bonds
– Rapid recovery from frequent raids bodes well for precious metals
– Silver coins and bars accumulated on dips by ‘stackers’

Friday, July 07, 2017

Gold Seasonal - The Golden Age Has Just Begun / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Dimitri_Speck

In recent issues of Seasonal Insights I have discussed two asset classes that tend to suffer performance problems in most years until the autumn, namely stocks and bitcoin.

I thought you might for a change want to hear of an asset that will be in a seasonal uptrend over coming months.

Such assets do of course exist, and one that has particularly good prospects at the moment is gold.

Friday, July 07, 2017

UK House Prices the Most Accurate General Election Forecast Predictor / ElectionOracle / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK house prices wealth effect once more proved to be the MOST accurate forecaster for the outcome of UK general elections i.e. April house prices data implied 342 Tory seats, which far more reliable when compared to the a range of forecast expectations primarily by pollster based analysts that extended 375 seats just prior to polling day.

Friday, July 07, 2017

The Fed Just Admitted, On RECORD, Stocks Are In a Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: Graham_Summers

Yesterday, the Fed made the single largest announcement of the last 10 years.

The media didn’t catch it. Nor did the markets.

The reason?

Friday, July 07, 2017

A Crash is Coming.... Last Time This Happened Was Spring 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

Perhaps the single most accurate predictor of the economy has rolled over into recession territory.

I’m talking about tax revenues.

GDP growth, unemployment data, ISM surveys… all of these can and are massaged by statisticians to create a rosier picture of the economy than reality. By way of example, we recently noted that 95% of all net job growth since 2008 was in fact created via an accounting gimmick. In reality, the jobs were never created at all.

Friday, July 07, 2017

GOLD Flashing Bullish Signals Again, USDJPY Contracting Triangle in Play / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Fed Monetary Policy Report.

USDJPY has spent the week going sideways in a contracting range.
This price action is beginning to look like a contracting triangle,
Possibly within wave '4' pink.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Here’s Why This G20 Meeting Doesn’t Really Matter / Politics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Anyone who has ever been to a meeting knows that meetings are often confounding, frustrating affairs. Most of them are designed simply to be held. The people who attend them are unlikely to agree on anything except maybe the date of the next one.

The G-20 summit is no exception.

But that’s only because the people who attend it, the leaders of the countries with the world’s 20 largest economies, think of themselves as decision-makers when really they are hostages to history.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

This Graphic Shows the Reach of North Korea’s Most Successful Missile Test / Politics / North Korea

By: John_Mauldin

RiskEdge: Kim Jong-un is variously seen as a fantasy-sodden rattler of sabers or a mad and dangerous threat to global peace.

Whichever more closely approximates the truth, the world is watching North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile quest ever more uneasily.

And on May 14, the pariah state embarked on its most successful missile test yet:

Thursday, July 06, 2017

North vs. South Korea: The Human Divide / Politics / North Korea

By: John_Mauldin

RiskEdge : The wildly differing trajectories of North and South Korea since they were divided at the end of World War II are well known.

Slightly murkier are the very human statistics illustrating the differences between the two. The paranoically secretive nature of North Korea means that a wealth of data is difficult to come by, but the most reliable data available is striking.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

6 Things Precious Metals Naysayers Get Dead Wrong / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Stefan Gleason : Answering the Most Common and Current Objections

Gold attracts its fair share of detractors. But the most common objections to gold as money, and as a safe-haven asset within an investment portfolio, are misplaced. Anti-gold myths are ubiquitous.

Mega billionaire Warren Buffett remarked derisively of gold that it “gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Don’t Hold Your Breath For Deeper OPEC Oil Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The rally in oil prices over the past two weeks came to a halt on Wednesday on news that OPEC is actually exporting more oil than previously thought.

A month ago, oil prices appeared to be higher than they should have been, with weak demand, elevated inventories, and a recognition that the nine-month OPEC extension would be inadequate to balance the market. Oil sold off and dropped to the mid-$40s and below. Oil traders then bought on the dip, and bid prices back up over the past two weeks. Now, prices again look like they could be reaching an upper limit.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

The Whole Foods And Amazon Merger Is A Sign Of The Major Trend Every Investor Should Be Aware Of / Companies / Mergers & Acquisitions

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : If you are a shareholder in either Amazon (AMZN) or Whole Foods Market (WFM), their combination ought to please you. 

Both stocks rose on the merger news while the rest of the grocery industry dropped. But in the long run, I’m not sure their deal will work out well for any of us.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

London Workers Real Earnings Still below 2007 in 27 Boroughs / Economics / Wages

By: Submissions

EARNINGS IN 27 LONDON BOROUGHS STILL BELOW 2007 LEVEL ONCE INFLATION HAS BEEN TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT NEW GMB STUDY SHOWS

Impunity for employers hostility towards workers rights is maybe more important than the pay cap in the public sector in holding down pay in the private sector says GMB London region

The real value of earnings for all full-time employees resident in London has dropped by 17.9% between April 2007 and April 2016 a new GMB London Region analysis of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings shows.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Stock Market Uncertainty Near Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,510, and profit target at 2,300, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, July 06, 2017

US Fed and Mainstream Media’s Moronic Statements On The Whole Foods Buyout / Companies / Corporate News

By: Jeff_Berwick

It’s already bad enough we live in a world overpopulated by idiots. Worse, they are often in charge of ‘the monetary system’ and even head up ‘the media’! Luckily for tomorrow, entrepreneurs are busy developing a decentralized crypto-monetary platform for a money that nobody can control, and an alternative media, of which we are part.

One recent article encompassed precisely the unnecessity of the stupidity of central bankers and their mainstream financial media lapdogs.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Sheffield Chelsea Road Elm Tree, 1 of 6,000 Trees Amey / Labour City Council to Fell / Local / Sheffield

By: Anika_Walayat

The Chelsea Road Elm tree is probably the most prominent of thousands of Sheffield's big trees that are under a death sentence by Amey / City Council. Already over 4000 trees have been felled and likely by the time Amey / Labour city council are finished another 4,000 could have been felled, about 1/4 of Sheffield's big tree populations binge wiped out! And where it will take several decades for any replacement saplings to fill the voids left on Sheffield's streets. So where once Sheffield had tree lined suburbs, now many streets are set to become barren concrete wastelands.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Italy Has Ignored ECB Regulations And Bailed Out Its Banks Again / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2017

By: John_Mauldin

By Xander Snyder : The Italian government has bailed out its banks again. Unwittingly, it has shown just how ineffective the European Central Bank is.

Rome recently finalized a deal to save one of the country’s largest and most important commercial banks, Monte dei Paschi di Siena. In another deal, Intesa Sanpaolo, a much more stable bank, will bail out Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza.

Both agreements involve Italian government funds and prevent senior creditors from incurring losses. That skirts the European Union’s strictest banking regulations, which allow Brussels to impose losses on senior bondholders.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Mark Yusko Warns to Get Out Of Stock Index Funds Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : The market cap of FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) are up $260 billion since March 1. Meanwhile, the market cap of the other 495 companies in the S&P 500 are down $260 billion.

This is a textbook example of unsustainable growth, yet it has largely fallen on deaf ears for many investors.

Speaking at the Mauldin Economics’ Strategic Investment Conference, Mark Yusko, Founder and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, dissected this and the other biggest risks—along with opportunities—in financial markets today.

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Few People Grasp What Geopolitical Power Shale Oil Gives To The US / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: John_Mauldin

I know no one else with George Friedman’s breadth and depth of insight into today’s world.

Right at the root of today’s major global issues, we find one little word: oil. So, I’ve asked George to bring us up to speed on the geopolitical implications of a remarkable phenomenon: the US shale oil industry.

There is good news here for the US, but big bad news for Saudi Arabia and Russia—and in fact any country with oil exports as its main source of income.

But without further ado, I’ll let George and his team enlighten you on this development themselves.