Monday, February 08, 2016

US Economy Slides One Step Further Towards A Recession / Currencies / Recession 2016

By: Dr_David_J_Harris

SUMMARY:

This article reviews whether the US is potentially sliding towards an economic recession, as defined by NBER.

• The St. Louis FED publishes a monthly report that presents the output from its smoothed US recession probabilities model.
• The model covers the period from June 1967 to the present day, and during this period there have been seven US recessions, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
• The FED model has three false positives and zero false negatives. All three false positives were within two years of a US recession starting, so they can be considered as early indicators of a recession rather than false positives.

Monday, February 08, 2016

Gold Bear Market Bottom : Mr. Bear has left the PM Sector for Greener Pastures / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Plunger

Goldtent, it appears the great gold bear of 2011-2016 has now ended. Mr Bear has now completed his work of cleaning up all the garbage and malinvestment created by reckless management teams over the past 15 years. Our sought after ultra low of HUI 66 where we were all going to ring the bell and back up the truck is not going to happen in my opinion. The bottom is in! This is my first and only call of a bear market bottom since the bear started in 2011. Its been brutal, but I believe its over. This is my best judgment based on the pieces of the puzzle I see.

Monday, February 08, 2016

Falling Oil Prices Not the Reason for U.S.’s Economic Woes / Economics / US Economy

By: Antonius_Aquinas

The dramatic fall in the global price of oil is being cited by the financial press, government officials, and academia as the catalyst for the recent abysmal U.S. economic data which shows that the economy is, in all likelihood, sliding into a recession or worse.

While falling oil prices sound like a plausible explanation for the abysmal financial numbers, anyone with a modicum of economic sense (which excludes much of the financial Establishment) can see that it is merely a smokescreen to obfuscate the real culprit.

Monday, February 08, 2016

Silver Price Workup / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

Silver finally managed to push through its upside resistance just above the $14.50 level this week and attracted some additional upside follow through as the US Dollar weakness brought on the macro trade (Dollar down - BUY commodities). For that matter copper also rallied, as did platinum. Clearly the latter two metals are not moving higher based on signs of increasing demand but rather because of those macro trades just referenced. It is purely a matter of money flows related to the movements in the foreign exchange markets, especially considering that fact that the preference in the markets at the moment is generally RISK AVOIDANCE.

Monday, February 08, 2016

Government Mandatory Depression Screening is A Depressing Thought / Politics / Government Intervention

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

The United States Preventive Services Task Force recently recommended mandatory depression screening for all Americans. The task force wants to force health insurance companies to pay for the screening. Basic economics, as well as the Obamacare disaster, should have shown this task force that government health insurance mandates harm Americans.

Monday, February 08, 2016

Stock Market At Important Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Severe correction underway.

SPX: Intermediate trend - Is the counter-trend rally over?

Monday, February 08, 2016

David Cameron Humiliated in Poland Over Refusal to Stop Taking UK Benefits, BrExit or Super State? / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The British Prime Minister, David Cameron within days of waving a white piece of paper 'Chamberlain' style received form the EU's Donald Tusk, has since been busy trying to put up a propaganda smoke screen of success of negotiations for the British public to swallow in the run up the UK's EU Freedom Referendum, literally seen begging Eastern European states to play a long with the charade so as to hood wink the British people into giving up their very final chance of attaining freedom from the emerging EU super state.

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Why Crude Oil Prices Could Continue FALLING From Here / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Jesse

By Brett Eversole

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Stock Market S&P, NAS Best, Most Reliable Answers Come From The Market And You / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Michael_Noonan

Almost everyone is searching for answers about what to do in the stock market. The two best sources are the market itself, and the second source will surprise many, but it is you! No one has a greater vested interest in your financial interests than you when it is your money on the line, at risk. The inherent problem with this simple solution is that few ever consider either source as the best solution.

Wall Street, such a big mystery. Not really. The only mystery about Wall Street is the thieves who run it. Like the Wizard of Oz, Wall Street does not want you to look behind the curtain to discover all of the fraud, the greed, and the purely self-motivated financial interests that are opposite to yours.

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Western Double Standards on North Korea / Politics / North Korea

By: Stephen_Lendman

North Korean military related activities are solely for self-defense - given longstanding US-led Western hostility and forced isolation.

Provocative US-led NATO military activities are far more extensive and menacing, preparing for premeditated wars alliance members frequently wage.

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Gold and Silver Cup and Handle - How Sweet It Is / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jesse

“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!

Those who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn.” Jesse Livermore

I had such a feeling that these jokers were going get stuffed on the usual Non-Farm Payrolls precious metals hit. And I may have had some modest wagers in that direction from this morning.

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Stocks Bear Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 1940. On Monday the market rose to SPX 1947 and then traded down to 1872 by early Wednesday. Then the market rallied to SPX 1927 early Thursday, only to selloff again and end the week at SPX 1880. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 2.35%, the NDX/NAZ lost 5.70%, and the DJ World index lost 2.20%. Economic reports for the week were again biased negatively. On the uptick: personal income, construction spending, consumer credit, Q1 GDP, plus the unemployment rate improved. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing/services, the ADP, factory orders, monthly payrolls, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit worsened. Next week will be highlighted by FED chair Yellen’s semiannual monetary policy report to Congress.

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Silver COT Paving Way for Sustained Upside Breakout Sharp Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Clive_Maund

Like gold, the bearmarket in silver should be brought to an end by the dollar breaking down, and especially the powers that be resorting to massive global QE in a last desperate effort to beat back the forces of deflation caused by gargantuan debts that are strangling the life out the world economy. Since you cannot beat the problems caused by debt by creating more debt, the end result of this will be the ruin associated with hyperinflation - and you don't to be a genius to work out what will happen to the prices of both gold and silver when that happens. The timing of the launch of the big global QE program will determine when gold and silver really take off in a big way, but it cannot be far off.

Sunday, February 07, 2016

US Dollar Double Top, Gold Prospects Brightening Rapidly / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Clive_Maund

For the 1st time in years, everything is in place for a major bullmarket phase to get underway in gold and silver. There are two big reasons for this. One is that the dollar is looking set to drop - and has started to already. The other reason, which is of course related, is that those in power look set to attempt to loosen the intensifying deflationary stranglehold on the world economy by unleashing a global QE blitz that could dwarf anything that has come before, and will end in hyperinflation. Egon Von Greyerz talks about this in an article on King World News entitled Legend Warns Global Panic Is Coming. Don't be put off by the lurid, blood-curdling presentation - I believe that what Von Greyerz writes makes perfect sense, and his gold bullion service outside of the banking system sounds like an attractive option - remember that "What's yours is theirs", so if it is inside the banking system they will simply appropriate (steal) it, if it suits them, when the time is right. Note that I have no association with Von Greyerz or KWN and no incentive for mentioning all this.

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Gold And Silver - Is A Bottom In? Nothing Confirmed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Noonan

Confirm - verb - establish the truth or correctness of (something previously believed, suspected, or feared to be the case). State with assurance that a report or fact is true.

We are again seeing more and more experts and non-experts calling for the bottom for gold and silver, but none can confirm it as a proven fact. Few realize how important it is to have confirmation that one's position is correct and will be profitable. It is confirmation that gives validity to a prior market move/event. This is the theme of our analysis, today.

Saturday, February 06, 2016

More Economic Problems...Jobs...Nasdaq Breaking Down... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market has had every excuse to use economic woes as a reason to fall hard this past week. Poor numbers from the ISM Manufacturing sector, and then a hard decline in the ISM services sector. The market refused to fall, but it was somewhat understandable since the market had taken a massive hit lower and was simply trying to unwind oversold oscillators. The bear flag, if you will, that we have been seeing on all the daily index charts. Today was day fifteen, or exactly three weeks, but it seems as if the fifteenth day was the bad one for the bulls as the market could not withstand the Jobs Report, which came in 34,000 jobs shy of expectations. 151K versus 185K expected. The futures fell initially, only to come roaring back to green for a few seconds ahead of the open. It then began to fall, and, thus, we actually gapped down across the board with the Nasdaq taking the biggest hit. The market tried a few times to come back, but it seemed as if all attempts to rally were sheared off by the bears. They seemed angry today. Enough of these flags seemed to be their mantra for the day, especially in the world of high P/E stocks.

Saturday, February 06, 2016

Gold Stocks Something has Changed / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

In our missive last week we noted that:

While good things are happening under the surface for Gold, its lack of a strong rebound in recent months argues that such a rebound is in the future but not imminent. Gold's steady downtrend could resume in the next week or two.

Saturday, February 06, 2016

The End of Tax Havens? / Politics / Taxes

By: Casey_Research

By Jeff Thomas

The image above is of a World War II German Panzer tank. So, what does that have to do with tax havens? I’ll get to that soon.

But first, let’s look at the Isle of Jersey, one of the islands in the English Channel. Most people think of it as a British tax haven, but it’s not, strictly speaking, a part of the UK and not a member of the EU. It’s a self-governing parliamentary democracy under a constitutional monarchy and has its own legal, judicial, and, most importantly, financial systems. For decades, it’s been a choice location for those who seek to avoid taxation.

Saturday, February 06, 2016

The Stocks Bear Is At The Door, Part 1: Momentum Stocks Getting Crushed / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: John_Rubino

One of the common transitions that bull markets go through as they age and die is a narrowing of leadership. As formerly strong sectors begin to stall out, investors shift into whatever is still looking good — that is, whatever still has upward momentum. Eventually capital becomes concentrated in just a few names. Then those stocks roll over and the game ends.

This time around Big Tech was the final category of momentum play, and it ended up attracting astounding amounts of money from both the usual suspects like hedge funds and some new suckers like the Central Bank of Switzerland, now a major holder of Apple shares.

Saturday, February 06, 2016

Stock Trading HOTEL CALIFORNIA ? Which Straw Will Break this Camel's Back? / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: Denali_Guide

DO you have to pick one? Pretty much it could be anyone. They take your stock out behind the barn and shoot in the head. Game over. OK so its only wounded, say 20% in a day. Did it put you under water?