Monday, November 19, 2018
Calls Intensify for Halting Interest Rate Hikes / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
President Donald Trump isn’t thrilled about Jerome Powell’s stewardship of the dollar and interest rates. He would like the central bank’s help in keeping the economic party going, but so far the Fed Chair just won’t play ball. Now the Wall Street Journal has joined the President’s call for some renewed stimulus.
If officials at the Fed want to pause or even reverse course on raising interest rates, they have cover to do so. As yet, however, the consensus remains unshaken. The markets are counting on another rate hike following next month’s FOMC meeting.
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Monday, November 19, 2018
Gold & Silver Corrective Rally is Almost Over / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Strong words, aren’t they? And yet, we are not afraid to put them right in the title. The number of factors (and their importance) that point to a nearby reversal and continuation of the major decline is too significant to believe in the bullish case, even though gold, silver, and mining stocks moved higher in the last few days.
We emphasized it many times and we will continue to do so, as it’s very easy to forget about it when things get volatile on a day-to-day basis. The long-term signals are far more important than the short-term ones. In a fight, it’s not always the bigger guy (or gal) that has the advantage, but in certain circumstances it’s obvious that weight matters (please keep this picture in mind while reading about the possible counter-trend upswing in the short run – that’s the little guy while the big guy are the powerful long-term factors). That’s exactly the case with the weight and importance of long-term signals when comparing them to the short-term ones. Surely, we could get a 1-2% upswing, but so what, if a 15% decline is just around the corner? And in particular, if it could take place right away?
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Monday, November 19, 2018
Stock Market Going Sideways - Which Direction is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday's trading session was mixed, as investors continued to hesitate following the recent decline. The S&P 500 index extends its month-long fluctuations along the level of 2,700. Is this some medium-term bottoming pattern?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and +0.5% on Friday, extending their short-term fluctuations, as investors continued to hesitate following last week's sell-off. The S&P 500 index remains above 2,700 mark after bouncing off the support level on Wednesday-Thursday. The index was 11.5% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 three weeks ago. And now it trades 7.0% below the all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% on Friday.
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Monday, November 19, 2018
Technical Analysis Points to DOW 30k Next Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An incredible really/breakout pattern is setting up in the US Stock Market and US Indexes currently that many traders/investors may not be paying attention to. This is such an incredible opportunity for traders, we are alerting you to this setup and what we expect to be the outcome based on our proprietary predictive price modeling and analysis tools.
Almost without fail, the end of each year experiences a “Christmas Rally” that results in a moderate bullish price bias for most of the 4th quarter. Over the past 17 years, 76.47% of each Q4 period resulted in an average +1049.85 pts in the YM (Dow Futures Contract). Only 23.59% of the time did the YM decline on an average of about -1039.75 pts. This data helps us to understand that downside price rotation in the Q4 (Christmas Rally months) is possible, but unlikely by a 4:1 ratio. It also helps us to understand that our expectations of a massive price rally, much greater than the average +1049 pts, may be a very big play for traders.
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Monday, November 19, 2018
Will We See A 30% Stock Market Correction Due To A Trump Impeachment? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
If you've been following my analysis of the S&P 500 through the years, you know that we have called the stock market rather well. In fact, we called for the rally to 2100 in 2015, and then expected a pullback from 2100 to the 1800 region as we came into 2016. However, unlike most others at the time, we expected that pullback would set us up for a 40%+ rally in the overall index before we saw a 20-30% correction. In fact, we were calling for a “global melt-up” at the time.
And, for those that remember back to November of 2016, when everyone and their mother was certain the market was going to crash if Trump won the election, we staunchly stuck to our guns and noted that we expected the market to rally strongly “no matter who was elected to office.” And that is exactly what we got, despite the common expectation of a market crash if Trump was elected.
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Monday, November 19, 2018
The Power of the Dow Jones Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: readtheticker
Once again the data confirms cycles exists in the market. Value and other fundamental investors must concede cycles are in the stock market. [You can learn more about our Hurst Cycle tools here].
Previous Post Kitchin Cycle warned of market volatility
In the past this blog has posted the chart below, the Kitchin cycle or 900 periods, and you can see its success.
Monday, November 19, 2018
Stock Market Consolidating in a Downtrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish but correcting within that long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – bearish correction which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, November 19, 2018
Getting Your Cabin Bags on Board Budget Airlines - EasyJet, Manchester Airport / ConsumerWatch / Travel & Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
Budget airlines such as Ryan Air and EasyJet have become notorious for hitting their passengers with extra baggage fees as they try to board their flights at the Gate. Worse still is for those passengers who are forced to have their cabin bags literally thrown into the aircrafts hold because we all know that baggage handlers could not careless about what happens to the contents of peoples bags, thus resulting damage or worse.
So here is our comprehensive guide of what you should do to ensure you get ALL of your cabin bags on board with your on your flight, as well as a few hold luggage tips as we managed to get 6 cabin bags onto full flights to and from Turkey from Manchester Airport on board easyjet planes.
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Monday, November 19, 2018
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector (UKEER) Review / Personal_Finance / Reviews
By: HGR
It's SNOWING! With Christmas around the corner we have been on the hunt for various types of christmas lights to brighten up our home for the festive season. And this snow flurry projector sold by UKEER on Amazon for £29.99 (https://amzn.to/2BcpUu7) caught our attention as it appeared to offer a much wide coverage than the usual animated projectors.
Firstly the projector was delivered very quickly in about half the original estimated delivery time.
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Sunday, November 18, 2018
The Time to Prepare For the Next Financial Crisis is NOW / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Graham_Summers
Global growth is officially dead.
The markets picked up on this first, with Copper, Lumber, Industrial Metals and other economically sensitive asset classes collapsing starting in May.
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Sunday, November 18, 2018
Next Tory Leader, Prime Minister Forecast and Betting Market Odds / Politics / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain is counting down to a change of Prime Minister following the release of Theresa May's disastrous 'brexit deal' where nearly every British red line has been watered down towards nothing in what amounts to a 585 page suicide note that triggered Tory MP's to start sending letters to the party's 1922 committee where the requirement is for a minimum of 48 letters to trigger a leadership contest that will likely be announced sometime next week as I have covered at length in the following article and video.
Sunday, November 18, 2018
World Trade Organization At Risk / Politics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the past two years, the Trump administration has started trade wars against China, its major trade partners, and security allies. In the absence of united opposition by advanced and emerging economies, the next target will be the World Trade Organization.As the White House began to escalate the U.S.-Sino trade war last April, President Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro was asked on CNN whether the United States is planning to leave the World Trade Organization (WTO).
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Sunday, November 18, 2018
Musical Animated Christmas Projector Light Torch for Kids Review / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: HGR
With Christmas around the corner I've been on the hunt for various christmas lights to brighten up our home. And this animated flash light sold on Amazon for £19.99 (https://amzn.to/2Dv1fCz) caught my attention as it appeared to be a good one for the kids to play with in and out of the house.
Firstly the flashlight comes with 12 slides with most focused on christmas and halloween and I was delighted to have a couple on New Years and Birthdays.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
The Fed's Misleading Money Supply Measures / Interest-Rates / Money Supply
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The most robust national income determination model is the monetarist model. The course of the economy when measured in nominal terms is determined by the course taken by the money supply. Indeed, the positive relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and both nominal GDP and nominal aggregate demand growth is unambiguous and overwhelming.
So, just what is the measure of money that is most suited for taking the temperature of the economy and forecasting its course? Is a narrow metric, like the monetary base (M0), the best? Or, should we focus on broad money metrics, like M3 and M4? For national income determination, the more inclusive the metric, the better. Indeed, for the most complete and accurate picture, one should include all the important components of money supply, not just a few.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
Stock Market Outlook: Why the Economy is Bullish for Stocks Going into 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As we expected in last week’s market outlook, the U.S. stock market has pulled back after a hard bounce. The S&P 500 has now retraced more than 61.8% of its gains.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
NO DEAL HARD BrExit Tory Chaos, Theresa May Leadership Challenge / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain is likely counting down to towards the END of Theresa May's premiership who has been a walking disaster since Article 50 was triggered in March 2017, and who has likely DELIBERATELY WASTED the past 18 months in doing an exit deal with the EU Devil that effectively KEEPs the UK within the EU!, a deal where nearly every British red line has been watered down towards nothing in what amounts to a 585 page suicide note, one of virtually delivering Britain on a platter to the European Union Mafia which from the outset had sought to extract a heavy price from Britain such a Euro 50 billion divorce bill, free movement of people, Northern Ireland effectively split from the rest of the UK and over 500 pages more of similar poison, all in exchange for Britain to remain within a customs union for a few more years.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
Gold vs Several Key Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Let’s take an in-day snapshot of gold vs. several key competitors (for your investment dollars/euros/yen, etc.) and check the progress in turning the macro from risk ‘on’ to risk ‘off’, cyclical to counter-cyclical.
Gold/Commodities motors along above the SMA 200. The move has been hysterical, and thus looks impulsive. That could mean something as we look back in hindsight one day.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Q3 18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners’ stocks remain mired in universal bearishness, largely left for dead. They are just wrapping up their third-quarter earnings season, which proved challenging. Lower gold prices cut deeply into cash flows and profits, and production-growth struggles persisted. But these elite companies did hold the line on costs, portending soaring earnings as gold recovers. Their absurdly-cheap stock prices aren’t justified.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements at 45 days. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
Is Gold Under or Overpriced? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Have you heard about the Everything Bubble? Some analysts believe that after the dot-com bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s, we are in the middle of a price bubble in virtually all asset classes simultaneously caused by the Fed’s unusually easy monetary policy with ultra low interest rates. Although we agree that the US central bank maintained federal funds rate too low for too long, the narrative about a dangerous bubble inflating in a wide variety of countries, industries, and assets does not make sense. The bubble means that the price of an asset deviates from the fundamental value, increasing excessively, to a much greater extent than on other markets. It should be now clear that the existence of overvalued assets necessarily means that other assets are undervalued, so there can’t be the ‘everything bubble’. Sorry, but those who wait for the total asset apocalypse might be disappointed.
Friday, November 16, 2018
How APEC Can Boost Free Trade in Asia Pacific / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
Amid trade wars, the outcome of the APEC meeting matters. As globalization is at crossroads, trade in Asia today will shape world trade tomorrow.As the 21 member countries of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meet during the weekend in Papua New Guinea, there is an elevated international concern about the future of global trade amid the tide of nationalism and protectionism.
APEC member economies represent some 40% of global population, the region’s combined GDP is more than 60% of global GDP and it accounts for almost 50% of global trade in goods and services. What APEC leaders decide matters.
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