Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
The Two Gaping Holes in the Inflationist Argument / Economics / Inflation
By: Andrew_Butter
The current debate revolves around the simplified monetarist equation (which everyone accepts), that says (M•VT = P•TT) where (M) is the amount of (liquid) money in the system, (VT) is the transactions velocity of this money which is the average frequency across all transactions with which a unit of money is spent (i.e. how fast it moves from one pocket to another), (PT) is the price of goods and services being traded and (T) is an index of the real value of aggregate transactions (no it's not the number of transactions, that's included in (V) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money)). [VT] and [T] are hard to measure and the equation can also be expressed as (M•V = P•Q) where (Q) is output, which approximates to real GDP, typically (M) is measured and (V) is calculated from (V=M/nominal GDP).
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Why It’s Stagflation, Not Hyperinflation... For Now / Economics / Stagflation
By: Michael_Pento
In the longer term, the risk of the U.S. suffering through a bout with hyperinflation is very real. However, in the short term what we most likely face is a protracted period of stagflation first because of our record debt and the Fed’s decision to pay interest on excess bank reserves.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
The Housing & Economic Bubble in Real Life / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: LewRockwell
Myron Weber writes: As my wife and I were on our way to the home improvement store this past weekend, I saw the economic bubble that brought about the current bust illustrated in stark reality. Near our home in Orange County, California, driving on a beautifully-paved, 6-lane street with a landscaped median and surrounded by relatively new housing developments, the conversation went something like this:
Monday, April 27, 2009
Money Supply Multipliers, Velocity, and Excess Reserves / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are reading the Quarterly Review and Outlook by Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt. It's an excellent report so let's take a look at some commentary and charts.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Darling's Wishful Thinking Budget is Bad News for Gilts / Economics / UK Economy
By: MoneyWeek
Rats are usually the first to abandon a sinking ship. But in Britain, it seems the rats are only too happy to stick around. According to Bloomberg, rats are "thriving, with shuttered shops and half-built housing sites to live in, rotting piles of uncollected garbage for dinner, and fewer exterminators sent out to kill them." The rat population has grown by 13% this year, to more than 50m, reckons Peter Crowden, head of the National Pest Technicians Association.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Economic Downturn Hits UK Public Finances / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
Overview
UK Budget 2009 announcements were as grim as
expected. Official borrowing will reach over 12%
of the economy in the current financial year, or £175bn. It will fall only slightly in 2010/11 to £173bn, and to 11.9% of the economy if the official
forecast of 1.25% growth for 2010 proves correct.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Financial & Economic Crisis: Are We at the End of the Beginning, or the Beginning of the End? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Kevin_Geary
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Winston Churchill —at the Lord Mayor's Luncheon, Mansion House following the victory at El Alamein in North Africa, London, 10 November 1942.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Improving Economic Indicators as Housing Market Shows Signs of Stabilising / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Leading Index - continues to send message of weak economic conditions
“The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) dropped -0.3% in March 2009, after a revised 0.2% decline during February. The LEI posted the last increase in June 2008. On a year-to-year basis, the quarterly average of the LEI fell 3.8% after a 4.0% decline in the fourth quarter. The LEI appears to have established a bottom in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
European Union in Crisis as Financial & Economic Problems Multiply Threatening Euro Stability / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The IMF released its Global Financial Stability Report this week. And it’s projecting total losses from the global financial crisis to reach $4.1 TRILLION. That’s four times the amount projected in last year’s report.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Back to the Future Recession 2010-11, Professors Teaching Economic Garbage / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
MV=PQ
Financial Innovation: The Round Trip
2010-11: Back to the Future Recession
The Fed at the Crossroads
How Did We Get It So Wrong?
The Trend Is Not Your Friend When It Ends
This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. If you have not read the first part, you can review it here. The first few paragraphs are a repeat from last week, to give us some context. Please note that this is somewhat edited from the original, and I have added a few ideas. You can also go there to sign up to get this letter sent to you free each week.
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Friday, April 24, 2009
UK Economic Crash, GDP Contracts by 1.9% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK GDP contracted by a shockingly high 1.9% for the first quarter of 2009, which was set against consensus forecasts for a 1.5% contraction. Barely 2 days ago the Chancellor Alistair Darling forecast GDP contraction of 3.5% for 2009, 1.25% growth for 2010 and 3.5% growth for 2011. At the time I stated that Alistair Darling forecasts implied a miraculous turnaround and was set against my own forecast as of February 09 for 2009 GDP contraction of 4.75%, with peak to trough contraction of -6.3%.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Global Economic Depression Unemployment- Learning from Japan / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Stathis
I ran across an interesting story about how Japan is using a somewhat innovative approach to deal with its own symptoms of what will eventually be recorded in history books as the global depression. http://www.nytimes.com..
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Friday, April 24, 2009
UK GDP Forecast to Contract by 1.5% for 1st Quarter 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GDP data for the first quarter of 2009 to be released this morning is expected by the majority of economists to contract by 1.5% despite panic measures of zero interest rates and quantitative easing which however have yet to show through in economic data. The Market Oracle forecast as of Feb 2009 is for GDP contraction of 1.1% for the first quarter of 2009.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
UK Unemployment Targets 3 Million This Year / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Unemployment shot up by 71,000 for January 09 data to 12 year high of 2.1 million to officially stand at 6.7% of the workforce, 2.1 million is exactly on target as per my forecast of October 2008. However the more up to date unemployment claimant count data continued to soar, rising by 64,000 in March to 1.52 million, which is up more than 50% on the 970,000 figure of 6 months ago and acts as a leading leading indicator which signals much higher forward unemployment data as illustrated by the below graph
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Global Financial Crisis: Bad Economics, Economists Do not Have a Clue / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Global_Research
Prof. John Kozy writes: Classical/neoclassical economics has consistently protected the wealth of the privileged; it has preserved the status quo. This is capitalism's intent, and the evidence for it is overwhelming. It has impeded the improvement of the human condition for two hundred years, and unless it is scrapped, it will continue to do so. No mere change in government can stop it.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Hyperinflation Is Coming / Economics / HyperInflation
By: LewRockwell
Bob Murphy writes: People often accuse me of making “irresponsible” forecasts of massive price inflation. Even though they know that history is replete with examples of central banks ruining their currencies, these critics are sure that “it can’t happen here.” So in the present article I’d like to make the brief case for why we should all be very alarmed about the prospects for the U.S. dollar.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Gold Hits Short Term High as Global Recession Sparks Risk Aversion / Economics / Gold & Silver 2009
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL gold held above a one-week high early Thursday in London, recording its best Gold Fix in seven sessions at $894 an ounce as European stock markets flipped in and out of the red.
"It is risk aversion that is fuelling gold's rally," said one commodity analyst to India's Economic Times today.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Darling's Recession Debt Crisis Budget, Britain's £1.2 Trillion Public Sector Black Hole / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Darlings irresponsible budget resulted in a a net give away of £5 billion today, against borrowing of £175 billion for 2009 as against the Chancellors own forecast of barely 6 months ago of borrowing of £38 billion. Instead of positioning the countries finances to cope with the huge public sector budget deficit the government has instead focused itself on the next general election which is still a year away.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Debt Implosion Recession to Continue Into 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
The Fed's $12.8 trillion of monetary stimulus has triggered a six week-long surge in the stock market. Think of it as Bernanke's Bear Market Rally, a torrent of capital gushing from every rusty pipe in the financial system. The Fed's so-called "lending facilities" have gone far beyond their original purpose which was to backstop a broken system. Now they're leaking liquidity into the equities markets and sending stocks soaring while the "real" economy sinks to the bottom of the fish tank. That's how the Fed does business these days; plenty of tasty crepes for the Wall Street kingpins and table-scraps for the lumpen masses.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Does Taxing Pollution Lead to Higher Prices and Lower Aggregate Economic Output? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Congress is about to consider legislation that could result in a tax on the burning of fossil fuels. Some argue that such a tax would result in increased prices of a wide variety of goods and services and reduced aggregate output. I do not want to get into the argument as to whether the burning of fossil fuels is contributing to global warming or whether global warming is globally harmful. Rather, I want to discuss the issue of taxing pollution in general. In other words, I want this to be a discussion about economic theory, not political-economic theory.
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