Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 09, 2020
A Battle Of Titans: The Coronavirus Versus The Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Dan_Amerman
There is a potential global tragedy that is unfolding in terms of the coronavirus epidemic, that may be on the verge of becoming a global pandemic. We simply don't know - nobody knows - at this stage what the eventual impact and number of mortalities will be in the United States and in the rest of the world.
What we do know is that the global supply chain is getting hit very hard. There are many economists who believe that we are potentially on the verge of what could be called a coronavirus recession where a shutdown of the supply out of China, ripples through shutdowns in Japan and South Korea (among many other nations), which combine to hit the US and European economies with a supply side shock.
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Update - Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from (How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis) that seeks to conclude in a probable trend forecast for the unfolding Coronavirus stocks bear market that has caught most market participants by surprise, one where the formulaic mainstream financial press see's a bottom in EVERY BOUNCE! Well the Dow's latest plunge Friday makes a mockery of such expectations of barely a few trading days ago! For as I try and point out from time to time that technical analysis on it's own is NOT enough! Which is why I try and keep my antenna's focused on any outside market influencing factors that could drive stock prices at some point in the future where we have the usual drivers such as population growth, climate change, governments printing money that resulted in driving the Dow from a 1930's low of 40 to the recent high of 29,600. Without money printing there would be no exponential stocks bull market as the indices rotate in new rising corps and eject old dieing corps. Likewise, way back in January when most were shrugging their shoulders to "corona what?" my antenna was focused on what was taking place in Hubei China that was sending alarm bell rings despite art the time the Dow was was busy making a series of new all time highs.
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Market Fear Reaches A Level Seen Only 4 Times Since 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since 2009 the stock market has had for major waves of investor fear (volatility) take place which was in 2010, 2011, 2015, and 2018. Each time the market corrected we saw a drop anywhere from 12% – 18% and both traders and investors became emotional and started selling assets in fear of lower prices. What we are experiencing right now is the same sort of setup once again.
These waves of panic selling are a signature pattern of a mini-crash and they have similar outcomes each time which I will share with you here so you know what to expect and how to trade this rare market condition.
It takes a lot to convince the masses to reach this level of fear. Each of these mini-market crashes there has been some catalysts to further induce fear/selling. This time its Covid-19 that is tipping the scales.
Only two assets have acted as a safe haven which is bonds, and gold. Once again everyone has been piling into these over the past week, and even more so on Friday with Bonds surging 6.5% at one point during the session.
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Have We Seen The Peak In The Stock Market VIX? / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent price breakdown in the US stock market (near the end of February 2020) prompted a very big spike in the VIX – could we see another HUGE spike with a deeper price selloff in the near future?
Our researchers believe this first downside price rotation in the US stock market may be just the first downside move in what may become a “waterfall” price event where price declines in a series of downside price waves reaching an ultimate support level. The way the VIX works is to attempt to normalize implied volatility based on available options call and put data over a 30-day span. The process of normalizing this data attempt to eradicate outlier data from the equation. Thus, a VIX level of 40 has likely resulted in completed data that attempts to eliminate outlier data points that may have resulted in a much higher VIX value.
After this recent rally in the VIX level, the current normalization process will likely take the current range of the VIX (options data) into consideration for future VIX levels. Thus, in order for the VIX to reach levels above 40 again, a much bigger downside price move would have to take place – possibly pushing the SPY to levels near $260 or lower. A move like this would have to happen in an aggressive type of price decline in order for the VIX to rally back above 40. Is this something we should expect in the near future?
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Sunday, March 08, 2020
Dow Stock Market Crash Watch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
This is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks. But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study) Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections.
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Saturday, March 07, 2020
Markets Ignore FED Rate Cut: SPX Could Break 2600 with Force / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Mehabe
Dow Jones closes down almost 800 points, as investors worried the Fed's emergency cut won’t be enough to combat the economic impact of the coronavirus. US 10y yield drops <1% for first time.
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Friday, March 06, 2020
US Fed Panics – Stock Market Predictive Modeling Shows You What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
March 3, 2020: the US Fed issued an emergency rate cut of 0.50% to move rates to levels near 1.0% as a result of global economic concerns related to the spread of the Coronavirus and the potential damage it may do to the global major economies. President Trump had been suggesting the US Fed needed to be ahead of the risks associated with future market expectations to allow for increased liquidity and global economic function. Yet, we believe this move by the US Fed came at the wrong time for most investors and traders.
The global markets had already begun a process of revaluing risk in the markets near the end of February 2020. After the Q1 earnings data was digested and the newest Chinese data became available, investors suddenly understood the risks that we had been warning about for most of January and February. Suddenly, the US markets collapsed and traders were revaluing forward expectations.
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Thursday, March 05, 2020
Fed Coronavirus Reaction Was Not What Most Expected / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
Early Tuesday morning, I put out an update to our members of ElliottWaveTrader.net that noted that the 3135 region as the top of our resistance region, which can point us lower once struck.
Now, we all know that the “surprise” rate cut by the Fed should have been viewed as a positive to the market. In fact, most expected the Fed to act soon, and were certain how this would send the market soaring again.
However, I continue to reiterate that when the market is in a positive sentiment trend, the Fed action will always be viewed as positive. Yet, when the market is in a negative sentiment trend, the Fed will not likely be able to stem the tide of negative sentiment. They simply cannot change the sentiment of the market, despite the common misconception to the contrary.
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Thursday, March 05, 2020
See Market Opportunities in the Coronavirus Chaos - Here's How / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
The Fed has cut rates, but stocks barely noticed. And you may be getting particularly worried right now.
Our friends at Elliott Wave International would like to help -- free.
Their research shows that -- contrary to what everyone else thinks right now -- China's recent epidemic outbreaks have marked market bottoms, not tops.
In fact, they've just put together a free, on-demand webinar "Coronavirus: Opportunities in the Chaos" shows you the full evidence.
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Thursday, March 05, 2020
How Much More Can the Stock Bulls Add to Their Gains? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Stocks opened on a strong note yesterday, and the bulls have been adding to their gains throughout the day. Forcing a close above the nearest resistance, does it mark the end of selling? In other words, have we seen a lasting turnaround?
Let’s check the weekly chart for whether the current price action fits the bullish interpretation (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, March 04, 2020
Stock Market & Coronavirus Breakdown Metrics – Where’s The Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The end of February was brutal for traders that were not prepared for the breakdown in the US stock markets. The breakdown in price actually started on February 20th and 21st. Most traders didn’t pay attention to these minor downside price rotations in the Technology sector (NQ) and the Financial sector. The early downside price rotations in key sectors gave traders a bit of a warning that the markets were starting to shift away from the earnings-driven rally that had set up the recent peaks.
The other item that concerned the markets was the spread of the Corona Virus into Italy, Iran and other areas without known contact to areas of the virus origin. Obviously, there had to be some process of contact for the virus to spread – but there are concerns now that the virus could be active within various societies throughout the incubation period and spreading to people in densely populated cities in these areas. The idea of a “super spreader” event becomes very real if societies are not able to identify and contain the sources of these transmissions.
The fear that gripped the markets last week had been telegraphed for many weeks with the news and speculation that China and Asia were going to be hit with much weaker economic data in Q1 of 2020. Almost anyone with a bit of common sense should understand the economic complications associated with quarantining millions of people for well over 30+ days would destroy economic activity in China. Even environmental data (NASA) suggests the Chinese economic activity has collapsed in 2020.
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Wednesday, March 04, 2020
The Problem Is the Stock Market Bubble, Not the Pin / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Peter_Schiff
With the markets shell shocked by of the worst weeks on record, analysts are split on whether investors are simply overreacting to the coronavirus epidemic or if we are confronting an actual existential threat to the global economy. While most epidemiologists caution that the virus will be nearly impossible to contain, the good news is that it may be far LESS lethal than many of the contagions that we have comfortably lived with for years. When the panic and uncertainty subside, we may just end up with a new strain of influenza that will harass humanity seasonally, but will not meaningfully alter the course of global economics. But this is not really a story about a new biological disease, it's one about an old financial disease that is finally becoming symptomatic.
The truth is that the Dow at nearly 30,000 had been priced to perfection and was particularly vulnerable to any surprise "black swan" event, no matter how virulent. In this case, it's not the size of the pin that is causing the damage, but the size of the bubble the pin has pricked.
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Tuesday, March 03, 2020
As COVID-19 Rocks Markets, Uncertainty Rises in ASEAN / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the virus momentum is shifting from China to other countries, Southeast Asia faces new economic pressures and indirect collateral damage, due to outbreaks in Japan and South Korea, and inadequate international preparedness.Worldwide, the number of confirmed novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases could exceed 100,000 in a matter of week or so. The momentum of the outbreak has shifted, however.
In early February, I predicted a turnaround in the growth rate of new virus cases in China, but acceleration internationally. That's now the new normal. Until then, the cases in China were increasing exponentially. Now the momentum is increasingly outside China. In terms of the timeline, the number of confirmed cases outside China is now about the same as it was in the Chinese mainland about a month ago (Figure).
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Monday, March 02, 2020
Will Stocks Keep Cutting Through Supports Like a Hot Knife Through Butter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
During the first half of yesterday’s session, the bulls were in the driving seat after repelling sellers at the open. Yet again, their gains have evaporated, and stocks not only broke to new lows, but also closed there. Will today’s session be any different?
With the sizable daily volatility, it’s well worth checking the downswing on the weekly chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, March 02, 2020
Stock Market Post Bubble Contraction Finally Arrives / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Plunger
I would like to put out a quick special report to update you on the big picture in light of all of the market turmoil and provide some of the concepts which may suggest where we are going from here.
First off I you were reading these reports in the late summer of 2018 I put out a 3-part series on the Post Bubble Contraction (PBC). Well the PBC has now arrived. Of course it was virtually impossible to predict when it would finally get triggered since it was the FED fueling the bubble for as long as they could. But it appears the bubble has finally been pricked by a black swan from left field.
The below concepts you have all heard from me before, but now we see them actually unfold, so let’s review them again.
The Stock Market Top is in…But the Bear Market actually began on December 14th 2018.
December 14th, 2018, according to Dow Theory Methodology, was the date that a bear market sell signal was triggered, announcing that we were now in a bear market. This valid signal only occurs in Phase III of a bull market. Since then, despite the wild blow off top to new Dow highs the sell signal was never reversed and remained valid. To reverse the signal would require the transports going to new highs along with the Dow. Since this never occurred the signal remained in affect.
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Monday, March 02, 2020
Stock Market 20-week Cycle Low ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend from the 2009 low continues.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction underway
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Monday, March 02, 2020
Stock Market Dow, Three Strikes and your Out! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
The Dow has topped out with major events, the current virs could be the third strike!
2001 - 9/11 Twin Towers
2007 - Bear Sterns
2020 (?) - C19 Virus
Chart explains all. Dow Jones Industrial's comparing market tops 2000, 2007 and 2020.
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Saturday, February 29, 2020
Dow Stock Market Coronavirus Trend Forecast Conclusion - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market that had been an state of denial for several weeks has FINALLY woken up to the reality of the CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC STORM that has triggered a series of waterfall drops this weeks, slicing through technical support levels as though they did not exist, catching most market commentators completely by surprise who had assumed that the virus would remain largely within China's borders. However, my Coronavirus analysis in a series of articles and videos starting late January increasingly warned to expect severe market consequences in response to the unfolding Global Pandemic.
This video is part 4 of a series of analysis that warned of the increasing probability for a Coronavirus stocks bear market that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020?. Which illustrates that the key driver for the stock market trend for much of 2020 is not going to be fundamental, or technical but rather VIRAL!.
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Saturday, February 29, 2020
Is This A Repeat of February 2018 Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Back in early 2018, after a dramatic rally in early January 2018, the US stock market collapsed suddenly and violently – falling nearly 12% in a matter of just 9 trading days. Our researchers asked the question, is the current collapse similar to this type of move and could we expect a sudden market bottom to setup?
Although there are similarities between the setups of these two events, our researchers believe there are two unique differences between the selloff in 2018 and the current selloff. We’ll attempt to cover these components and setups in detail.
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Saturday, February 29, 2020
Stock Market Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market that had been an state of denial for several weeks has FINALLY woken up to the reality of the CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC STORM that has triggered a series of waterfall drops this weeks, slicing through technical support levels as though they did not exist, catching most market commentators completely by surprise who had assumed that the virus would remain largely within China's borders. However, my Coronavirus analysis in a series of articles and videos starting late January increasingly warned to expect severe market consequences in response to the unfolding Global Pandemic.
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