Saturday, July 29, 2017
Investors Beating U.S. Stock Market Can Be Simple / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Adam_ODell
Americans like to buy American stocks.
Europeans prefer European stocks.
And Chinese investors… well, you guessed it, they go heavily into Chinese stocks.
This is the essence of a phenomenon called home country bias.
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Saturday, July 29, 2017
Baby Boomers Are Aging Quickly and Here’s How You Can Benefit / Companies / Demographics
By: Charles_Sizemore
If you’ve followed my writing for any length of time, you know how much respect I have for Harry and his demographic work.Believe it or not, Harry, and his approach to forecasting, gave me the confidence to help launch Peak Income – an income newsletter – at a time when most investors were terrified of yield-focused investments.
The consensus two years ago was that inflation and higher bond yields were just around the corner, which would’ve meant a rough ride for the kind of investments I recommend.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Silly Money Printing, Negative Real Rates, & Restricted Supply Form “Great Scenario for Gold” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager for 2016 by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing. And is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals Podcast.
Frank, welcome back and thanks for joining us again today. How are you?
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Professor Warns of Economic and Health Costs of Sheffield Tree Felling's / Local / Sheffield
By: Anika_Walayat
Professor Nigel Dunnett of the University of Sheffield today on BBC Look North warned of the economic and health consequences of the Amey / Labour City Council's extensive Sheffield trees felling programme that is now entering it's final stages with just 10% of 6000 targeted trees remaining standing. Whist the Council continues with is court case against Tree campaigners.
Friday, July 28, 2017
Weakening US Economy Could Ignite Rally in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
John Grandits : One possible effect of the “America First” approach the Trump Administration vowed to take was a weaker US dollar. Shortly after we wrote about this earlier this year, the dollar index began a steady march lower, retreating 7% in just five months, from 102 in March to its current level of 95.
Not surprisingly, gold has risen almost 10% in US dollar terms during this time.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Fed Quantitative Tightening Bearish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
Ominously for the stock markets, the Federal Reserve is warning that quantitative tightening is coming later this year. The Fed is on the verge of starting to drain its vast seas of new money conjured out of thin air over the past decade or so. The looming end of this radically-unprecedented easy-money era is exceedingly bearish for these lofty stock markets, which have been grossly inflated for years by Fed QE.
Way back in December 2008, the first US stock panic in an entire century left the Fed frantic. Fearful of an extreme negative wealth effect spawning another depression, the Fed quickly forced its benchmark federal-funds rate to zero. Once that zero-interest-rate policy had been implemented, no more rate cuts were practical. ZIRP is terribly disruptive economically, fueling huge distortions. But negative rates are far worse.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
BEA US Economy Q2 2017 Estimates GDP Growth At 2.56% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +2.56% annual rate, up +1.14% from a downward revised first quarter.
Consumer spending rebounded, growing at a +1.93% annualized rate during the quarter, up +1.18% from the prior quarter and very similar to the fourth quarter of 2016. The inventory contraction of the prior quarter essentially disappeared (-0.02%), as did the previous robust growth in commercial fixed investment (at only +0.36%). Governmental spending rose slightly (+0.12%), reversing the prior quarter's contraction, and the growth rates for both exports (+0.48%) and imports (-0.31%) moderated.
Friday, July 28, 2017
Platinum and Palladium Investment Potential / Commodities / Platinum
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the previous sections of this edition of the Market Overview, we presented the demand and supply outlook for platinum and palladium. In that part, we would like to analyze the potential benefits of adding these precious metals into investment portfolio.
On the surface, platinum and palladium behave similarly to the yellow metal. Indeed, as the chart below shows, there is an important positive correlation between prices of these metals and gold. It should not be surprising as all four main precious metals – gold, silver, platinum, and palladium – are considered as currency, with an appropriate ISO 4217 code.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Why Russia’s Slumping Grain Yields Are So Bad For Putin / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
By Geopolitical Futures : Russia relies on wheat more than any other foodstuff as an important component of its food supply. In fact, roughly 70% of wheat produced in Russia annually is consumed domestically. From Siberia to the westernmost regions bordering Europe, wheat is a staple in most parts of the country.
In 2016, Russia became the world’s top grain exporter with a record production of 120 million tons of wheat, according to Russian statistics agency Rosstat. But poor weather conditions have affected this year’s production.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Likely Trigger A Global Recession By End Of 2018 / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
Exactly 10 years ago, we were months way from a world-shaking financial crisis.
By late 2006, we had an inverted yield curve steep to be a high-probability indicator of recession. I estimated at that time that the losses would be $400 billion at a minimum. Yet, most of my readers and fellow analysts told me I was way too bearish.
Turned out the losses topped well over $2 trillion and triggered the financial crisis and Great Recession.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Could USD/JPY go into Freefall? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are down, but have not exceeded yesterday’s intraday low.
Today being Friday, there may be an effort to keep the decline from going too low. That suggests a probable bounce at Short-term support at 2457.17 to rally back to breakeven by the end of the day. Should this take place, it may offer another short entry opportunity by the end of the day. But this is only one outcome out of several possible scenarios. A second scenario may be an immediate launch into a Wave three scenario with a minimum 8-12% decline in the next three days. Yesterday may have been day one of a 4.3-day panic Cycle.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Will USD/CAD Drop Further? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, the greenback extended losses against the Canadian dollar, which resulted in a drop below the May 2016 low. Does it mean that the way to lower levels is open?
EUR/USD
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Stock Market XIV Starting To Crack And The VIX Ends Its Streak / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Submissions
Mike Golembesky: Recent Price Action
This week the XIV continued to grind higher finally reaching a high of 96.98 on Wednesday afternoon. This high was followed by a very small move to the downside late in the day on Wednesday.
Thursday morning saw a slight recovery but by the noon lunch hour, the XIV started showing signs of weakness. By 12:30 the XIV began to move sharply lower finally bottoming at the 89.28 level, some 7.5% off of the high of the day.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Euro Bearish, Stocks Topping, Gold Bullish Interpretation / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave
Long term wave count: lower in wave (3) red
Important risk events: EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m. USD: Advance GDP q/q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.
Friday, July 28, 2017
Sugar Commodity Investors: "Desperately Seeking..." Clarity and Objectivity / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Congratulations, Elliott wave analysis is your ideal match
Over the last two years, sugar futures have crashed and spiked and crashed again -- much like a diabetic without insulin.
After plummeting to an 8-year low in September 2015, sugar prices then doubled in a stunning rally to a 4-year high in September 2016, only to turn back down in a 40% sell-off to19-month lows in late June 2017, where they linger to this day.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Short the Bounces in Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is giving an aggressive sell signal. Not much more to say. Take the usual precautions.
Thursday, July 27, 2017
When You Think It Can’t Get Worse, The Markets Become Even More Absurd / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : The market is up 2% since I called the top a month ago.
Financial newsletters are now stuffed with bubble porn—their favorite subject is complaining about how overpriced everything is. As a financial writer, it’s tough to stay fresh when that’s all there is to talk about.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
US Dollar - Make Way For Uncle Buck / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
It has been a contrarian trade that has not yet worked out; by that I mean my short position on the Euro and preparation for a firming US dollar. Yesterday the market cheered the supposedly dovish Fed, and USD got smeared again as the world’s counter party paper boosted assets far and wide… on nothing but perceptions and a hell of a lot of momentum and gaming on FOMC day.
USD opened weak again today but so far at least, is sporting a Hammer which, if it stays in play, would be a bullish reversal candle.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
China May Not Have Stopped North Korea’s Nuclear Program Deliberately / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The United States and China met to discuss trade issues.
The meeting ended without agreement on anything. The obligatory joint press conference after the talks, where everyone pretends that everything was fine, was canceled.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
Stock Market Levitation Continues... For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
A closer look at the SPX shows that one more probe higher completes the Wave pattern. This morning’s SPX futures may have done the job already, but we await the open to see the result in the cash Index. There is a possible target where Wave v equals Wave I at 2492.42.