Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, June 05, 2015
Stock Market Set up for a Flash Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
As I had suggested, SPX impulse down to the double Megaphone trendline. It appears ready for a retracement, but it is hard to tell if it will go much beyond the 50-day Moving Average.
Remember, this is the start of a Minute Wave [iii]. Things may get interesting from here, even though it is only less than 2% off the market high. Yesterday’s high may be the top of point 7 in the Orthodox Broadening Top pattern. The opportunity for a flash crash is very high…about 96% once SPX makes its 2nd decline through the trendline.
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Thursday, June 04, 2015
Asian Markets Are Flashing Strong "Buy" Signals / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Elliott Wave International's Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast editor offers you his forecasts for long-term investment opportunities
In this informative new interview, Elliott Wave International's Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast editor, Mark Galasiewski, tells you about three new investment opportunities in the region.
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Thursday, June 04, 2015
Stock Market Valuations - Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
A recurring theme in my letters is the various ways in which we can go about determining valuations for stocks and other investments. My good friend Steve Blumenthal has gathered a number of charts from various authorities showing different ways to look at valuations for today’s US stock market. He topped it off with some very good estimates of forward-looking returns on total US equity portfolios. He is not arguing to get out but rather to be aware of where we are and to temper your expectations for the future. Steve writes in an easy, fluid style that I think you will enjoy as this week’s Outside the Box.
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Thursday, June 04, 2015
Prepare Now For the Epic Crisis in Central Banking / Stock-Markets / Central Banks
Last year (2014) will likely go down in history as the “beginning of the end” for the current global Central Banking system.
What will follow will be a gradual unfolding of the next crisis and very likely the collapse of the Central Banking system as we know it.
However, this process will not be fast by any means.
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Thursday, June 04, 2015
The Dow Just Gave Stock Investors a “Buy” Signal... Did You Miss It? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Matthew Carr writes: I’ve been passionate about art my whole life.
In fact, I spent a large chunk of my undergrad years studying the various techniques used in digital design... painting... photography... and animation.
One of the first things you learn in animation is the bouncing ball.
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Thursday, June 04, 2015
Buying Stocks on Margin - The Dumbest Man in China / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes:
Thursday, June 04, 2015
Stock Market Daily Charts Still Favorable....Long-Term Charts Are Not.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
So what do you trust more? In the very short-term I have always followed the short-term charts over the longer-term charts. You try to follow the most trustworthy index charts and they can be found on the daily charts. Weekly and monthly charts seem to take too long to use for your short-term trading. They'll kick in at some point, but it's too unpredictable. So if we use the daily charts you can see those key-index oscillators are in good shape with the MACD stochastic's and RSI all out of overbought territory. The room is there on all of the oscillators if the bulls can make the move. None of those key oscillators would get overbought until the triple-top breakout at S&P 500 2134 was long gone.
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Thursday, June 04, 2015
Stock Major Market Stress / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
This is the updated P&F Chart of the Institutional "core holdings" that we posted last week.
Note how it has stayed within its rising wedge pattern ... that is a short term plus for now and until there is a downside breakout. (Historically, rising wedges break to the downside.)
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Wednesday, June 03, 2015
SPX Making a Double Zigzag / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
SPX has completed a double zigzag. This does not fit a Wave (c) ending, but tells us there is a high likelihood for yet another zigzag to complete an Ending Diagonal formation. The target appears to be 2126.22, which will make it an Expanded Flat Wave [ii]. It may also delay the decline until Monday.
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Wednesday, June 03, 2015
How To Spot A Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
We’ve been entertaining ourselves to no end the past couple days with a ‘vast array’ of articles that purport to provide us with ‘expert’ opinion on the question of whether we are witnessing a bubble or not. Got the views of Goldman’s David Kostin, Robert Shiller, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Howard Marks.
But although these things can be quite amusing because while they’re at it, of course, the ‘experts’ say the darndest things (check Bloomberg ‘Intelligence’s Carl Riccadonna: “You had equity markets benefit from QE, but eventually QE also jump-started the broader recovery.. Ultimately everyone’s benefiting.”), we can’t get rid of this one other nagging question: who needs an expert to tell them that today’s markets are riddled with bubbles, given that they are the size of obese gigantosauruses about to pump out quadruplets?
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Wednesday, June 03, 2015
Stock Market At Major Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The news this morning centers around the Ten Year Note Yield, which appears to have exceeded its prior high. The best fit would be a Wave (v) of Minute Wave [c] of Minor Wave B. This would allow a strong Wave C decline to finish off the decline in yields for good.
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Tuesday, June 02, 2015
You Don’t Know Where the Stock Market is Heading! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
I’ve been of two minds recently regarding the current Cycle picture in equities. So this week I focused more attention on finding secondary evidence to support a more definitive position ondirection. As I suspected it might, my research provided an almost endless array of contradictory evidence and facts.
The internet and social media are a mixed blessing to researchers – they can lead to a huge number of hypotheses and points of view, but the quality of information is generally pretty low. At its best, however, the internet can lead to ideas and links to compelling analysis and primary sources. The point is that there exists online a mass of data points, ideas, opinions, analyses and thesis that can occasionally help to bring real clarity of thought, but more often, the information serves only to confuse, and even obfuscate. From a trader’s perspective, the information is generally unable to answer the questions that are of greatest import.
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Tuesday, June 02, 2015
For Stocks, Things Are Always Getting Better! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
On Monday evening, May 18, 2015, ECB board member Benoit Coeure gathered together a group of bankers and hedge fund managers. That evening, Mr. Coeure gave them the ECB’s game plan for accelerating bond purchases in the euro-zone. Of course, this was a closed meeting and the general public, the slaves, were not privy to this information that would surely move equity and monetary indexes. This group was given ample time on Tuesday morning to set their positions accordingly. Then, around noon, the public was informed of the new ECB intention. This is known as ‘insider trading’ and it is a felony unless of course the person or institution using the insider information is a banker or bank or hedge fund manager. So, we can all conclude that equity prices are gamed by the same people who rig them. Average investors simply need to understand the criminality.
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Tuesday, June 02, 2015
Lindsay Forecast for the End of the Stocks Bull Market – Part3 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Lindsay’s Long Cycle serves as the basis for forecasting bull and bear markets. It lasts for approximately 20 years and its important highs and lows are labeled points A through M.
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Tuesday, June 02, 2015
Stock Market Nice Recovery from Morning Declines / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The stock market indices started the day off with a very sharp decline, breaking two levels of support, but within an hour had stabilized, and then reversed sharply, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 4490 to over 4535, a 45-point rally in a 3-wave run. They consolidated midafternoon as the S&P 500 made a nominal new high, but the NDX could not confirm it, and rolled over in the last hour to pare back the gains. Nevertheless, it was still a positive session, but narrowly so.
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Tuesday, June 02, 2015
The Stock Market Different Book Theory..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The market has no trend you can count on. It's been that way for a drop over six months now. When a market is in a trend you can count on, technical analysis flows. Charts flow in a rhythm. When there is no trend there's no flow meaning you can look at a chart and say you think it should do one thing, but you can't count on it, because the lack of trend is like opening a new book each and every day. A non-trending market equals a market of frustration and a lack of consistent action, thus you need to keep your expectations down big time. Not over play because so many set-ups simply won't work. They may look good, but you can't count on getting out of it what you see on a given day. A different book is what causes the biggest losses as many get caught in the moment, with what seems to be rather than losing that expectation.
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Tuesday, June 02, 2015
Stock Market 2007 All Over Again? Mega-Merger Edition / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Intel is buying chip maker Altera. Charter is buying Time Warner Cable. All the big drug makers are buying all the mediums-sized ones.
Great news, right? If these huge companies with their top-of-the-line analytical tools and deep insight into their markets think paying way up to build empires is wise, then the stock market, far from being overvalued, must be cheap.
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Monday, June 01, 2015
Stock Market All Eyes on The Prize / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
DOW
In my last article I was looking for new highs on the DOW, well we finally got that now, so with the DOW finally making a new high it's at least potentially completed the ending diagonal idea I have been working from the Oct 2014 lows. The only issue I see is the decline from the last peak is a messy move and not that impulsive, so see a retest of the all time highs would not surprise me.
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Monday, June 01, 2015
Stock Market On the Brink? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - The bull market is still intact.
Intermediate trend - Are long-term cycles sketching an important top?
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Sunday, May 31, 2015
Stock Market Wild Swings Coming! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Last time I wrote, the market looked toppy and I was anticipating a 2.5 week low Tuesday (which used to be the dominant 5 week lo). We rallied Wednesday after the expected selling then sold off the rest of the week. I had said that I expected a June 1 top, but after careful study realized that the top would be June 3 instead.
The Mercury Retrograde mid-point low is due 12 calendar days after the initial retrograde point May 18-19, which points to May 30/31 for the low. That means the low will be on June 1 because May 30/31 falls on a weekend. There is also an adjusted Gann 16 TD low due Monday too. I expect initial buying (9/10 pts) on a possible gap up followed by selling down to about SPX 2085/86.
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