Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Preparing Yourself for US Housing Market Bubble 2.0 / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Rodney_Johnson

Waiting out Bubble 1.0

I moved to Florida in 2005, just before the housing bubble peaked. Believing that prices couldn’t remain high, we bought a smaller home than we otherwise would have. Renting would’ve been nice, but we couldn’t find a rental in a school district we liked.

Home prices marched higher for six months or so, and the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index reached 206. Then things slowed down. By late 2006, it was obvious that the housing market had changed. We know what happened next.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Globalization Is Dead, But The Idea Is Not / Economics / Global Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We can, every single one of us, agree that we’re either in or just past a -financial- crisis. But that seems to be all we can agree on. Because some call it the GFC, others a recession, and still others a depression. And some insist on seeing it as ‘in the past’, and solved, while others see it as a continuing issue.

I personally have the idea that if you think central banks -and perhaps governments- have the ability and the tools to prevent or cure financial crises, you’re in the more optimistic camp. And if you don’t, you’re a pessimist. A third option might be to think that no matter what central bankers do, things will solve themselves, but I don’t see much of that being floated. Not anymore.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Smashed Silver Snaps Back into Ferocious Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

The silver bull is back. After five long, frustrating years of price smashes followed by one failed rally attempt after another, silver prices have decisively broken out to the upside.

The question facing precious metals investors now is: How sustainable is the uptrend?

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

This Suggests That Silver Will Soon Spike Significantly Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

The silver price and the US Dollar/South African Rand exchange rate (USD/ZAR) have a very interesting relationship that goes back a long way.

Basically, in the long run, the two move in opposite directions. When the USD/ZAR rate is moving up, then the silver price is moving down, and vice versa. Furthermore, when the USS/ZAR rate is making a top, then a bottom in silver is normally very close (before or after the USD/ZAR peak).

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

3 Recent Danger Signs of a Looming Recession / Economics / Recession 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY TONY SAGAMI : The world of investing is much riskier today than when I was growing up.

The biggest risk I see is an economy that is barely expanding beyond stall speed and threatening to fall into a recession.

The Census Bureau recently reported that the US economy grew at a 1.2% annualized pace in Q2. Plus, they adjusted the Q1 GDP growth rate from 1.1% down to just 0.8%.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

13 Biggest Political and Financial Distortions in the World—Here’s What it Means for Investors / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN

These are strange times.

Here’s a list of the top 13 strange things out there right now:

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Nassim Taleb Warns The Biggest Black Swan Event of All Is Coming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

We are at an incredible moment in history.

US stock markets are at nominal all-time highs. Government bonds are at or near all-time highs. Yet, central banks worldwide sit at 0% interest rates or less because things are too precarious to even raise rates a paltry 0.25% for fear of collapsing the entire system.

In “traditional” economics this makes no sense.  But we are far out of “traditional” now… we are in the extreme end-stages of a collapsing system.  When that happens, nothing makes sense from a traditional/normal perspective.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Stock Market Retrograde Uranus / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The chart below shows an alternative wave count to the one I proposed earlier this week. At this juncture (8/9/16), we have made a new high at 2187. The daily Stochastics is not confirming this new high, and the top looks irregular along with a tight Bollinger Band. In the past, the market may have pulled back nearly 10% from one of these tops and taken several weeks to do so. But, we have Uranus Retrograde and we may expect the unexpected, especially since the moon conjuncts Saturn and Mars over the next few days in the exaggerated sign of Sagittarius as we get closer to Saturn "Stationary Direct" (lows are often made while the moon is in Sagittarius).

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Wake Up and Smell the Stocks Bull Trap! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We are currently experiencing a “Kondratiev Winter” stage in this stock market which is at its’ “tipping” point.  This is where nominal to incremental highs on the SPX can be exceeded by 2%, but, by no more than 4%.  I am observing a “MARKET FAILURE” right here and now. This is a BULL TRAP!

Last Fridays’, August 5^th, 2016 rally in the SPX big price move, on low volume, resulted in no trend change to the larger BEARISH patterns. It does not change the Bearish pattern, but it probably does mean that the current rally will last for at least a few more days.  There are multiple times in which rallies are reversed during the early part of the following week after a strong jobs report.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Signs Are Silver Bull Market Is Consolidating / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Having hit a target, silver has formed what is believed to be an intermediate top over the past five weeks or so, which it should soon start to descend from, says technical analyst Clive Maund.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Gold Bullion Investors Versus the Machines / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals prices fell sharply on renewed concerns the Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates sometime this fall. Friday’s jobs report painted a picture of healthy growth, fostering a new round of speculation that Janet Yellen and the FOMC will withdraw stimulus.

Investors have seen this a thousand times before. The reaction in gold and silver markets was almost as predictable as the sunrise. When markets continually respond to highly managed data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – or some other bureaucracy – in a machine-like way, you have to assume it’s because most of the trading is actually done by high frequency trading machines (HFTs).

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Bitcoin after Recent Decline / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: short speculative positions; stop-loss at $657; initial target at $527.

The customers of the recently hacked Bitfinex exchange will most likely share the losses resulting from the theft, we read on the Wall Street Journal website:

Bitfinex, the digital-currency exchange that lost $65 million to hackers last week, plans to spread the losses among all its users, including those not directly affected by the hack.

The Hong Kong-based digital-currency exchange said in a statement Sunday that the losses from the theft would be shared, or “generalized across all accounts and assets” of its clients, with each taking a loss of around 36%.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Stock Market August 5-8 High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Ed_Carlson

The July 25 Market Update shared an interesting 60-day cycle which was due on July 22. That cycle scored a direct hit even if the pullback was not as dramatic as in past episodes. On Monday, another, shorter cycle was due. It has averaged about 42 days but has stretched to as long as 47. Either way, this cycle points to a high this week matching our Hybrid Lindsay forecast. The Hybrid forecast is detailed below.

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Will this Crude Oil Price Rally hold? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Bob_Loukas

Crude has finally reversed higher to recover some of its recent losses, and is now showing clear evidence of a new Daily Cycle (DC) and Crude Oil Rally.  There are early signs of a new Investor Cycle (IC) as well.

Midweek, Crude bottomed on day 44 before reversing sharply higher and punching through the declining trend-line.  And when it closed above the 10 day moving average, Crude confirmed that it is in the early stages of a new Daily Cycle.  From this point forward, Crude’s performance will depend on its Investor Cycle and the bear market as a whole.

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Why Won’t this Damn Stocks Bull Market Crash & Burn? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Sol_Palha

A man makes inferiors his superiors by heat; self-control is the rule. - Ralph Waldo Emerson

Central bankers are declaring war on cash for one reason only; they want to punish savers and reward speculators and in the process destroy the middle class. The only way to maintain the illusion that all is well is to get the average Joe to embrace this illusory economic recovery and what better way to achieve this then by forcing them to speculate in the markets.   The best way to force savers to speculate is to punish them for saving, and that is exactly what central bankers have been doing, and the outlook will only worsen as central banks worldwide embrace negative rates.  Those calling for higher interest rates or hoping for them are living on another planet; higher rates are history. The new trend is negative rates and investors need to adapt or die; there is no middle ground here.

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

SPX at the Edge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is only a point higher after a failed ramp attempt. A decline beneath yesterday’s low at 2177.85 breaks the first support line. The second is also at Short-term support at 2168.39. Both VIX and the Hi-Lo are far enough away from their triggers that it is likely that the second break may also correspond with their trigger levels.

Yesterday’s trading had the lowest volume of the year.

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Meanwhile in Greece.. / Politics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Everyone gets 15 minutes of fame. Greece had its spot in the limelight last year. It is now no longer famous. We have all moved on to bigger dramas, or so we think. The French feel they are the victims because of terrorist attacks, the British because of Brexit, Americans because of Trump.

Warhol’s 15 minutes of fame line is as much about the average human being’s attention span as it is about anything else, like the proliferation of media. The data in the picture at the top of this article are from 2014. They are what moved Greeks to elect Syriza in early 2015. But the Greeks found out within 6 months that this made no difference; the Troika called the shots, not the Greek people, not its government.

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Stock Market Low VIX...Low Volume....Disconnect Widens...Negative Divergences On Daily Charts... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market is getting more and more boring as volatility gets lower and lower. This is due to complacency setting, which is causing the VIX to drop while volatility falls off the earth. This can play on the emotions of traders as things barely move, and they get bored, which causes over playing and more poor choices for their trading portfolio. The market grinds higher as a bull market gets more mature due to the bears leaving the game for the most part. All that is left are the bulls. But let's face it, most are in the game. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. With the bulls in and the bears gone, there's not much to move the averages one way or the other, so the market trades in very thin ranges for most of the day and most of the time as well.

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

UK Bank Current Accounts Conundrum / Personal_Finance / Current Accounts

By: MoneyFacts

Current account customers who are considering switching their bank account will be facing an ever growing challenge to find the right deal. Now that the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) have finalised the retail banking report, many customers will be hoping for more competition in the market for their business.

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Natural Gas Surprise Drawdown Signals Higher Prices Ahead / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: OilPrice_Com

The U.S. electric power sector burned through a record amount of natural gas in recent weeks, a sign of the shifting power generation mix and also a signal that natural gas supplies could get tighter than many analysts had previously expected.

The EIA reported a surprise drawdown in natural gas inventories for the week ending on August 3. The reduction of 6 billion cubic feet (Bcf) was the first summertime drawdown since 2006. Natural gas spot prices shot up following the data release on August 4, although they fell back again shortly after.