Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Stock Market Downtrend Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Tony_Caldaro
A nasty week in many markets worldwide. The week started off with a gap down opening after closing last week at SPX 2075. It had another gap down opening on Tuesday, then a third gap down on Wednesday hitting SPX 2024. Thursday the market reversed the volatility with a gap up and hit SPX 2056. Then Friday resumed the turbulence to the downside with another gap down opening, and market ended the week at its low SPX 2002. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 3.65%, the NDX/NAZ lost 2.65%, and the DJ World index lost 3.60%. Economic reports for the week were biased to the upside. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories, retail sales, consumer sentiment, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit improved. On the downtick: export/import prices, the PPI, and the monetary base. Next week lots of action. Highlights include the FOMC meeting, Industrial production, Housing, and Options expiration.
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Overbought Stock Market Pullback...Finally.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
The market was begging for it. Day after day we stayed pretty much at overbought levels on all the major oscillators. The RSI's are sometimes staying well above normal overbought levels of 70. Readings in the lower 80's are not abnormal. You sit and wonder how long it can last. You know it's going to finally sell hard, but figuring out that moment is not an easy chore by any means. We have stayed overbought longer than most would have thought possible, and those who shorted at the first signs of overbought paid a big price as the market kept climbing higher.
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Saturday, December 13, 2014
U.S. Congress Has Guaranteed the Secular Stocks Bear Market is Not Over / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Sy_Harding
The cyclical bull market that began in 2009 has not ended. Enjoy it while it lasts because the long-term secular bear market that began in 2000 has also not ended.
Secular markets are very long-term trends within in which cyclical market moves take place. The last secular bull market ran for 18 years, from 1982 to the peak in 2000.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
Stock Market SPX Top Valuations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
The prevailing valuations in the lofty US stock markets are increasingly becoming a bone of contention. Wall Street calmly asserts stocks are fairly valued or even cheap, since it has a huge vested interest in keeping people fully-invested. But a growing chorus of dissenters is disputing that idyllic notion, warning that stock valuations are very high and portend great downside risk. Indeed, topping valuations abound.
Since investing is all about buying low and selling high, the price paid for any investment is everything. Buy good companies at cheap prices, and you’ll multiply your wealth over time. But buying those very same good companies at expensive prices radically stunts future gains. While cheap investments have great potential to soar as traders recognize their inherent value, expensive ones have already exhausted their upside.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
Mastering the Art of Financial Backtalk / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Dennis_Miller
Alan Greenspan has popped back into the limelight and confirmed some of my worst fears (not that they needed much confirming). Here’s a recap of statements Greenspan made at the New Orleans Investment Conference:
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Friday, December 12, 2014
Largest Financial Bubble in History - 10 years of 'Why Sell Now?' / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Doug_Wakefield
While finding the end of the largest financial bubble in history has proved very illusive over the last three years for some of the most seasoned market technicians in the world, the last fifteen have allowed us to have many reminders that wild rides to the top have always ended the same.
Friday, December 12, 2014
A Probable Stock Market Crash Scenario / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Today we are at an equivalent point with the high on October 14, 1987. History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
On Wednesday, October 14, 1987, the SPX retested the bottom trendline of its Broadening Wedge in a Minute wave [ii]. Today we crossed inside (for a second time) a more bearish Orthodox Broadening Top in a Minute wave [ii].
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
When the Market Moves Fast, Stuff Blows Up / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: John_Mauldin
One of my old rules of trading is that whenever a major asset class, index, or other benchmark has a sudden, rapid move in price, something blows up. Sky high.
That’s because people get used to regimes. They get used to a certain state of affairs with a lack of volatility. They become complacent. Maybe they stop hedging. Maybe they allow themselves to have unbounded downside risk. Maybe they start gambling.
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
State of the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: David_Banister
We are seeing normal corrective declines in the broader indexes of late. December has been volatile from day one. Tax selling is obvious to me, and we are seeing extreme oversold set ups in Energy stocks. Insiders have been loading up the last few weeks yet those same stocks are still declining, and we think Hedge funds are taking on heavy losses, and selling is begetting selling.
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
Stock Markets Sell Off Following Negative Global Economic Outlook / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,085 and profit target at 1,950, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, December 11, 2014
10 Outrageous Predictions For 2015 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Interesting – if not outrageous – remarks today from Steen Jakobsen at Saxo Bank in Denmark, always good for some fresh insights, and a statement from him that I would like to decorate with a few question marks. As WTI oil looks threatening to break through $60 a barrel with another 5% loss today, let’s first take a look at Saxo’s, and hence Steen’s, Outrageous Predictions, via Tyler Durden. We can take it from there.
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Run Away from the Fed Economic Tsunami / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Dennis_Miller
This warning comes from “Big Al” Greenspan, age 88. He’s been in the news a lot lately, speaking with Gillian Tett of the Financial Times at the Council on Foreign Relations and at the New Orleans Investment Conference. After reading several reports of both events, I spoke with Casey Research colleagues who’d attended the conference and asked, “Did Big Al really say this, this, and this?”
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Doug Casey on Russia and Russian Stocks / Stock-Markets / Russia
By: Casey_Research
By Nick Giambruno
Nick: Okay Doug, so looking around, what markets look cheap to you today?
Doug: I saw recently that many stocks in Greece are selling at around four times earnings. But I don’t know what the quality of their earnings are. Of course, the dividend yield on Greek stocks isn’t very high, and dividends are, I think, the best real indicator of how much free cash flow there actually is in a company.
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Is The Halt of QE3 The End of The Loose Monetary Policy? / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The end of QE3 neither implies the real abandon of purchasing assets (due to reinvesting interest and principal payments and rolling over retiring Treasuries) nor the permanent exclusion bond-buying programs from the tools of monetary policy. Investors should also be aware that the end of QE3 does not rule out loose monetary policy. Why?
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
US Dollar and SP 500 Rally Fizzling Out? Gold Breaks Five Month Downtrend / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Jeb_Handwerger
In a recent article I wrote, "Gold and silver could gap higher by the end of 2014 and the top notch juniors could skyrocket." I expected a breakout at $1205. It appears gold may be breaking that downtrend today.
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Stock Market George Lindsay 22year Cycle Overlay / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Ed_Carlson
George Lindsay described his 22y overlay in a two part installment of his newsletter in 1964. In it he showed 18 examples of how the model had helped to time highs in the Dow. In the 22y overlay we are searching for three important intervals ending at a high 22y, 15y, and 8y later. Lows appear every ~7y followed by a high 8y after the final low.
Some of the highs he showed were significant and some were not. The significance of the forecast can predetermined by the significance of the 22y and 15y interval lows. The significance of the 8y interval does not affect the expected decline.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
European Banks At Risk Of Bail Ins In 2015 Warn Moody's and S&P / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2015
By: GoldCore
Europe's banks are vulnerable in 2015 due to weak macroeconomic conditions, unfinished regulatory hurdles and the risk of bail-ins according to credit rating agencies.
Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Finally Some Stock Market Selling...Nothing Bearish Yet.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
And that's the key to the whole thing. Ask yourself, is the selling that took place today bearish? Answer is that for now, not at all. No heavy push negative on the daily oscillators. No big gap down that closed at or near the lows. Just overbought conditions getting unwound as they need to be. I get tired of staring at 70 RSI's, or higher, on the daily-index charts. Thankfully, they are now all below. Many in the 50's, except the Dow. Safest dividend stocks getting the action, thus, the Dow is still in the mid-to-upper 60's. At least it's an index of only 30 stocks. So yes, solid unwinding on the index sixty-minute charts and some decent unwinding on those key-index-daily charts.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
SPX Breaks Short-term Supports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The short-term uptrend is broken and SPX is trading back inside its larger Orthodox Broadening Top. However, it has also developed a smaller Orthodox Broadening Top (green). In order to fulfill its structure, it should decline to 1960.00-1980.00 in the next couple of days before a bounce. The bounce may either go back to mid-Cycle support/resistance at 2056.70 before proceeding back down to lower levels. Today’s decline may be considered an aggressive sell signal for SPX.
Monday, December 08, 2014
Crude Oil Panic Knock-on Effects / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Crude just broke below its prior low at 63.72, hitting 63.47 as I write this memo. It appears that it will decline to its Wave [iii] target of 58.45 in the next 24 hours, creating another 10% down day panic.