Friday, September 01, 2017

NZDUSD Broke Below 0.7200 Support / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Franco_Shao

NZDUSD recently broke below a major support level at 0.7200, indicating that the uptrend from 0.6817 had completed at 0.7557 already. The pair is now in downtrend, further decline would likely be seen after correction.

Friday, September 01, 2017

The Coming Crypto-Crisis? / Currencies / BlockChain

By: Brady_Willett

Since 2008 there has been a widespread increase in debt around the globe, central bankers have printed and experimented with direct asset purchases like never before, and there have been many dangerous bubble-like oddities in the marketplace worthy of attention (i.e. student debt, subprime auto, junk bonds, housing, etc.).  Nevertheless, despite the record increase in paper wealth since 1Q09 there has been no unifying ‘mania’ for the grumpily inclined to ceaselessly growl about.  That is, perhaps, until now:

“Bitcoin Cash’s price nearly doubled within its first 24 hours, surging from roughly $394 to $757…”  Forbes

Friday, September 01, 2017

13 Reasons Why to Own Gold After Breaking Above $1300 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Submissions

Michal Matovcik writes: Gold is showing decent strength going into the end of summer breaking above strong psychological and technical level of $1300 per ounce which can finally confirm the beginning of long-term bull market. At the same time, gold reached new highs for 2017.

There is no lack of fundamentals supporting the move upwards. But as gold traders got used to during recent years, the "fat fingers" smashing gold to the downside during ridiculous trading hours in low liquidity markets has no limits. So I always remember the old saying used by many long time traders, "Markets have the ability to stay irrational longer than our accounts solvent". 

Friday, September 01, 2017

Stock Market SPX : Morphology 101 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is a daily chart for the SPX which shows you a good example of a morphing rising wedge. As you can see there was a false breakout above the top rail and then an equal false breakout below the bottom rail, symmetry false breakouts, red circles.

When that occurs we need to adjust the top and bottom trendliness to the new high and low to get the new pattern. The original rising wedge is now shown by the blue dashed trendlines with the new rising wedge the solid blue trendlines.

Friday, September 01, 2017

Copper Strong, Good News for Chile, Bad News for the US / Commodities / Copper

By: Metals_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund analyzes why the rising copper price is good news for Chile.

Copper is looking strong, apparently due in part to China stockpiling it, and this of course augurs well for the Precious Metals, especially silver, as copper "shows the way," which is why it is known as Dr. Copper. As we can see on its 5-year chart, it has already broken out of a Head-and-Shoulders bottom to enter a bullmarket. Right now it is overbought and has resistance to work its way through, so periods of consolidation are to be expected.

Friday, September 01, 2017

Three Oil & Gas Names for Volatile Times in the Energy Sector / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: The_Energy_Report

With oil and gas prices not easy to predict, Samuel Pelaez, chief investment officer and portfolio manager of Galileo Funds, explains the algorithms that track "quantamentals," and discusses several companies that he expects to outperform.

The Energy Report: Sam, you employ what you call "quantamental" models. Would you explain what they are?

Friday, September 01, 2017

Trump Reset: US War With China, North Korea Nuclear Flashpoint - Video / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my latest video in my Trump Reset War with China series that details the key mega-trend geopolitical consequences of the Trump Presidency, of why the United States under Trump would be trending towards an inevitable war with China, economic, cyber and even outright military conflict, something that many were skeptical of when I wrote my 3 pieces of in-depth analysis before Trump took office, but given what has subsequently transpired should be recognised as now being far more probable.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Stocks do this in October in Years Ending in 7 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It has been proven repeatedly by various market experts that stock market cycles exist. Whether you believe in them or not that is up to you, but as a technical trader myself I see price action repeat on virtually all time frames from the intraday charts, to daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, and beyond.

In fact, cycles tend to move in series of 3’s, 7’s and 10’s, and multiples of these as well. So, 3 bars, 7 bars, 10 bars no matter the time frame, though I find the 10min, daily, weekly, and monthly charts work best.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

The Demise Of Libor Is Part Of A Massive Global Trend That Many Overlook / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: John_Mauldin

BY XANDER SNYDER : For decades, the public put its trust in technocrats.

The thinking was that the economy and politics had become too complex for ordinary citizens to understand. And that the best way to handle it was to allow the experts to take over.

They were perceived to be skillful and knowledgeable enough to manage economically and politically important institutions (including banks).

The events of 2008–2009 shattered that belief.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Boomers are Turning 71 - Setting off a Perfect Storm for Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : Few investors understand the magnitude of the looming demographic crisis and its ramifications.

The first Baby Boomers turned 70 last year. At the same time, the US fertility rate is at its lowest point since records began in 1909.

This disastrous combination means by 2030, those aged 65 and older will make up over 20% of the population.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

3 Reasons The Stock Market Is Nowhere Near A Crisis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Bearish investors see many reasons to be cautious now and little grounds for optimism. Others are stalwartly bullish. Naturally, I have friends on both sides of this debate, people with deep knowledge and experience.

Problem is, they can’t all be right. The stock market will move up or down (or possibly sideways), and some of us will be wrong.

Now, let’s see what the bulls have to say.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

4 Reasons Why “Gold Has Entered A New Bull Market” – Schroders / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– 4 reasons why “gold has entered a new bull market” – Schroders
– Market complacency is key to gold bull market say Schroders
– Investors are currently pricing in the most benign risk environment in history as seen in the VIX
– History shows gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness (see chart)
– You should buy insurance when insurers don’t believe that the “risk event” will happen
– Very high Chinese gold demand, negative global interest rates and a weak dollar should push gold higher

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Stock Market New Record Highs Ahead Or Just Bounce? S&P 500 Above 2,450 Mark / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly:
Intraday trade: The S&P 500 index may slightly extend its short-term advance today. However, we can see some technical overbought conditions that may lead to a downward correction. Therefore, we prefer to be out of the market again, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades.

Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is bearish, as we expect downward correction. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish:

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Has the EURO Topped? / Currencies / Euro

By: SurfCity

At least in the short term anyway? Remember, that based on my USD update from yesterday, I am still looking for a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in the USD. The Dollar has rallied hard off yesterdays low and as you would expect, the EURO is showing signs of topping here.

I have taken a trade in shorting the EURO with the EUO ETF but have not yet made this a portfolio trade as it is risky here but here are some charts on both the EURO ($XEU) and EUO.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Are You Ready to Profit From the US Dollar Collapse? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Graham_Summers

The US Dollar collapse has already triggered a major move in inflation plays.

To whit, Gold has broken its SEVEN-YEAR downtrend.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

The Coming US Dollar Collapse and How It Will Impact Portfolios / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Graham_Summers

Yesterday we talked about the US Dollar ($USD) dropping below critical support.

By quick way of review, here’s the key chart. As you can see, the $USD staged a large bull market run in 2014 as the Fed wound down its QE program. The greenback was then range bound for three years until this month when it broke down in a big way.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

The Swamp Strikes Back / Politics / US Politics

By: John_Browne

On August 21st many Americans witnessed the moon cast a historic but short-lived shadow across the United States. One day later, President Trump reversed his previously stated position on the 16 year old Afghan War, thereby eclipsing the possibility that the United States would finally come to its senses and rethink a failed strategy that is likely to fail for years, perhaps decades, to come. The abrupt change, in what had been a central plank in candidate Trump’s appeal to voters thirsting for change in American foreign policy, came hard after the departure of Steve Bannon from the White House. As a self-avowed nationalist, Bannon had represented a true break in interventionist Republican thinking that had entangled the United States in intractable conflicts around the globe. To put an exclamation point, Sebastian Gorka, the last remaining proponent of the Bannon perspective, was forced out of the White House. The counter-revolution appears to be complete.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Stock Market Overhead Resistance Being Tested / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX rallied above the trendline to a 60.8% retracement of Wave [i], reinforcing my original Wave structure. The Cycles Model suggests a reversal may be imminent. It may occur at or near Trump’s speech this afternoon. This may be the last opportunity to add short positions.

We may see an extension to 2453.00 (61.8% value) or slightly higher.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

US GDP Growth Upwards Revision to 3.04%, BEA 2nd Quarter 2017 / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.04% annual rate, up +0.48% from their previous estimate and up +1.80% from the prior quarter.

Consumer spending was revised upward to a +2.27% annualized growth rate (up +0.34% from the previous estimate and up +0.95% from the prior quarter). The inventory contribution continued to be essentially neutral (+0.02), while the previous growth in commercial fixed investment was revised upward (to +0.58%). Governmental spending was revised back into contraction (-0.05%), and the growth rates for both exports (+0.45%) and imports (-0.23%) moderated.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

15 Events That Could Trigger the Next Recession—And None Of Them Are Likely Now / Economics / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

In writing my latest Thoughts from the Frontline, I reached out to my contacts looking for an uber-bull—someone utterly convinced that the market is on solid ground, with good evidence for their view.

Fortunately, a good friend who must remain nameless shared with me an August 4 slide deck from Krishna Memani, Chief Investment Officer of Oppenheimer Funds.