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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Volatility Soaring....Whipsaw....Down Bias For Now.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Dec 18, 2014 - 10:59 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

Volatility is soaring and traders are suffering. Too difficult to play with massive whipsaw moves intraday just about everywhere, but with the trend still clearly lower for now. When the VIX is in the low teens it's easy on the soul, but when it rockets in to the lower 20-range, things can get very intense. You can barely keep up with the score. You blink and the S&P 500 moves five points. You blink again and it's another five, and so on. The range for the day across the board on all the key-index charts can give you motion sickness. Huge drifting. This is when markets become too difficult to put the finger on the buy or sell button. It becomes luck trades and that's not what you want to be doing. It can work, but Russian roulette is better used somewhere else.


So volatility was soaring and it too was whipping all over the place. This all began when the markets recently topped out. 50-day exponential moving averages disappearing on the key-index daily charts. The S&P 500 now clearly below, thus, those 50's are now resistance on rally attempts. 2019 the level. Bears get more aggressive when those 50-day disappear and we saw that big time today when the futures were up pre market. The S&P 500 tested to those 50's and died right there. A few attempts to get back through were wiped out quickly enough. The bears showing they won't be scared away as easily as in the recent past. So today was another down-day, but things are getting very oversold now on the short-term charts, so we should expect some type of rally shortly. The VIX should signal that moment.

What's the best way to hurt the masses? The market can be very nasty sometimes. It can show you one thing one day that says things are very bullish only to twist it around shortly, thereafter, and take down the masses. That's seen best in the behavior of the financial stocks. A very long-term base finally broke out with Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) leading the way. The breakouts across the board held for many days which often signals the coast is clear. The other side of the trade is done. The bears pulled out the rug on the financial bears, and we are now seeing all those stocks lose the base breakouts. Very nasty action there.

When breakouts fail it doesn't mean it's done for good but it can signal a longer period of failure to be sure. You can go from breakout to breakdown rather quickly. Let's hope those bases hold, but if they don't things could get very ugly not only for those stocks, but the entire market since the financials are heavily weighted and can lead lower. Many other sectors are showing topping action. The Market Vectors Biotech ETF (BBH), or the biotechnology sector, doesn't have the very best looking oscillators on its daily chart. MACD crossing down from high levels with a gap down to act as resistance. If more and more join in the selling can get much worse, so let's take it easy from here for a while, until the VIX signals the all clear for a little while. The market is showing its dark side these days. Respect it.

All of this is great for sentiment. There is always an upside to things when the market falls. The bull-bear spread is hopefully at, or below, 30%. It has been at, or very above, 30% for ten straight months. That's terrible. The market is paying a small price right now. Another bad week here and we could see mid-twenty readings. Hopefully, even lower, but it's good to have the spread out of the 40's. We stay out of the way here knowing 2019 is going to be very difficult resistance on any counter-trend rally attempts. The lower the better for the short-term, but we are very oversold, so we can rally at any time.

Be smart and keep things very light all around. 1941 next support on the S&P 500, if we can't get back through 2019.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


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