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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, September 28, 2018

Fed Quantitative Tightening is Stock Bull’s Death Knell / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented quantitative-tightening campaign is finally ramping to its full-steam speed in Q4.  That will destroy $50b per month of quantitative-easing money created out of thin air!  QT will need to maintain this terminal pace for over two years to meaningfully unwind the Fed’s grotesquely-bloated balance sheet.  This record tightening poses a dire threat to today’s QE-inflated overvalued stock markets.

This week traders are focused on the Fed’s 8th rate hike of this cycle, which was universally expected.  Ever since the FOMC’s previous meeting in early August, federal-funds futures have implied odds of another hike way up at 91% to 100% at this latest meeting.  But the Fed’s ongoing hiking pales in comparison with what it’s doing with its balance sheet.  One year after its birth, quantitative tightening is hitting full speed.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 28, 2018

The Russell 2000’s “inside month”. Ready for a Stock Market Christmas Present? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The Russell 2000 (small caps index) is on the verge of making a DOWN “inside month”. A DOWN “inside month” is when:

  1. The market goes down this month, AND…
  2. This month’s HIGH is below last month’s HIGH, while this months LOW is above last month’s LOW.
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Fed Hikes Interest Rates, Stocks Fall, Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks reversed their yesterday's intraday uptrend following the Fed's Rate Decision release. Will they continue lower today? Or was it just a quick downward correction before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.2-0.4% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to the FOMC's Interest Rate hike announcement. The S&P 500 index has reached the new record high of 2,940.91 on Friday. It currently trades 1.1% below that high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% yesterday.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Examining the Stock Market’s Late-cycle Behavior / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Troy_Bombardia

Lots of traders and investors have been talking about the U.S. stock market’s “late-cycle” behavior recently. I think a lot of them are missing the more important point.

Yes, we are certainly in the late innings of this bull market. HOWEVER, the bull market probably has 1 year left.

For example, Citadel’s Ken Griffin told Bloomberg that the bull market rally has AT LEAST 1.5 – 2 years left. Citadel is one of the few hedge funds that consistently outperforms.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 27, 2018

US & Global Markets Internals / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

To celebrate NFTRH’s 10 year anniversary (Friday, Sept. 28) I’d like to present one segment from this week’s report, NFTRH 518 each day until Friday. These excerpts will give you an idea of what it takes to provide a top tier, best of breed product. But there is much more to a single weekly report than will be shown here publicly. Oh and don’t forget the dynamic in-week market updates as events dictate.

All for 30% less per day than you spend on your single cup of small regular coffee at Dunkin Donuts! Think about that. I mean, I don’t want to downplay the importance of coffee – it makes NFTRH run – but what is the value of consistent, focused and proven market intelligence at your fingertips day to day, week to week and year after year?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Is the Stock Market’s Volatility about to Spike in October? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market’s volatility continues to be lacking recently.

VIX has completely collapsed, and is now trading sideways in a narrow range. You can see this via VIX’s narrow weekly Bollinger Bands.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Plunger

In the last two reports I developed the thesis that we are in the early stages of a post bubble contraction (PBC).  This contraction actually began in 2008 and is now reasserting itself in the form of a global liquidity crisis (GLC). In this edition I show how this thesis just received mainstream validation and it’s now time to begin developing an investment strategy.

The FED and central banks responded to the 2008 crisis by lowering rates to zero or less and injected trillions of credit into the system.  Indeed, they were able to re-inflate the pre-crisis bubble and put the contraction on hold, but only at the price of corrupting the core of money and credit itself and their actions exasperated the gap between the haves and the have nots.  QE in the end turned out simply to be monetary policy for the rich. The  result has been to start a world wide populist movement causing outside political contenders to win elections.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Sector Rotation Continues. Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

We’ve been looking at sector rotation quite a bit recently here at BullMarkets. Last week we mentioned that the Dow:Russell ratio (large cap vs. small caps) is about to cross above its 200 day moving average for the first time in a long time.

This means that the Dow is starting to outperform the Russell 2000 for the first time in a long time.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Lessons from Lehman's Collapse 10 Years After Failing / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Michael_Pento

Global financial services firm Lehman Brother’s stock was in free-fall during the first week of September 2008. After making huge bets in the mortgage securities space, Lehman’s President Dick Fuld feared bankruptcy and frantically sought out a buyer. The company was hopeful to strike a weekend deal with either Barclays PLC or Bank of America.

Nevertheless, Lehman’s outsized investments in the mortgage market ultimately proved them too risky a partner for anyone; and the giant investment bank went belly-up on September 15th.  Prior to this event, Lehman had reported record earnings every year from 2005 to 2007. The Street believed the company to be infallible. Analysts held on to hope until the bitter end. Their mantra went something like this, “nothing to see here, this is a small correction in a small section of the housing market that has little effect on the overall economy.”

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Focus on the Stock Market’s Price Action and Ignore the Failed Hindenburg Omen / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Our recent quantitative market studies have shown an interesting divergence:

  1. The U.S. stock market’s own price action suggests that the stock market will continue to rally for another year.
  2. Various studies of the stock market’s breadth have been bearish. They’ve pointed to a “bear market” or “big correction” very soon. Some of these have been the Hindenburg Omen.

So which of these 2 market studies is right? Which is more important? Price action or breadth?

As U.S. stock market investors and traders, our job is to separate the signal from the noise.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 24, 2018

Stock Market Macro/Macro View: Waves and Cycles Part II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week, I mainly discussed the coming economic crash and where we are in the cycles.  I also talked about the short term stock market cycles, which I believe have peaked as of Friday or will peak on Monday. In this segment, I will mainly talk about my short term work.

Due to the fact that the waves no longer move up in 5 wave sequences anymore, and the normal cycles are changing rapidly, I have had to augment my wave work with other data including astro-cycles and more technical data. This has forced me to buy other timing experts’ work to meld with my own so I can hone my timing skills better.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 24, 2018

DJIA Makes New High  / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend –  Breaking to a new high has only delayed the anticipated correction into mid-October; it has not eliminated its potential.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 24, 2018

The Stock Market Has Been Exceptionally Strong this September. What’s Next for Q4 2018 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

From a seasonality perspective, the U.S. stock market is weakest in September.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 23, 2018

US and Global Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and the ‘Anti-USD’ Trade / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The most recent leg of the US stock market rally and the bounces in global equities, commodities and precious metals are coming as part of an “anti-USD trade”. Certain US stock sectors, most global stock markets, commodities and precious metals were pressured by the USD rally that began in April and now, as the buck eases, a relief valve opens.

All charts below are as of Thursday’s close.

US – S&P 500

The S&P 500 – in essence a collection of sectors that are ‘pro’, ‘anti’ and ‘neutral’ the USD’s status – appears to be on the way to our target of 3000+, based on a conservative measurement of its daily chart pattern. This was the NFTRH alternate scenario after our expected summer drive to test the January top did not prove out a then favored view that the test would fail. As you can see, SPX broke out, dropped to test the breakout and off it goes. We have since been operating to the new favored plan.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Gerald Celente Warns Fed May Bring Down the Economy, Crash Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason

Coming up the one and only Gerald Celente joins me for another explosive interview on the state of the markets. Gerald tells us why he’s not only focused on the dollar but also oil and explains what is likely to happen if the Fed continues to hike interest rates. Don’t miss my conversation with the top trends forecaster in the world, Gerald Celente, coming up after this week’s market update.

Precious metals finally put together an across the board rally this week, led by platinum and palladium. The palladium market is surging 7.0% this week to a 7-month high at $1,054 per ounce. Platinum, meanwhile is putting together a 4.0% weekly advance – though prices still remain deeply depressed on a long-term basis at $831.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Top 3 Side Jobs for Day Traders / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

The financial markets present a lot of opportunities for investors and traders, but they are not without their challenges. Today’s market volatility means you have more opportunities to bank profits in the financial markets of your choice, but you also have more risks to manage.

If you are day trading, a volatile market means you have to spend a lot of time in front of the computer. Most of the time, what you do is spend time looking at market movements and waiting for the right signals to appear.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Two Scenarios for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Harry_Dent

The Trump rally into January 2018 looked like the classic final blow-off top.

It had been advancing in a clear channel, then it broke above that in a classic “overthrow” pattern, followed by a sharp correction.

Was that the beginning of the final and greatest crash?
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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 21, 2018

Elliott Wave Analysis of the SP-500 (SPX) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: WavePatternTraders

The advance from the April lows is currently the focus for us, as I believe the orthodox low for wave [4] was made in April 2018, so we are trying to count an impulse wave (5 wave advance). With the sub-divisions from the April lows, we can now suggest there are enough gyrations in place to warrant some caution for the current bullish trend from those April lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also confirmed the SPX idea and made a new all-time high, so that’s now aligned all 3 markets NDX, SPX and the DJIA with the same impulse wave idea from the 2016 lows.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 21, 2018

Dow Broke Out and Made a New All-time High! What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The Dow has lagged other indices most of the year, but is finally starting to outperform.

The Dow has now broken out to a new all-time high for the first time in 163 trading days.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 21, 2018

Are You Blind To What's Really Going On In The Market? / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory

By: Avi_Gilburt

In this article, I am going to do something a little different from my usual articles and start with my perspective on market direction, and then move into the issues I see in the market today.

I have long believed that we can see the 3000+ region before we get that 30% correction I have been looking for in the 2019-2020 time frame. And, as usually occurs, that market top will be accompanied by excessive bullishness among the masses. While many of the pundits have believed we will crash every week for years, the public seems to ignore them (appropriately) and have become much more bullish of late.

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