Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, March 07, 2012
Financial Crisis 2012, Why Central Bank Liquidity is No Longer Enough / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
Since Lehman's failure in 2008, the name of the game has been to paper over deeply-rooted solvency issues in large institutions/countries with cheap liquidity. What helped keep markets afloat more than the liquidity itself, though, was the perception by the wealthiest segments of society that their solvency issues were being mitigated or resolved with a combination of loose fiscal/monetary policy and time. That perception was a more powerful and addicitng drug than the actual liquidity or promises of liquidity in the future.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2012
Has the Stock Market Correction Finally Begun? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Today is a classic example of why I have been warning traders not to push the long side of the stock market. When these creeper trends finally break they often generate a crash or semi crash type of profit-taking event.
The last 2 1/2 months were a classic example of why I have been warning traders not to short the stock market. These creeper trends can go on much longer than many people expect and shorts just end up getting whipsawed out multiple times until they're so shell shocked that they can't hold on when they finally do catch the top.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2012
Massive Up-Spike in Nasdaq Ultrashort QID / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The upmove in the UltraShort QQQ (QID) has created a massively powerful momentum up-spike, which is a relatively rare occurrence, except for when a significant counter-trend move is in progress.
Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Singapore Stock Market is the World's Biggest Bargain / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Martin Hutchinson writes: Having spent three years there as a child, I have happy memories of Singapore.
In those days, most of the locals lived in "atap" palm-frond-roofed huts and bathed by standpipes.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Financial Markets Waiting on European 'Surprise' / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Last month, we compared the investment herd to the buffalo that were stampeded over the cliffs of the Great Plains by Native American hunters.
Buffalo don't meander over cliffs. Neither does the stock market. The stampede is on and investors won't see that the ground has given way until it's too late.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Financial and Commodity Markets Support and Trendlines Being Broken / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
IWM (Russell 2000) has the most noticeable breakdown, but the other indices appear to be on a similar pattern. The initial impulse establishing the new trend is not yet complete. However, IWM seems to have broken through intermediate-term Trend Support at 80.78 and its hourly Cycle bottom support at 80.65. The 50 day moving average at 78.85 is the next potential level of support. If IWM exceeds it, then it may become resistance for the wave i bounce, which may take yet another day or two.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Economic and Financial Market Assumptions are Getting Very Ugly / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
We are now just over two months into that oft-dreaded year of 2012, and the economic and financial projections/assumptions by public and private institutions across the world have noticeably worsened. These are the same institutions (i.e. politicians, bureaucrats and executives) that have everything to lose by painting an accurate portrait of their position in the global economy, so it’s an extremely safe bet that they are still over-estimating their prospects. Nevertheless, the fact that their inflated, yet worsening projections completely destroy the myth of an economic recovery is telling.
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Monday, March 05, 2012
U.S. Dollar and Crude Oil Hold Clues About Stock Market Future / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The past few months have been a difficult environment for anyone that was bearish. The next few months may prove to be difficult for everyone regardless of directional bias.
We live in a world where headlines can move the market in split seconds as high-frequency trading robots cause flash rally's and flash crashes regularly.
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Monday, March 05, 2012
Four Cycle Turns Warn of a Stock Market Top in March 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
There is a lot of cycle evidence that suggests a top is coming in March 2012. How significant a top is hard to say, but the odds are the coming decline will be at least in the 10 percent area. If this coming top is the top of Grand Supercycle degree wave {III}, then stocks will begin a decline that could retrace 50 percent or more of the market over the next several years, with large chunks of decline occurring incrementally, followed by normal 40 to 60 percent retracements as stocks work toward significantly lower levels. This weekend we will present this cycle evidence, which we believe is compelling.
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Sunday, March 04, 2012
One Stock Market Where Sentiment is Bad... And Opportunity is Great / Stock-Markets / India
Sunday, March 04, 2012
Stock Market Volatility Bounces Bottom Awaiting Bad News or Selling to Strike! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Over the past 5 months we have seen volatility steadily decline as stocks and commodities rise in value. The 65% drop in the volatility index is now trading at a level which has triggered many selloffs in the stock market over the years as investors become more and more comfortable and greedy with rising stock prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 04, 2012
Broad Market Recap for Currencies, Metals and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The US dollar index staged a bullish engulfing candle last week putting in a bounce off the 50% retracement level and then pushed upwards in chart action staging an advance that pushed gold and silver lower.
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Sunday, March 04, 2012
Stock Market Ending an Diagonal Top? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact, but a short-term top is forming.
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Sunday, March 04, 2012
S&P 1370 Still too tough to Break, Time for Selling? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The bulls have worked long and hard to get this market to break out lover the current big resistance level at S&P 500 1370, but after many attempts over the past several days, it may be best if they give up their efforts and allow the markets to sell some to allow things to unwind far more deeply on those long overbought oscillators. Stocks such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN) could use a rest, and if they get it, this would allow the market to pull back and take the necessary pause to refresh. The bulls would actually be best served if they let this take place as it would offer up a far better buying juncture down the road. A few weeks, or months, of slight downward action would really get the job done, but we can't be sure this is about to take place, although there are subtle hints. There are somewhat more labored MACD's on the daily index charts, some leaders in various sectors are starting to lose their 50-day exponential moving averages, which is a real change of trend that hasn't happened in many months, and we are seeing a few more economic reports come in below expectations lately, this week to be exact, and this could help the bears get a bit more aggressive and tell the bulls to step back.
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Sunday, March 04, 2012
Stock Market Uptrend Top for Potential Extension / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
A consolidation week for the major US indices, as the SPX traded in another narrow range: 1355-1378, but made another new uptrend high. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, but the NDX/NAZ were +0.7%. Asian markets gained 0.6%, European markets gained 0.7%, but the DJ World index was -0.1%. Economic reports for the week were mixed: 6 Up and 6 Down. On the downtick: durable goods orders, Case-Shiller, personal income, ISM manufacturing, construction spending and investor sentiment. On the uptick: pending home sales, consumer confidence, Q4 GDP, the Chicago PMI, personal spending, and the WLEI. Overall it was a fairly quiet trendless week after wednesday’s open. Next week: the monthly Payrolls report, Consumer credit and ISM services.
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Saturday, March 03, 2012
Groundhog Day Meets the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Another day, another week passed and it feels like we are all living a dream and playing the role Bill Murray did in the movie Groundhog Day. Virtually the past week felt like February 2nd.
Still there were some trades around for those traders that were keeping in touch with the markets. The obvious ones were gold and silver.
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Saturday, March 03, 2012
DOW Ending Diagonal Pattern, Stock Market to Head Sharply Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
DOW Short Term Forecast Update
Many investors have been frustrated with the choppy action on the DOW, so we have provided a chart to illustrate our forecast on the expected price action. This corrective choppy action is an ending diagonal pattern which is a terminal pattern. We should see further downside below the lower trendline with a a sharp decline to at least the starting point of the ED pattern at 12550. We should expect to see a brief rally at this level before further downside.
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Saturday, March 03, 2012
Stock Market Dismisses Doom and Points to the Road to Economic Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Over the last 11 weeks, investors have enjoyed a continuing rising trend in equity markets. If the news pointed to rising tensions in the Middle East, higher cost at the gas pump, debt levels around the world that nations could not sustain, they were all dismissed. The road to "recovery" has spoken in "the markets".
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Friday, March 02, 2012
Gaining From Gargantua Until it Collapses / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
“I’d rather write about laughing than crying. For laughter makes men human and courageous.”
La vie de Gargantua et de Pantagruel
Francois Rabelais
There is indeed a Gargantuan Giant growing in the International Economy and Markets. It is growing, and will continue to grow, until it collapses, inevitably.
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Friday, March 02, 2012
Why is the Financial World So Messed Up? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Why is the financial world so messed up? Because it’s run by Central Bankers. And those folks view money very differently from the businesspeople who actually create businesses, jobs, and wealth.
For your average Central Banker, the professional relationship between money and risk is a distant one. This has much to do with the fact that your average Central Banker is an academic, someone whose income has been fixed based on his or her status at a particular academic institution (tenure vs. non-tenured).
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