Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Economic Recovery Underway But Double-Dip Recession Risk Remains / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Francois_Soto
Consumers Are Not Saving Yet - Over the last months, we have seen articles discussing the dramatic surge of Personal Saving Rate as % of Disposable Income and how America shifted from consumer-driven to saving-driven. Most observers forgot to mention Personal Saving Rate Ex Transfer Payments As % of Disposable Income actually kept declining since May 2008 and this can be seen on the chart below. This means such frugal lifestyle is not happening yet although it might occur in a not so distant future once consumers decrease their Financial Obligations Ratio, a measure of debt.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Spain, The Financial Black Hole In Europe's Balance Sheet / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
Today's offering for this week's Outside the Box starts off with a quote from Titus Maccius Plautus: "I am a rich man as long as I don't pay my creditors." Even 2200 years ago, it seems that problems of credit were an issue.
I talked last Friday about the US being faced with a number of bad choices. But it is not just the US. Today we look at a piece from my friends at Variant Perception based on London. They are a relatively new institutional research house. I have been reading their material for some time and have begun to look very much forward to it. They do some very good in-depth analysis. I asked then to shorten a piece they did on Spain and Spanish banks for this week's Outside the Box. Spain will soon be faced with a number of very uncomfortable choices, but for now they appear in denial.
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Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Failure of U.S. Money Supply to Grow Points to Economic Stagnation and Monetization of Debt / Economics / Money Supply
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Investors should be taking some clues from the thinking of American voters. Their view, as documented by the respected Rasmusen polling organization, is rejection of the growth killing policies of the Obama Regime. Per Rasmusen, a mere 46% of voters approve of Obama Regime while 53% disapprove. The vote is in on the economic prospects for the U.S. due to policies of the failing and fading Obama Regime, and it is in the negative column.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Consumer Woes to Continue as Confidence Slumps and Incomes Stagnate / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: With unemployment hovering at 9.4% consumers continued to show reluctance in July as incomes stagnated. Furthermore, with the jobless rate expected to exceed 10% later this year, consumer confidence fell in August, keeping hopes of a sustained economic recovery at bay.
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Monday, August 31, 2009
The Case for Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Washingtons_Blog
As Absolute Return Partners wrote in its July newsletter:
The most important investment decision you will have to make this year and possibly for years to come is whether to structure your portfolio for deflation or inflation.
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Monday, August 31, 2009
Fed Liquidity to Keep the Financial System from Collapsing / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Whitney
Ben Bernanke never should have been reappointed as Fed chairman. Obama made a big mistake. The main thing to remember about Bernanke is that, in the two years since the financial crisis began, he's made no effort to force the large banks and financial institutions to write-down their losses. Nor has he pushed for the regulations that are needed to restore confidence in the system. The credit system is still clogged because the banks are buried under $1.5 trillion in toxic assets and non performing loans which are defaulting at the fastest pace on record. At the same time, Bernanke has failed to push for reform of derivatives trading, off-balance sheet operations, securitization or capital requirements for financial institutions.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Mish on the Edge with Max Discussing Deflation and the State of the U.S. Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
On August 23 I was On the Edge with Max Keiser in a pair of videos discussing deflation and the state of the US economy.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Fed is Accelerating the Monetization of Debt, High Inflation is on Its Way / Economics / Inflation
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes: The public option for Obama insurance coverage has been described as just a sliver of the overall proposal. Universal coverage directly by government was not an essential element says Health & Human Services. Of course it was. The program is in retreat and the only way the Democrats can get passage of any kind is to re-craft a toothless passage and ram it through in a party line vote.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
No Wage Growth; No Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Whitney
A recent poll shows that most economists now believe that the recession, which began in December 2007, will end in the third quarter of 2009. There's been an uptick in manufacturing and consumer confidence, and the decline in housing prices appears to be flattening out. Unfortunately, the return to positive GDP will likely be short-lived. The current surge in production is mainly the result of President Obama's fiscal stimulus and the rebuilding of inventories that were slashed after Lehman Bros defaulted in September, 2008. These factors should boost GDP for two or perhaps three quarters before the economy lapses back into recession.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
The U.S. Economic Recovery is a Tale of Two Economies / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Shedlock
How well corporations have fared in the recovery depends largely on two factors.
1) How much cash on hand they had and how conservative they were heading into the recession
2) How much Uncle Sam (taxpayers) bailed them out
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Uncomfortable Choices in a Deflationary High Deficits Economic Environment / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
An Uncomfortable Choice
What Were We Thinking?
Frugality is the New Normal
And Then We Face the Real Problem
The Teenagers Are in Control
Choose Wisely
We have arrived at this particular economic moment in time by the choices we have made, which now leave us with choices in our future that will be neither easy, convenient, nor comfortable. Sometimes there are just no good choices, only less-bad ones. In this week's letter we look at what some of those choices might be, and ponder their possible consequences. Are we headed for a double-dip recession? Read on.
Friday, August 28, 2009
The China Growth Myth Debunked, What Happens When the Credit Bubble Pops? / Economics / China Economy
By: Graham_Summers
Virtually 95% of all the evidence of economic recovery has stemmed from China in one way or another. Whether it’s the rise in price of commodities (China stockpiling), the global economy (the “China” growth miracle will lead us into a recovery), or even retail numbers (China producers lowering prices in an effort to move inventory), China is linked in one way or another to the “green shoots” nonsense.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Beware the Mass Media, A Pack of Lying Morons / Economics / Mainstream Media
By: LewRockwell
Jack D. Douglas writes: The Mass Media reports on almost all economic issues more complex than buying a hamburger are very misleading at all times and are catastrophically misleading in this Great Crisis in which almost everything is distorted in Rube Goldberg ways by the Fed, FDIC, and scores of other agencies and giveaway, subsidy programs.
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Friday, August 28, 2009
What a Changing U.S. Savings Ratio and Chinese Falling Export Rate Tell Us / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Hans_Wagner
What can we learn from the insight that the U.S. consumer is saving more and Chinese exports are falling? The chart below from Bloomberg has an interesting story to tell. The yellow line represents the falling growth rate of Chinese exports vs. last year. The white line shows the rising savings rate of the U.S. consumer.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Transition From Financial Crisis to Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Christopher_Laird
Now that we are just about 2 years into the world financial/credit crisis, it’s time to ask what is next in one or two years. One is to ask will stagflation emerge in 2010 and after, which is highly gold bullish long term.
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Thursday, August 27, 2009
Jaguar Inflation, An Explanation of the Deflationary Consequences of Government Intervention / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter's FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook , part of Prechter's NEW Deflation Survival Guide.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
The Process of Creative Distruction of Corporations / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt have figured out what few others have, that excessive debt and falling asset prices have conspired to render the best efforts of the Fed impotent.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Current Economic Crisis Still On Track to be Bigger than the Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: EWI
Dear reader,
Our friends over at Elliott Wave International (EWI) are offering Bob Prechter’s recent 10-page market letter, free. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Learn more.
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Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Leading Economic Indicators Predict the Recession is Over / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_and_Markets
Claus Vogt writes: Last Thursday the Conference Board released the July reading of its Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). Year-over-year it was up by 0.2 percent. This is the first reading in the plus column since 2007.
So … what does this clear improvement tell us? How important is it? Does it give us an all clear signal that a strong recovery is on its way?
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Wednesday, August 26, 2009
The Free Market Caused the Great Depression? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: LewRockwell
Floy Lilley writes: Did you hear the one about bobbing heads on Sunday agreeing that the cause of the Great Depression was the absence of government guidance? "The Great Depression would never have happened if there had been any economic regulations," agreed the policy wonks.