Sunday, August 29, 2021
Play the Odds: Avoid Gambling in Rigged Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Is America becoming a nation of gamblers?
The lure of potential cash windfalls is driving rampant speculation in financial markets and record traffic to casinos.
The commercial gaming industry generated a record $13.6 billion in revenues during the second quarter, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Casinos in Las Vegas, Massachusetts, Louisiana, and elsewhere now expect 2021 to be their best year ever.
On the flip side, since all games on a casino floor are rigged in favor of the house, it’s a good bet that gamblers are losing record amounts of money.
Sunday, August 29, 2021
Jackson Hole Ahead! What Should We Expect? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold prices fluctuate around $1,800, waiting for signals from the Fed at Jackson Hole. Which way will we go after the conference?Finally! The price of gold returned above $1,800 this week, as the chart below shows. It’s a nice change after the slide in early August. Although gold has rebounded somewhat, bulls shouldn’t open the champagne yet. A small beer would be enough for now, as the yellow metal already retreated from $1,800 on Wednesday (the fact that gold was unable to stay above this level is rather disappointing).
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Sunday, August 29, 2021
CENTRALIZATION, BLOCKCHAIN and DECENTRALIZATION / Politics / BlockChain
By: Raymond_Matison
Brief history of centralization
One important but mostly uncomplimentary history of man is recorded through his activities in war. Thousands of years ago large marauding bands of tribesmen descended on small communities or villages pillaging or killing its inhabitants. As centuries of time passed, small communities coalesced to become larger villages, some of which eventually expanded and grew to become city states or petty kingdoms.
In 480 B.C. Xerxes invaded Greek city states, but after taking Athens had to retreat. As William McNeil, author of his magnificent book “The Rise of the West” states: “free men organized into city-states need fear no military danger from without”. This early centralization of men and weapons protected cities from conquest at that time. The concept of certain centralization and its benefits became acknowledged and gained momentum over future centuries. In the seventeenth century, after the 30 year war, new legal principles for states and sovereignty were established in 1648. Under the new Westphalian system, states would exist with agreed-upon borders as each state’s sovereignty was recognized by others. This became another historical benchmark for increasing centralization.
Over the next several centuries, the so called industrial revolution with its centralization of production and factories provided heretofore unforeseen job and income opportunities for the general populace, further rapidly accelerating growth of cities and population movement from rural to urban areas. Increased production and worker incomes spurred sales providing useful products to the masses, and profits creating a dramatic centralization of wealth and power for these owners of productive facilities.
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Saturday, August 28, 2021
AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024 / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This analysis is focused on my continuing journey to gradually off load my stock analysis processing power onto neural nets where this net attempts to forecast the value of AI stocks 3 years out based on my EC indicator resulting in a upwards pressure under the stock price indicator.
This article is an excerpt form my recent in-depth analysis : AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024, Time to Buy Chinese Tech Stocks?
Contents:
- AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF).
- How I Use ASVF6 - Percent Upwards Pressure (PUP)
- AI Stocks Buying Levels Plus ASVF & PUP
- AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets
- Pattern Recognition
- Trend Analysis Preprocessing
- Crossing the Rubicon With These Three High Risk Tech Stocks
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 1
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 2
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 3
- CME Black Swan
Saturday, August 28, 2021
Stock Market IWM Sets Up Dual Pennant/Flag Formation – Suggesting Very Volatile Apex Even / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we’ve seen an extended sideways price trend in the Russell 2000 sector that started in February/March of 2021. The peak price level on the IWM, the Ishares Russell 2000 ETF, reached $234.29 and has consolidated in a sideways price range for more than five months now. In mid-July, IWM broke lower and established a fresh new price low of $209.05 – setting up a second Pennant/Flagging price formation (in YELLOW). We believe this extended sideways Pennant/Flagging price channel is setting up a major volatility event (breakout or breakdown) as the price continues to near the Apex.
Dual Pennant/Flag Setups Suggest Big Volatility On The Horizon For Traders
We’ve drawn the longer-term Pennant/Flagging channel in CYAN and the more recent Pennant/Flagging channel in YELLOW. What we find interesting is that price is certainly attempting to break free of this channel recently but has continued to be constrained by a lack of directional momentum.
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Friday, August 27, 2021
AI Neural Net Predicts Facebook, AMD, and Nvidia Stock Prices Three Years Ahead / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here my neural net stock price forecaster predicts where Amazon, Microsoft and Apple stock prices will be trading in 3 years time. For an expiation of the forecaster see AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF) as excerpted form my recent extensive analysis -
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Friday, August 27, 2021
How "Hot" Meme Stock Market Ideas Can Burn Investors / Companies / Investing 2021
By: EWI
The Meme Stock Index sees a 36% decline since January
On July 30, this headline appeared on a well-known investment website:
It's Definitely Possible to Make a Fortune Off Meme Stocks
And, it's definitely true that many investors, especially newbies, have tried.
As you probably know, "meme" stocks may be loosely defined as stocks that become a white-hot focus of interest due to social media hype. The price of these shares can skyrocket within a short period of time. However, as you might imagine, these highly speculative issues can just as quickly turn southward.
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Friday, August 27, 2021
Why Google Could KILL Bitcoin - Crypto Market Black Swans / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst we can all get carried away projecting into the future based on past trends, comfortable in the reliability of calculations. However, there are always black swans lurking out of sight that could result in that panic event that few see coming. And where Bitcoin and the crypto's are concerned is if the Governments decide to BAN trading and investing in crypto's.
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Friday, August 27, 2021
Scarborough Seaside Sun Sea, and Sand Sights and Sounds Birthday Beach Holiday 2021 / Personal_Finance / Holidays
By: N_Walayat
It's the Walayat Family tradition to head to the beach for Eliza's Birthday's given that her birthday is in prime holiday season, and so it was for her 7th Birthday where this year we headed for Scarborough after giving the beach birthday a miss last year due to the Pandemic and the preceding years birthday taking place on several Cornwall beaches. So here are some of the sights and sounds of Scarborough, sun, sea, sand and attractions. Just goes to show one does not need to go abroad to have a fun holiday.
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Friday, August 27, 2021
How to Drop Temps on a HOT WD My book Duo External Hard Drives Cooling to Prevent Data Loss / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
Western Digital External Drives Run HIOT! They are not really designed to be under constant load, so if you are using them under constant load then they will overheat, thermal throttle and risk the loss of data!
So what is the solution if one wants to keep a drive attached permanently? We'll COOLING, and so here's an example of how to Cool HOT WD drives where in this example I am seeking to quickly cool a HOT 28tb twin drive My Book DUO.
If you are looking for a My Book DUO then check out these Amazon pages to grab a potential bargain for instance I paid just £550 for these at the time of purchase (amazon affiliate links).
UK - https://amzn.to/3sK5ZLH
US - https://amzn.to/3cKaErq
Thursday, August 26, 2021
Gold Price GameStop Stock Connection? It's an Emotions Game / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
There are many factors affecting gold prices on a daily basis, but… how can GameStop stock be one of them?
Given today’s pre-market slide in gold, it seems that the triangle-vertex-based turning point worked once again. Declines are likely next.
In yesterday’s analysis, I explained why the situation remains very similar to what happened in 2013, and that remains up-to-date. On top of that, two interesting things happened yesterday: one quite obvious and one less obvious.
Thursday, August 26, 2021
6 Reasons Why You Should Consider Painting Your Home's Exterior / Housing-Market / Home Improvements
By: Submissions
Your home's exterior is the first thing visitors see when they come to your home. Home improvements such as exterior painting will give your home a remarkable appeal. Here are the reasons why you should consider painting your home's exterior.
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Thursday, August 26, 2021
Investing During Stock Market Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is a continuation of my recent extensive analysis in advance of Financial Crisis 2.0 as a handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, August 26, 2021
Stock Market Rally On – Price Range Continues To Narrow As Reflation Trade Flags Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After a week of moderate volatility, while Consumer Sentiment and other economic data surprised traders/investors, the US markets entered a strong rally phase early in trading on Monday, August 23, 2021. This suggests traders continue to buy the dips in expectation of a never-ending rally trend.
Bucking Consumer Sentiment Trends
While the US markets continue to trend higher, some of our custom indicators and modeling systems have recently warned of market weakness setting up in cross-market sectors. Additionally, last week, the foreign markets took a bit of a beating while general commodities moved decidedly lower. Overall, it is tough to argue with this upward price trend – even while other indicators suggest intermediate market strength may be weakening.
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Thursday, August 26, 2021
Tips for Using MT4 Trading Tools to Increase Efficiency / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: S_N_Chatterjee
The current uncertain environment demands traders to continue using efficient trading software and one of the suitable solutions available is MetaTrader 4. Packed with tools and features, it can help users make well-informed decisions, now that global stock markets are unnerved by fears over growth.
Because of that, this material plans to share 4 insightful tips that could help retail traders using MT4 leverage the full benefits granted by this platform. Regardless of prior background, these pieces of advice apply to anyone.
Wednesday, August 25, 2021
Why Expectations for Fed Tightening Are Misplaced / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
Stimulus addicted markets ran into headwinds last week. Fed watchers found some hints about interest-rate tightening in the just-released FOMC’s July meeting minutes. That was all it took to rattle Wall Street.
Stocks have since recovered some of the initial losses, but it looks like history is about to repeat.
The U.S. economy is largely a mirage based on stimulus. Without artificially low interest rates, bond purchases (aka debt monetization), repo market support, and other extraordinary measures the central planners put in place, stock prices would fall.
There was a stock market correction in the fall of 2018 after which the Fed reversed course on tightening. And when COVID struck in March of 2020, the Fed quickly surrendered – cutting the funds rate all the way back to zero.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2021
T-Rex Tower Water Slide Ride Fun at Gullivers Rother Valley - UK Theme Parks 2021 / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks
By: N_Walayat
It's Eliza's 7th Birthday soon and as a birthday treat we took her to the recently opened new Theme Park Gulliver's Rother Valley which is situated between Rotherham, Sheffield and Doncaster, so near three major urban areas. Gulliver's theme parks are mainly for under 10's so Eliza's teenage brothers and sisters were a bit bored but Eliza had a lot of fun. Here's what it was like to ride on the T-Rex Tower Water Slide ride. Lots of fun and one of the few rides that teenagers will enjoy.
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Tuesday, August 24, 2021
AI Neural Net Predicts Amazon, Microsoft and Apple Stock Prices Three Years Ahead / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here my neural net stock price forecaster predicts where Amazon, Microsoft and Apple stock prices will be trading in 3 years time. For an expiation of the forecaster see AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF) as excerpted form my recent extensive analysis -
AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024, Time to Buy Chinese Tech Stocks?
Contents:
- AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF).
- How I Use ASVF6 - Percent Upwards Pressure (PUP)
- AI Stocks Buying Levels Plus ASVF & PUP
- AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets
- Pattern Recognition
- Trend Analysis Preprocessing
- Crossing the Rubicon With These Three High Risk Tech Stocks
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 1
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 2
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 3
- CME Black Swan
Tuesday, August 24, 2021
Gold Happy 50th Anniversary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Michael_Pento
Friday the 13th of August 1971 was a very important date in U.S. history. It was the date that set the table for the beginning of the end of the USD's world reserve currency status. And, greatly expedited the road to perdition for the dollar's purchasing power.That means this past Friday was the 50-year anniversary of President Nixon's absolute termination of the dollar's ability to be redeemed for gold. Therefore, I thought it would be a good idea to review gold's performance since that time against some popular investments—especially since the MSFM took this same opportunity to impugn this most precious of metals—as they are always prone to do. And, to also once again explain what really drives the gold market.
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Tuesday, August 24, 2021
USDX Resurgence: Gold and Silver Don’t Let It Catch You Flat-Footed! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With its negative correlation to the metals, the USDX rally weighed heavily on gold, silver and stocks. Stop and think: what would be if it continued?
While the overwhelming majority of investors entered 2021 with a bearish outlook for the U.S. dollar, our optimism has proved quite prescient. The USDX bottomed at the beginning of the year. With the USD Index hitting a new 2021 high last week – combined with the EUR/USD, the GDX ETF, the GDXJ ETF, and the price of silver (in terms of the closing prices) hitting new 2021 lows – the ‘pain trade’ has caught many market participants flat-footed. Even silver stocks (the SIL ETF) closed at new yearly lows.
Moreover, after the USD Index surged above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern and confirmed the breakout above its cup and handle pattern, the combination of new daily and weekly highs is quite a bullish cocktail. Given all that, even if a short-term pullback materializes, the USDX remains poised to challenge ~97.5 - 98 over the medium term — perhaps even over the short term (next several weeks).