Friday, August 04, 2017

US Military May Soon Deploy Millions Of Drones—Which Presents A Big Investment Opportunity / Politics / US Military

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : If you were to ask me what the most inefficient US market sector is, I would probably say defense.

Now, that’s something no one likes to hear.

How come the one sector the US government spends the most money on—the FY 2018 defense budget is $824.7 billion, more than that of the next nine countries combined—is the most inefficient?

Friday, August 04, 2017

Every Investor Is One Misstep Away From Losing Everything—And It Has Nothing To Do With Crashes / Portfolio / Financial Markets 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY OLIVIER GARRET : The US has become a very unfriendly place for successful people.

Not just for the uber wealthy, but entrepreneurs, investors, and the family next door. Anyone with even a modest net worth is a potential target.

Our country has just 5% of the world’s population yet is home to 80% of its lawyers. The US spends 2.2% of its GDP on legal costs. That is an eight-fold jump per capita (inflation adjusted) since the 1950s.

Thursday, August 03, 2017

Ethereum vs. Tangibleum: Why Cryptocurrencies Can Never Replace Physical Gold / Currencies / BlockChain

By: HAA

Shannara Johnson : On June 11, 2017, Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $3,025.47… followed by a 27.7% plunge only four days later.

By July 12, it had lost a total of $12 billion off its value within a month.

Ethereum, another popular cryptocurrency, increased its market share from a mere 5% at the beginning of the year to a breathtaking 30% in June, only to plummet 65% from its record-high by mid-July.

Thursday, August 03, 2017

Copper Price Cycles Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

My gut tells me that Copper will likely test the $3 level before its 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle tops out. The daily RSI is in the nosebleed section, however, as we are approaching the 3 month mark in its current uptrend.

Nearer term, my Trading Cycle count is a bit cloudy but my preferred count is day 31. We have formed a swing low once again but we did so last week only to move slightly higher.

Thursday, August 03, 2017

How Much Money Do First-Time Home Buyers Need for a Deposit in the UK? / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

The dream of buying a home one day is something that many people share. For some, realising this dream can be a long journey filled with questions, apprehension, and confusion. Of course, one of the biggest questions people have is how much of a deposit they need to save in order to buy a house in the UK? This one simple question helps to determine if it’s possible to even purchase a home, and when it may actually happen.

Thursday, August 03, 2017

Uncertainty At Record Highs, Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, August 03, 2017

EURUSD Broke Above Neckline Resistance / Currencies / Euro

By: Franco_Shao

EURUSD broke above a major trend line from the August 2015 high of 1.1713 to the May 2016 high of 1.1616 at 1.1445 on the weekly chart, and extended its bullish movement to as high as 1.1908, indicating that a double bottom pattern had been formed.

Thursday, August 03, 2017

Asda Sales and Profits CRASH - UK Retailer Sector Crisis 2017 Continues to Worsen / Companies / Retail Sector

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Up until results released this weeks, Asda had been battling Sainsbury to take the second place spot in terms of being Britain's 2nd largest retailer with sales for both virtually neck and neck on £24 billion. Asda as part of the giant US Wal-Mart group has been seen as being the more robust of Britain's largest retailers, many of whom are facing a perfect storm of BrExit inflation producer price hikes, contracting customer disposable earnings and loss of customers to the discounters such as Aldi and Lidl. Which has thrown all of the retailers into a full blown crisis as my analysis from earlier this year has been warning of that ultimately this means we may witness a Woolworth's moment that see's one of Britain's largest retailers goes bust, with my focus being on Britain's biggest retailer TESCO that has been in a literal death spiral now for several years.

Thursday, August 03, 2017

Here’s Why The US Sanctions Against Russia Threaten Germany’s Interests / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

By Antonia Colibasanu : The US House of Representatives has passed a bill to renew and expand sanctions against Russia that were imposed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The bill, however, could also have a negative impact on some European energy projects that are linked to Russian companies.

Since the initial bill was first approved by the Senate on June 15, the European Union has been lobbying US lawmakers to revise the proposed legislation and reduce its effects on third-party countries.

Thursday, August 03, 2017

The Fed’s Manipulations Have Rendered The Yield Curve Useless As a Recession Indicator / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

The yield curve has always had an excellent forecasting record.

The Fed’s own wacky policies may have skewed this early-warning system’s reliability, but an interpretive adjustment can restore its usefulness.

This indicator has allowed me to predict the last two recessions.

Thursday, August 03, 2017

Raising the US Debt Ceiling Means Jacking Up Future Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

By Stefan Gleason : The dramatic failure of the U.S. Senate’s last-ditch Obamacare repeal effort leaves Republicans so far without a major legislative win since Donald Trump took office. No healthcare reform. No tax reform. No monetary reform. No budgetary reform.

The more things change in Washington... the more they stay the same.

Despite an unconventional outsider in the White House, it’s business as usual for entrenched incumbents of both parties. The next major order of business for the bipartisan establishment is to raise the debt ceiling above $20 trillion.

Thursday, August 03, 2017

US Dollar Testing Long Term Support / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Submissions

Mike Golembesky : The U.S. Dollar has continued to fall hitting a low of 92.72 on Monday, July 31st. The U.S. Dollar also broke through shorter term support levels and is now closing in on long term support that could very well define the longer term trend over the next several years.

Thursday, August 03, 2017

America's Finances in a Better World / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: DeviantInvestor

In a better world we might expect:

• Individuals, corporations, and governments spend no more than their income.
• “Honest” money is used by all, has intrinsic value, retains its purchasing power and is not counterfeited by individuals or bankers.
• Governments and bankers support and encourage “honest” money.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

What Is Widespread Excessive Stock Market Optimism Indicating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I implement these “seasonality” charts as they have been a great framework into all of my trading/investing technical analysis.  Seasonality charts are constructed from the past thirty years of historical data.

I implement them as “contrarian indicators”.  The “extreme bullishness” is perceived as bearish and the “extreme bearishness” is perceived as bullish!

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Greenspan Warns Moving Into “Stagflation Not Seen Since the 1970s” / Economics / Inflation

By: GoldCore

– Former Fed Chairman warns of bond bubble, stagflation
– “Moving into a … stagflation not seen since the 1970s”
– This will not be “good for asset prices”
– 10 Yr Gov bond yields fell from 15.8% in 1981 to 2.3%
– Interest rates will not stay low, will rise ‘reasonably fast’
– “Normal” interest rates in 4%-5% range
– Inflation will not stay at historically low levels
– Gold “protects savings” and is “store of value”
– Gold is the “ultimate insurance policy” says Greenspan

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

This Oil Price Rally Has Reached Its Limit / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Last week, crude oil rallied the most so far this year, gaining more than 8 percent, or $4 per barrel. Oil traders are much more optimistic than they were just a month ago, and the market is on the upswing. However, the rally could run out of steam in the not-so-distant future, a familiar result for those paying attention to the oil market in the last few years.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

DOW Jones and EURUSD Changing Fortunes Ahead.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave
Long term wave count: lower in wave (3) red
Important risk events: EUR: Spanish Unemployment Change. USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Crude Oil Inventories.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

USDCAD Broke Below 1.2460 Support / Currencies / Canadian $

By: Franco_Shao

USDCAD recently broke below an important support level at the May 2016 low of 1.2460 and reached as low as 1.2413, confirming that the long term downtrend from the January 2016 high of 1.4689 had resumed.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Bitcoin Hits New Combined All-Time High Above $3,000 After Bitcoin Fork / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

Many people considered today to be the most important day for bitcoin since its creation in 2009.

It was the first serious fork of the bitcoin chain into two different coins. Many people, including ourselves, were preparing for major volatility. And some people, like Mike Adams, said it was the death of bitcoin.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Precious Metals Break Out Now Or In A Few Weeks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

This past week, the GDX has finally taken out its resistance at 22.65, and provided us with some semblance of an impulsive structure off the recent lows. However, the micro structure it is not the cleanest of structures, similar to silver.

Yet, as long as the metals do not break below their July lows, we are again set up to see a massive break out. While I still cannot tell you if the metals will take advantage of that set up, as they failed to do so the last time we had a break out set up, if they do not take advantage of this set up within the next few weeks, we could see a major failure to launch take hold, and drop us lower than the bulls would care for. So, it seems it’s time for the metals to step up.