Wednesday, August 02, 2017
Why Slumping Auto Sales May Not Say What You Think They Say / Companies / US Auto's
By: F_F_Wiley
July auto sales (released today and charted below) remained weak and should trigger a few recession forecasts. In fact, over the past few months we’ve read about half a dozen commentaries linking the recent plunge in auto sales to an imminent recession. And we understand the reasoning, but we’ve yet to buy into it.
We agree that car sellers face a degree of demand saturation while potential buyers suffer from credit saturation, or at least that’s what the data seem to show. We also agree that the saturation twins tend to be late-cycle indicators. But we’d like to add another possible explanation for slowing auto sales, one that yields a different conclusion about recession risks.
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Wednesday, August 02, 2017
Gold and Silver Seasonality an Advantage to Seasoned Investors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Many investors rightly believe that the gold and silver markets are moved most by geopolitical events, monetary policy, shifting economic paradigms such as inflation or deflation, and a number of other factors - most of which are covered regularly in this newsletter. Few know that there is another aspect to gold and silver's price behavior and that is its seasonality, as shown in the charts immediately below. Seasoned physical precious metals investors often time their purchases during the so-called "summer doldrums" when business is quiet and prices are down. It doesn't always work out that the price trends higher in the second half of the year. (Last year, for example, gold hit its peak of the year in July – the heart of the doldrums.) Given a 20-year history, though, it happens enough to warrant attention. Here we are in August – the month, as you can see, that offers a last chance before we move into the fall and winter busy season and its traditional predisposition to higher prices.
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Wednesday, August 02, 2017
Trump, the CIA and the Yokeldom / Politics / US Politics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The western world is mired in a mile-deep political crisis and nary a soul seems to notice, or rather: everyone just sees their own little preferred echochamber tidbits of it. Which is not a good thing, because that crisis is bound to trigger other bigger crises that are much more damaging. And I’m sorry to say it, but Donald Trump is not your main problem. Not even close.
The main problem is the collapse of western political systems. While that is what brought Trump to power in the first place, he didn’t cause the collapse. The collapse is also what ‘gave you’ Brexit, and Trump didn’t cause that either. Moreover, in the next step, on the far end of all this, Trump may well be the only thing standing between you and CIA warfare. I know, who wants to hear that, right?! Who’s ready for that next step?
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Wednesday, August 02, 2017
What a US Dollar Rebound Means for Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The decline in the US$ index in 2017 has been relentless. From a high of nearly 104 at the end of 2016, the US$ index has steadily declined to as low as 93.00. While this has certainly fueled the strength in precious metals, it has not been able to lift the sector as much as typically expected. That is because Gold’s performance relative to other assets has been weak and much weaker than in 2016. Friday Gold broke above key resistance of $1260/oz but it remains below its 2017 highs as the US$ index tests support amid a very oversold condition and negative sentiment. Simply put, Gold will have to prove itself in real terms if it is going to hold its ground or breakout as the US$ begins a likely bounce.
Wednesday, August 02, 2017
GBP/USD - Will Currency Bulls Break above Long-term Resistances? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although GBP/USD moved higher once again earlier today, currency bulls approached two very important resistances on their way to higher levels. Will they be strong enough to push the exchange rate above them?
Wednesday, August 02, 2017
Bitcoin in Trading Range / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
The BTC-e debacle continues with the U.S. government seizing the exchange’s website. Now, BTC-e has its data center seized by the FBI. On CoinDesk, we read:
(…) in a statement on the Bitcoin Talk forum (that was tweeted out via its official account), representatives for the exchange issued new comments, including a pledge to return users' funds.
Wednesday, August 02, 2017
Alton Towers Discount Voucher Half Price Entry ANY TIME, No Pre-Booking! / Personal_Finance / Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
It's the summer holidays once more and so once it stops raining many UK families will be off on day trips to the UK's various theme parks, with Alton Towers definitely at the top of the list especially for the 12's and over's.
Whilst there are the usual promotions on the breakfast cereals running, such as Adults go free with a paying child. The only problem with these offers are that according to Alton Towers to be a child you have to be under 12!
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– What investors can learn from the Japanese art of Kintsukuroi or Kintsugi – art of repairing broken pottery with gold
– Investors and savers can protect their savings with gold
– Savers and investors are being punished by negative to low interest rates
– Global debt levels, stock bubbles and reduced liquidity will lead to crisis
– Reinforce cracks with gold prior to money pot shatters
Tuesday, August 01, 2017
A Reversal Coming To U.S. Major Stock Indexes? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.
Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Markets Are Virtually Risk-Free / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Avi_Gilburt
For the last year, I have been looking for what we classify as a wave (3) to strike the 2500SPX region. And, now, we are getting quite close.
Meanwhile, this rally has brought out two camps of market expectations at this juncture, both of which I believe are wearing blinders. We read about those who believe the markets basically have no limit to their upside, and are "virtually risk-free," and we read those who have "known" that the market will imminently crash during this entire 40% rally since February 2016.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Can Germany Be Made Great Again? / Politics / Germany
By: Antonius_Aquinas
When Germany Was Great!
Ever since the start of the deliberately conceived “migrant crisis,” orchestrated by NWO elites, the news out of Germany has been, to say the least, horrific. Right before the eyes of the world, a country is being demographically destroyed through a coercive plan of mass migration. The intended consequences of this – financial strain, widespread crime and property destruction, the breakdown of German culture – will continue to worsen if things are not turned around.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Trump’s Trade War Will Trigger The Biggest Wave Of Automation in History / Politics / Robotics
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : War is coming—the signs are everywhere.
Last week, US and Chinese negotiators met in Washington to cap the 100-day dialogue that Presidents Trump and Xi promised at their April summit.
It didn’t go well.
The joint statement reported no new agreements, and both sides canceled their planned press conferences.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
The Fed’s Monetary Tantrum Will Push The Economy Into Outright Deflation / Interest-Rates / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
It is increasingly evident that the US economy is not taking off like some predicted after the election.
President Trump and the Republicans haven’t passed any of the fiscal stimulus measures we hoped to see. Banks and energy companies have got some regulatory relief, and that helps. But it’s a far cry from the sweeping healthcare reform, tax cuts, and infrastructure spending we were promised.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
NASDAQ Composite Stocks Index Should Pullback Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
The following video/chart shows NASDAQ composite index. The index has a tremendous rally since the lows around 1975 which is pretty close to the zero level. The index has reached the bottom of the blue box at 6219 area. The question then is whether the index will extend higher or start correcting lower as the minimal target has been reached. As we often say, Elliott wave theory by itself is not enough. In this case, we can see that from the zero line, we can count the index as a completed ABC. However, we can also count it as an incomplete ABC with a black((4)) still to happen. In the Elliott wave theory, any five waves structure always at one moment is a three wave move. It is therefore too early at this stage to determine if the rally will develop into a five waves move.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Crude Oil – Gold Link in July / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, crude oil moved higher and hit a July peak supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and bullish Wednesday’s EIA weekly report. As a result, the black gold climbed above the 200-day moving average, but is it enough to trigger a rally above $50?
Tuesday, August 01, 2017
GBPUSD Broke Above Channel Resistance / Currencies / British Pound
By: Franco_Shao
GBPUSD broke above the descending price channel at 1.3100 on its weekly chart, indicating that lengthier correction for the long term downtrend from the July 2014 high of 1.7190 is needed.
Tuesday, August 01, 2017
When Fiat Currencies Die - Preparing to Barter and Trade Is NOT a Loony Idea / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Let’s start with this fact; fiat (paper) currencies die – often spectacularly. That is why precious metals may someday be needed for barter and trade. Anyone who thinks it is silly to worry about such a thing is putting blind faith in Federal Reserve Notes.
The U.S. dollar is having a great run, no question. It will soon be 50 years since Nixon closed the gold window, thereby converting the dollar to a purely fiat currency. Five decades is longer than most purely fiat currencies survive.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Stock Market Bears Are Getting Desperate / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last weekend, I noted that I expect the market to move up towards the 2487SPX region before we are able to see a market top. And, this past week, we struck a high of 2484.04, and saw a strong reaction to the downside.
While the market has continued higher since February 2016 as I expected, we have all read those articles which suggest the top is going to be seen any day now. And, yes, we have seen them almost daily for the entire 40% rally we have experienced since that time.
Many analysts have been pointing to so many different reasons as to why they believe the market is “wrong.” And many more have pointed to reasons they expected the market to crash imminently, such as terrorist attacks, Brexit, Frexit, Trump election, cessation of QE, interest rate hikes, and many more that we all have read. Yes, most were quite certain that the market would never see its current heights and have fought this rally tooth and nail.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Here’s The Real Reason The Fed Is Making Absurd Monetary Decisions / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
I have often written about the Fed's abysmal track record in managing the economy. Here Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management explain the reasons for the Fed's consistently poor track record.
They start by considering the Fed’s “dual mandate,” which sets “the goals of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.” (And yes, that is actually three goals, not two.)
But a problem arises, the authors note, “because considerable time elapses between the implementation of the monetary actions designed to follow the mandate and when the impact of those actions take effect on broader business conditions.”
The time lag can easily be three years or longer, with the result that policy changes often end up being pro-rather than countercyclical. To make matters even worse, “the economic risks from adherence to this dual mandate are now much greater than historically due to the economy’s extreme over-indebtedness, poor demographics and a fragile global economy.”
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
The Myths and Realities of Duterte’s Infrastructure Initiative / Politics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
A huge upgrade of infrastructure is vital for Philippines economic future. That’s why it is contested by entrenched interests, including foreign powers. This is the first in a series of occasional commentaries about the Philippines transformation from an international viewpoint.In the past year, President Duterte has initiated a series of economic reforms to accelerate economic development. Despite much “political noise,” the government seeks sustained growth around 6.5- 7% in 2017, by banking on multiple initiatives, especially higher infrastructure spending.
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