Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, January 10, 2010
Stock Market Indices Shrug Off Payrolls and Push to New Highs / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Back from the festive season break, traders pushed stock market indices to new highs for the rally, logging a full house of five up-days for the S&P 500 Index and pushing the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index - also referred to as the “fear gauge” of the US stock markets - down to levels last seen pre-Lehman in 2008.
Pundits shrugged off Friday’s unexpected decline in non-farm payrolls, as well as mixed economic data earlier in the week, focusing instead on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) communiqué for its December 15-16 meeting which maintained its “extended period” stance for easy monetary policy, i.e. more “juice” for risky assets.
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Sunday, January 10, 2010
Jobless Data Shock and Stocks Diamond Formation Signals Imminent Market Plunge / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The U.S. unexpectedly lost 85,000 jobs in December and revisions showed payrolls increased the prior month for the first time in almost two years, indicating improvement in the labor market will be halting. Payrolls decreased last month after a November gain of 4,000, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected no change in December employment. The jobless rate held at 10 percent.
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Sunday, January 10, 2010
Stock Market Holds Well...Earnings On Tap... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The market had every excuse on planet earth today to just fall out of bed. A very bad jobless report hit the street when there was a loss of 85,000 jobs. Expectations were for a loss of 10,000 jobs. The market didn't like the news initially as the futures took a pretty hard hit although not nearly as hard as I expected once the news actually came out. If the Dow futures had fallen one hundred points, I don't think there's a bull around who would have said that doesn't make sense.
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Sunday, January 10, 2010
Stock Market Final Trading Hour Price Action Study / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Once upon a midnight dreary, while I pondered, weak and weary,
Over many a quaint and curious volume of forgotten lore--
While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Is the Stock Market Rigged? / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
I received an interesting comment from my previous commentary, “Prospects for Economic Recovery in 2010.” The basis of my claim that 2010 will witness some economic recovery was the “6-9 Month Rule” of Dow Theory fame. Simply stated, this rule says that a 6-to-9 month stock market recovery that follows a market decline and economic recession bodes well for an economic turnaround.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 09, 2010
U.S. Dollar Against Stocks Correlation Still Exists / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
As you all know, there has been a tight correlation between the US Dollar Index and equities for the better part of 9 months. If the Dollar goes down, then equities go up. Even if there is a hint that the Dollar might go down - let's say, a bad employment report suggesting that the Fed will keep its foot on the monetary pedal even longer- stocks go up. We all have the drill down. The Fed throws us a biscuit, and we all stand up and bark!
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Friday, January 08, 2010
Bernanke Making Greenspans Financial Crisis Mess Worse / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2010
If there is one man in the nation's capitol who maybe isn't too unhappy about Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner being in the news today, it's probably Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who delivered a speech titled Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble over the weekend, a topic that continues to generate a lot of discussion at mid-week, little of it positive.
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Friday, January 08, 2010
Stock and Commodity Investors Profiting in "the whipsaw year" 2010 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
“The U.S. Economy faces a “significant chance” of contracting again after emerging from its worst recession since the 1930s, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.
“It’s not clear that the U.S. is recovering in a sustainable way,” Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor, told reporters in New York…He said the crisis of the past year was made worse by lax regulation that allowed some financial firms to grow so large that the system couldn’t handle a failure of any of them.”
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Friday, January 08, 2010
Could the Fed Be Manufacturing Another Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
A week ago, I wrote an essay titled Bonds, Not Stocks, Will be the Big Story in 2010. In it, I detailed how the US Treasury is now facing a debt spiral: a situation where it needs to issue roughly $150 billion of new debt per month WHILE rolling over TRILLIONS in existing debt at a time when investors are willing to lend to it for shorter and shorter periods of time.
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Friday, January 08, 2010
Stock Market Top? Gold to Rise? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Summary: For some weeks this analyst has been unwaveringly bearish flowing from the in-your-face disconnect between the weak underlying fundamentals of the US economy and the short term technical bullishness of the US equity markets. He has consistently argued that what we were witnessing was an upside bounce within a Primary Bear Market – aided and abetted by a Federal Reserve which some analysts have been arguing has been meddling in the markets via its plunge protection team. This view – that we are in a Primary Bear Market – is now being validated.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 08, 2010
Diamonds are not a Stock Trader’s Best Friend / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
As a follow-up on the Not-So-Orthodox Broadening Top, I would like to present the idea of yet another extension in the rally that may not be totally unexpected. The saying that, “The markets may remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” comes to mind as traders have thrown in the towel multiple times after expecting an end to this rally.
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Thursday, January 07, 2010
Money Sector Rotating...Not Leaving The Stock Market... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This is maybe the single most important aspect of what's been happening with the stock market. Take a moment to reflect on the past many months. For a very long time the bears could not understand why the market was holding up with the banks and the rest of the financial stocks doing so poorly. Day after day we saw major stock leaders in that area of the market losing its 50-day exponential moving average.
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Thursday, January 07, 2010
Bernanke, the Wonderful Wizard of USD, Forecasts 2010 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The same day President Richard Nixon closed the "gold window” Ron Paul entered politics. Dr. Paul has been fighting to end the Federal Reserve ever since - he has been supporting a bill to audit the Fed since 1976. In 2009 Congressman Ron Paul’s bill to audit the Fed was included in the Wall Street reform bill and passed by the House. Only the Senate* stands in front of Congressman Paul’s heroic battle to audit the secretive act of the central bank wizards.
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Thursday, January 07, 2010
The Chinese OBESSION with Video Games Offers Investment Opportunities 2010 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
My sister calls them Asian nerds. She is talking about some of our single Asian male friends who spend most of their spare time playing games, like golf and video games, instead of meeting girls.
My three boys have a little bit of that nerd in them, too. They are great kids, but one of the things that we regularly butt heads over is how much time they spend playing video games. They’d play all day long if I let them.
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Thursday, January 07, 2010
Emerging Market Investing 2010 in the Next 11 After BRIC / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
Everyone is making 2010 forecasts. So today I’ll jump on the bandwagon and share one of mine with you:
In 2010 you’ll hear a lot more about the “Next 11.”
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Thursday, January 07, 2010
Stock Market Lateral But Stable... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
And that's not to be diminished in its importance. You don't have to keep blasting higher all the time to say that things look good. The 60-minute time frame charts got very overbought again and thus it is no surprise that the market didn't rocket up today, but all in all the action was solid for some very important reasons I will discuss later in this report. We started out with a small move down today but it didn't take long for the churning to begin once the initial sellers did their deed. The Nasdaq sold hardest but that didn't stop the other indexes from hanging in there. In fact, the Nasdaq ended up down only 7 points, but when you consider how some of its leaders acted, it has to be considered a victory for the bulls. Bottom line is the market continues its basic lateral consolidation as the oscillators play up and unwind.
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Thursday, January 07, 2010
Dismal Decade My Assterisk, Stock Market Cycle Investing / Stock-Markets / Investing
From the end of 1999 through the end of 2009, all of the popular Wall Street market performance measurement tools were in the red. The average bloodletting level of the DJIA, the S & P 500, and the NASDAQ was a disturbing-to-some minus nineteen percent.
The Media has dubbed it "The Dismal Decade".
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Thursday, January 07, 2010
2010 Gathering Giant Economic and Financial Storm Clouds / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The year 2008 bore my mark as the year the system broke. A public article addressed the issues, laid out before the breakdown occurred in September of that year. The consequences for the many failures, the desperate nationalizations, the hasty scrambles to put financial sewage under USGovt ownership, the realization of TARP as a vast slush fund for illegitimate bank rescues, the official monetization plans put forth to prevent bond implosions, and much more occurred in the year 2009 as a recognized aftermath. Here we are in 2010 and the threats must again be laid out.
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Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Stock Market Outlook for 2010, Growth and Risk Appetite Returns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock markets in 2009 roared upward over 30%. This advance far outstripped fundamental valuations and expectations from many analysts and investors. The fuel for this rise can be largely attributed to the massive government stimulus program. But with the "march of money" anticipated to be removed in 2010, have the equity indexes recovered enough to climb higher without continued tax payer funding or is this run nothing more than a bear market bounce?
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Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Mutual Fund Cash Levels Do Not Support the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
As a group, mutual fund managers are as good a contrarian indicator for the stock market as they come. History shows that they hold relatively high cash levels at the beginning of a bull market. Then at the end of a bull market they don’t have much cash since they’re more or less fully invested.
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