Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
Stock Market Waiting for the Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX futures are flat with little overnight activity as I write. The theme seems to be “Waiting for the Fed.”
Bill Blain comments in Blain’s Morning Porridge, “Back on Planet Sensible, I was asking round the trading desks this morning for any particular themes or issues they’ve been picking up from clients. Nobody seems to be enjoying February.
You must understand my colleagues and crew are a hard-bitten crowd of former investment bankers, traders and other financial desperados who’ve spent careers up to their eyeballs in financial mayhem and gore… “Last chance to sell,” was the answer from one particular cynic.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
Buckle Up: Stocks Are About to Begin “The Next Leg Down.” / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Graham_Summers
Major declines follow a distinct pattern:
1) The initial drop.
2) The bounce.
3) The final collapse.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 20, 2018
Stock Market End Is Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The doomsayers have been calling for recession for years. Mainstream economists laughed at them, painting a rosy picture. However, the recent plunge in the stock market strengthened the pessimists’ hand. They interpret the dive as a signal of a coming recession. Is the end of the stock market boom really near?
Tuesday, February 20, 2018
Stock Market Breakout Rally will Squeeze Shorts In March / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our proprietary price modeling systems are showing us that our expected price basing, which we have been warning our members of for near 3 months, has altered in range and scope. What we did expect to happen near February 21 is now expected to START sometime between February 21 and February 26. In other words, we are warning our clients that a moderate downside move is expected in the US majors through most of this current week ending near the end of February before a strong rally in prices is likely to begin.
Monday, February 19, 2018
Stock Market Decision Point! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – An intermediate correction from 2872 is currently underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 18, 2018
Will the Stock Market Make a Double Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Submissions
Troy Bombardia writes:The S&P 500 has already fallen more than -10% (-11.8% to be precise). A brief study using VIX suggested that the stock market would retest its lows in the next few weeks. Let’s expand that study.
Read full article... Read full article...What happens when the S&P falls at least -10% and then retraces 50% of the decline? Is the bottom in? Or does the S&P at least retest its lows?
Saturday, February 17, 2018
1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Despite a tough week for stocks into Friday, February 9, three big picture macro indicators have continued to support a risk ‘on’ backdrop. Many of the shorter-term indicators we watch, like Junk bond ratios and the Palladium/Gold ratio say the same thing. Junk/Treasury and Junk/Investment Grade are threatening new highs and as we have noted in NFTRH updates all through the recent market volatility, Palladium (cyclical) got hammered vs. Gold (counter-cyclical), but only to test its major uptrend. Now the ratio is bouncing with the market relief that is so predictably taking hold (here’s a public post where we effectively called bullish, in-day on that Friday).
As for the bigger macro indicators, the middle one, Amigo #2 (long-term interest rates) has that funny look on his face because he is bracing for something.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 16, 2018
How to Trade as We Near March Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our focus is to provide you with updated and accurate market price predictions for all of 2018, we believe we are entering a period that will be fantastic for traders and active investors. We believe this recent volatility has shaken out the low volatility expectations and will allow the markets to start moving in a more normal rotational mode going forward. This means we’ll have lots of trading opportunities to profit from.
For those of you who have not been following our research over the past 2 to 3 months, we urge you to visit our Technical Traders Ltd. website to read our published research and to learn how we’ve been calling these moves in the markets for our members. We called the early 2018 market rally weeks before it started. We called the lower price rotation over a month before it happened. We called the bottom in this price correction almost to the day and told our members that we believed a very quick Pennant price formation was set up that will drive prices higher which we have seen this week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 16, 2018
IS Today Thee Stock Market Turn Day? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures were higher overnight, but appear to be coming back down as the cash open approaches. The total retracement was 58.5%, an overshoot that was carried by the all-pervading enthusiasm to buy the dip coupled with a stop hunt to remove any timid short sellers who thought they could protect themselves with stop-losses.
.ZeroHedge reports, “Global stocks were set to post their best week of gains in six years on Friday after two consecutive weeks spent in the red, shrugging off a rise in global borrowing costs while the dollar hit its lowest level since 2014. The MSCI world index rose 0.4% after European bourses opened. .After suffering its biggest weekly drop since August 2015 last week, this week’s recovery puts the index on track for its best weekly showing since early December 2011.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 16, 2018
Have You Been Getting Run Over By This Stock Market Action? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
"Stocks are going down because the economy is too good?"
How many times did you hear something like that quote over the last two weeks on television? And, it was accompanied by the barrage of reports proclaiming the demise of the bull market which began in 2009. But, if you are a thinking person, clearly you had to have been scratching your head.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Stock Market Final Word... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
A final word this afternoon…
It appears that this rally will last between 3:00 and 4:00 today. The reason I say that is because sometime after 3:00 the rally will have taken 30.1 hours or 4.3 days. So, as well as reaching its Fibonacci levels, the 50-day MA and Wave relationships, SPX will have made a half-Cycle of 4.3 days from bottom to top.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
TNX futures are in focus this morning as yields creep ever higher. The overnight high was 29.44, and while the 150% Fib level is at 29.66. Since then it has pulled back, but there does not seem to be an end to higher rates, yet. There may possibly be one more probe higher to the top. Possible targets range from 30.18 to 31.36.
As Northman Trader pointed out yesterday, there is a Cup with Handle formation with the Lip at 27.00 that suggests a probable target for Wave 5 near 37.00. However, the Cycles Model suggests a probable retracement to the neckline may occur first.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Stocks Extend Rally Off Friday's Low, But Short-Term Exhaustion Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
S&P 500 index gained 1.3% on Wednesday, following lower opening of the trading session. The market has extended its rally from Friday's low. But will it continue higher today? We can see some short-term overbought conditions. Was this two-week-long sell-off the beginning of a new medium-term downtrend or just downward correction before another leg up? It's hard to say, but this move down set the negative tone for weeks or months to come.
The U.S. stock market extended its short-term uptrend on Wednesday. The main indexes gained 1.0-1.9% following lower opening of the trading session. The S&P 500 index broke above its Monday-Tuesday trading range. The broad stock market gauge retraced most of its last week's Wednesday-Friday's sell-off, as it got close to 2,700 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9% yesterday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Stock Market Out on a Limb... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The time expended on the decline to 2638.17 at the close on February 5 was exactly 43 hours. That was the evidence that I had led me to believe that it was the end of Wave (1). The opening gap at 2593.07 on Tuesday February 6 appeared to be a Wave B. That allowed me to believe that Wave (1) had finished. What appeared to be an extra Wave now turns out to be the finish of Wave 3. There are multiple factors going into this re-write of the Elliott Waves. The main one is that the 50% retracement of the entire decline to February 9 is at 2704.99. Today’s high is 2701.86. It appears that an A-B-C rally from the low is complete, as well.
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Stocks, Bonds on the Edge... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
The last couple of days have been testing our patience. The 61.8% retracement of Wave 1 has been surpassed and the SPX futures are making marginally new retracement highs. I feel compelled to say that the cautionary levels for SPX is the 78.6% retracement at 2685.00.
ZeroHedge observes, “As we previewed earlier this week, only one number matters for the markets - both stocks and bonds - this week, and it will be released at 8:30am this morning, when the BLS unveils the January CPI print, dubbed by various trading desks as "the most important CPI print ever", with every trader, both carbon and semiconductor based, focusing only on whether core CPI comes at 0.2% as expected, or higher. If it's the latter, TSY yields will spike - conventional wisdom goes - while the second leg of the equity rout could be unleashed. Inversely, if the core CPI disappoints, we may see a sharp move lower in 10Y yields and the dollar, while stocks prepare to retest all time highs.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Is Stock Market “Short Volatility” Blow-Up Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Graham_Summers
The markets have changed and many are going to get “taken to the cleaners.”
Last year, 2017, was a not a normal year for stocks. Stocks as an asset class are not meant to go straight up without even a 1% pullback. But that is precisely what happened for nearly an entire year.
Now that massive market rig is over. And anyone who continues to invest as though it’s 2017 is going to get annihilated in the coming weeks. The only thing that stop an all out crash in stocks was clear and obvious intervention in the markets by Central Banks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Stock Market Dead Cat Bounce is Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is “letting the stock market go.”
As I’ve outlined multiple times, if the Fed has to choose between supporting the bond bubble or supporting stocks, it will choose bonds Every. Single. Time.
The fact is that in a debt-saturated world such as the one we live in today, if stocks collapse, investors and Wall Street get angry. If bonds collapse, entire countries go bust.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Stock Market is Getting Scary... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Today was a bit of frustration. The SPX wouldn’t go down, but it didn’t go higher, either. Tomorrow appears to be gearing up for a big down day. Wave relationships suggest that possibly both the Head & Shoulders and Broadening Wedge targets may be reached in the next two days. Do the math. That’s approximately a 20% decline from here.
Mike (Mish) Shedlock comments, “Interbank lending took a historic dive. Readers ask "What's happening?" Let's investigate.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Stock Market - This Time is Different. Really?! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Axel_Merk
“Don’t panic, buy the dip, who cares?” or “These are rumblings of an earthquake, people will be hurt like in 1929” - which one is it? I would call it a wake-up call. Let me explain:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
SPX Futures Are Sliding... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are sliding as the decline begins to take hold again. SPX retraced 71.7% of Wave 1, mainly due to the stop hunt that was done to wipe out the shorts. This constitutes a near 50% retracement of the entire decline. Most Elliotticians are still looking for a 61.8% retracement, as they believe that Wave (1) had concluded on Friday.
The reason w only got a 53.5% retracement on Wave (1) is because virtually no one was short until the 50-day Moving Average was crossed. Thus we see this rebound making the 61.8% retrace, as more traders were willing to go short, but with stops.
Read full article... Read full article...