Friday, July 28, 2017
Euro Bearish, Stocks Topping, Gold Bullish Interpretation / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave
Long term wave count: lower in wave (3) red
Important risk events: EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m. USD: Advance GDP q/q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.
Friday, July 28, 2017
Sugar Commodity Investors: "Desperately Seeking..." Clarity and Objectivity / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Congratulations, Elliott wave analysis is your ideal match
Over the last two years, sugar futures have crashed and spiked and crashed again -- much like a diabetic without insulin.
After plummeting to an 8-year low in September 2015, sugar prices then doubled in a stunning rally to a 4-year high in September 2016, only to turn back down in a 40% sell-off to19-month lows in late June 2017, where they linger to this day.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
Short the Bounces in Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is giving an aggressive sell signal. Not much more to say. Take the usual precautions.
Thursday, July 27, 2017
When You Think It Can’t Get Worse, The Markets Become Even More Absurd / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : The market is up 2% since I called the top a month ago.
Financial newsletters are now stuffed with bubble porn—their favorite subject is complaining about how overpriced everything is. As a financial writer, it’s tough to stay fresh when that’s all there is to talk about.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
US Dollar - Make Way For Uncle Buck / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
It has been a contrarian trade that has not yet worked out; by that I mean my short position on the Euro and preparation for a firming US dollar. Yesterday the market cheered the supposedly dovish Fed, and USD got smeared again as the world’s counter party paper boosted assets far and wide… on nothing but perceptions and a hell of a lot of momentum and gaming on FOMC day.
USD opened weak again today but so far at least, is sporting a Hammer which, if it stays in play, would be a bullish reversal candle.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
China May Not Have Stopped North Korea’s Nuclear Program Deliberately / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The United States and China met to discuss trade issues.
The meeting ended without agreement on anything. The obligatory joint press conference after the talks, where everyone pretends that everything was fine, was canceled.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
Stock Market Levitation Continues... For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
A closer look at the SPX shows that one more probe higher completes the Wave pattern. This morning’s SPX futures may have done the job already, but we await the open to see the result in the cash Index. There is a possible target where Wave v equals Wave I at 2492.42.
Thursday, July 27, 2017
Gold Cycle Outlook : Cautiously Bullish / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: SurfCity
I am cautiously bullish with today’s new high in Gold and GDX on day 13. Silver also made a new high on day 12 but is still lagging Gold out of the recent low. Note that I have used GLD and SLV in my charts today as the price prints for Gold and Silver on Stockcharts were bogus once again.
Why cautiously bullish? During the long Bear from the secondary high in 2012, almost every Failed Gold Trading Cycle topped on day 10 or earlier. There were a couple that topped on day 11 and one on day 12 as I recall but day 12 was the longest uptrend we saw into a failed Trading Cycle. That said, I am still cautious as my charts will show that PM’s still have much work to do to break out of this sideways pattern that they have been in for much of 2017.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
Is Big Oil planning its Funeral by ignoring the obvious? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
Many of the reports published that cover oil consumption and how quickly consumers will embrace Electric Vehicles (EV) paint a far rosier outlook for the future of oil than the facts dictate. The reason is simple; most of these reports tend to be written or sponsored by big oil and so they tend to be biased. We are not stating that this is the end of oil, but its glory days are probably behind it. One thing is obvious; the peak oil theory experts are and were always full of rubbish. In fact, we penned several articles over the years covering this issue the latest of which was titled “peak oil debunked”. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 27, 2017
Will Crude Oil Extend Gains? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Tuesday, crude oil extended gains and hit a fresh July high, but will we see further rally in the coming days?
Crude Oil’s Technical Picture
Let’s take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
Gold and Oil - 3 charts, 3 forecasts, in 7 fast minutes / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
See just how much you can learn from three simple charts.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
The Fed May Influence the Bounce in USD / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
USD futures remain flat at this time. However, it may have reached its Head & Shoulders target and Master Cycle low today. The Fed action may have some influence on the bounce, since it is ready to do so.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
Congress Is Hopeless Against Trump’s Plans To Impose Trade Sanctions / Politics / US Politics
By: John_Mauldin
Trade is the global economy’s bloodstream. The more freely it flows, the better for all.
As David Ricardo explained 200 years ago, different peoples have unique characteristics that enable them to produce certain goods at lower opportunity costs than others can. Free trade gives consumers access to the best goods and services at the lowest prices.
However, what we now call “free trade” is not what Ricardo had in mind. We have instead managed trade designed to benefit certain favored parties and to disadvantage others.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: GoldCore
– Easy credit offered by UK banks is endangering “everyone else in the economy”
– UK banks are “dicing with the spiral of complacency” again
– Bank of England official believes household debt is good in moderation
– Household debt now equals 135% of household income
– Now costs half of average income to raise a child
– Real incomes not keeping up with real inflation
– 41% of those in debt are in full-time work
– £1.537 trillion owed by the end of May 2017
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Reconciling the US Dollar Outlook with the Super Bullish Gold and Silver COTs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts the U.S. dollar and expects it to trade sideways for a while before continuing its downward trend.
Because the dollar has such an important bearing on everything, especially the Precious Metals, it is timely for us to take a close look at it here after its recent steep drop, for as some of you may have seen, a number of indicators pertaining to the dollar suggest that, possibly after some further downside it is likely to bounce, or at least take a rest in a sideways range for a while, before the decline perhaps resumes in earnest.
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Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Mr. Trump: You May Not Want To Take Credit For The Stock Market Just Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Avi_Gilburt
Stock market is still bullish
If you have followed my analysis through the years, you would know that I have correctly been steadfastly bullish the stock market for quite some time. In fact, I was one of the very few who expected the market to rocket higher even after Donald Trump won the election last year.
And, now, we are approaching the S&P 500 target in the 2500SPX region we expected to strike in 2017. However, just because the market has rallied strongly after the election as we expected, it does not mean we expect it to continue into the next election season. And, let me explain why that is so important.
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Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Money Is Money, Wherever It Comes From / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Raul_I_Meijer
One of the crucial things to understand about today’s world is that money is fungible. Whether it’s created in Japan, Europe, China or the US, once it’s tossed by a central bank into one or another part of the global economy, it eventually finds its way to a common pool of liquidity.
So the modest US tightening of the past year (100 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate, slight decrease in Fed balance sheet) has to be seen in a global context. And that context is still insanely easy. Here, for instance, is China’s “social financing” – their term for total new debt:
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Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Bitcoin Price Close to All-time High / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
The recent surge in Bitcoin is associated with the technical details of the currency and an agreement which avoids a fork for the time being. In an article on Business Insider, we read:
Bitcoin has recovered somewhat from the drop in value seen last Sunday, with the price of the cryptocurrency reaching $2,701 at the time of this writing.
The stabilization seems to be the result of Bitcoin miners reaching an agreement on the enactment of the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal.
This agreement means the avoidance of a user-activated softfork (UASF), the possibility of which caused significant unease among investors.
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Last Week’s Rally in Gold Stocks Erased / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and the USD Index didn’t do much in yesterday’s trading, but that was not the case with mining stocks. The divergence between gold stocks and gold was particularly visible and the implications are once again particularly important.
Let’s take a look at the charts, starting with the HUI Index(gold stock chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Dollar, Bitcoin, Markets - Is There A New Flight To Safety? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The dollar has been taken beating on ‘false promises’ of any major fiscal reform from the Trump administration.