Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, April 12, 2019
The Fed Created an Economy of Zombies and Unicorns / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
Central bankers have a well-worn playbook for handling recessions.
Cut interest rates, increase liquidity, and otherwise shove capital into the private sector. This helps businesses hire more workers and raise wages. Then gradually remove all the stimulus as growth recovers.
This playbook truly fell apart in 2008. The system had so much debt that adding yet more of it didn’t have the desired effect.
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Thursday, April 11, 2019
S&P 500 at 2,900 Mark, Will Stocks Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks retraced some of their Tuesday’s decline yesterday, as they continued to fluctuate following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index traded slightly below the 2,900 mark. Will the uptrend continue despite some technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.7% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following Tuesday’s decline. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 1.8% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,890-2,900, marked by some early October local highs. The next resistance level is at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,860-2,865, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at 2,835-2,850, marked by the previous Monday’s daily gap up of 2,836.03-2,848.63.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Stock Market Intra-day Fibonacci Modeling Shows Volatility Is About To Spike / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd. alerted us to a Fibonacci technical pattern that is setting up in the US stock market right now. This pattern suggests that volatility will increase dramatically over the next few days/weeks as intra-day price action suggests deeper sideways price action may continue.
One of the key benefits of our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is that it automatically learns and adjusts to price action on different intervals. So, by watching the results of this adaptive learning model on various intervals shows different types of setups and expectations, we can develop a consensus among the result to assist us in determining a likely outcome. These models are showing that volatility will increase by expanding out the Fibonacci Trigger Levels for Bullish and Bearish price action. As price begins to consolidate, the proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system adjusts internal computational measures to determine where and when the opportunity exists for trends to form. When these Fibonacci Trigger levels move away from price, it typically suggests bigger moves are about to happen and that volatility will increase.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my final video in a series of 10 that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into September 2019.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Trump’s Trade War Is Nowhere Near Over / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Patrick_Watson
If you follow daily market action, you can tell investors don’t like tariffs or other trade restrictions. Stock prices rise when it looks like US and Chinese negotiators are making progress. They fall when President Trump makes new threats or negotiations fall apart.
We’ve seen it dozens of times in the last year.
Lately, we see more celebrating. People seem to think some sort of trade war resolution is near—or at least an extension of last December’s truce.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Is This The Last Leg Higher for the DOW Stock Market Index? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this current upside price move is nearing the end of any immediate upside potential. Yes, back in December 2018 and before, we called for an “Ultimate Low” pattern setup followed by an incredible run to new all-time highs when almost everyone else was calling for a continued downside price move. Now, that the YM/DOW is only 640 points away from reaching all-time highs again, we believe a new price peak will setup sometime near June/July 2019.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast to September 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the last in a 10 part series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into September 2019. However the whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Monday, April 08, 2019
Watch For +15% Move In Chinese Stocks / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week we had strong numbers out of China and our research continues to suggest the Chinese stock market could be poised for an upside price rally of at least 15% over the next 30+ days before possibly reaching a peak in June or July 2019. Our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting a target level of $30.50 to $31.50 (in YINN) as an immediate upside profit range.
We believe the continued pricing pressures of 2018 are easing as continued negotiations with US trade officials have everyone in high hopes for a suitable and equitable outcome. Our researchers believe the upside in the Chinese stock market could be as high as $32 to $36 in YINN before the June/July peak is reached. This would represent a +25% to +40% upside price objective from recent highs.
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Monday, April 08, 2019
Stock Market Ending Diagonal Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 appears to be decelerating and forming a top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, April 07, 2019
What US Economic Fundamentals Say For Stock Market Trend 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the ninth analysis in a series of videos that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Stock Market Dow Stocks Index covering to September 2019.
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Sunday, April 07, 2019
Falling Trade Deficit is Good for Stocks: True or False? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: EWI
A common claim from economic and stock market observers is that a rising trade deficit is injurious to the economy -- hence, bearish for stocks. On the other hand, a falling trade deficit is commonly believed to be bullish for stocks.
Sounds like common sense, but the price action of the main stock indexes often defy reason.
For example, on March 27, CNBC reported, "The U.S. trade deficit fell much more than expected in January to $51.15 billion, from a forecast $57 billion. The decline of 14.6 percent represented the sharpest drop since March 2018... ." Yet on the day the news was released, the main U.S. stock indexes closed lower.
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Saturday, April 06, 2019
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the eigth analysis in a series of videos that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Stock Market Dow Stocks Index covering to September 2019.
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
The Stock Market is Eerily Quiet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market went nowhere today and volume was extremely low. Traditional technical analysis sees low volume rallies as an ominous sign (“volume must confirm price”, “air is getting thin at the top”, etc)
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
Stock Market Mixed Expectations, All Eyes on Tomorrow’s Jobs Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks slightly extended their short-term uptrend on Wednesday, as investors’ sentiment remained bullish following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index was the highest since the early October yesterday, but it closed just 0.2% higher. So will the uptrend continue?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.2-0.6% on Wednesday, slightly extending their short-term uptrend once again, as investors’ sentiment remained bullish following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2%. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 2.3% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,890-2,900, marked by some early October local highs. The next resistance level is at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,860-2,865, marked by some recent local lows. The next support level remains at 2,835-2,845, marked by the Monday’s daily gap up of 2,836.03-2,848.63.
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
Why Are The Markets Ignoring The US Treasury Yield Curve Inversion? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research continues to support a Bullish price bias over the next 30+ days, very likely reaching to new all-time highs again, before June/July 2019. For many months, other researchers have continued to predict “doom and gloom” with warnings of Treasury yield inversions, global collapse events, and other crisis events. Yes, we believe continued price rotation will drive future price swings and they could be volatile moves – yet we believe any crisis event will actually become an incredible opportunity for long traders to BUY into the markets at extreme lows.
Recently, our researchers focused on OIL and the Transportation Index as key elements suggesting this upside move is far from over. Oil has moved from below $55 ppb to well above $60 ppb. We believe this move will continue higher to target the $64 ppb level were resistance is likely to be found. We do believe that some price rotation in Oil is likely to happen in the Summer months – when travel increases and Summer blend gas hits the markets. Winter has been uniquely difficult this year and the rise in Oil prices, where OPEC and foreign market events have attempted to push prices above $50 ppb, is warranted given global economic activities.
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
Enjoy the Stocks Rally While It Lasts, But Don’t Be Fooled About What’s Coming Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Central Banks have created the single most dangerous environment possible…
That is the environment in which the economy is weakening, but investors are pouring into risk assets based on hopes that Central Banks will engage in more stimulus.
This is precisely what happened in the late ‘90s as well as in late 2007-early 2008.
Will the outcome be different this time?
In the near-term, traders will gun the market to new all-time highs. We’re too close for them not to. And until institutions start selling in droves again, we’re in a “trader’s games” market.
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Tuesday, April 02, 2019
Waiting for the Russell 2000 to Confirm The Next Big Stock Market Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
While we have recently suggested the US stock market is poised for further upside price activity with a moderately strong upside price “bias”, our researchers continue to believe the US stock markets will not break out to the upside until the Russell 2000 breaks the current price channel, Bull Flag, formation. Even though the US stock markets open with a gap higher this week, skilled traders must pay attention to how the Mid-Caps and the Russell 2000 are moving throughout this move.
Monday, April 01, 2019
Can Stock Market See an Encore Performance to Q1? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
After performance results for the record books in the first quarter of 2019, the stock market is entering a very challenging period in April.
To be sure, the success and presumed benefit from a US-China Trade Deal remains a big economic and geopolitical carrot stick for the markets in the days ahead. How much of the anticipated trade deal dividend already has been discounted by the impressive Q1 gains is anyone’s guess at this point. Certainly, both the adjustment of the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and the prospect of renewed growth once the trade dispute is resolved combined to support the market during Q1.
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Monday, April 01, 2019
Stock Market Is Stunned By The Bond Rally - But It Has Higher To Go / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
One of my members laughingly posted an article in our chatroom entitled "Riding the Bond Rally No One Saw Coming." Were you one of the many who did not see this rally coming? The point my member was trying to make was that while we were preparing for this rally since October of 2018, it seems most of the market was surprised by the rally.
Before I address how we have handled the bond market in 2018 and 2019, let me take you back through the last 3 years within the bond market.
As the bond market rallied on for decades, one analyst after another attempted to “call the top.” Yet, the bond market continued higher and higher.
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Monday, April 01, 2019
Stock Market Congestion Top Forming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 appears to be decelerating and forming a top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...