Friday, January 25, 2019
Gold Stocks Upleg Pauses / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have slumped in January, tilting sentiment back to bearish. This sector’s strong December upward momentum was checked by gold’s own upleg stalling out. Gold investment demand growth slowed on the blistering stock-market rally. But uplegs always flow and ebb, and this young gold-stock upleg merely paused. The gold miners’ gains will likely resume soon, rekindling bullish psychology.
Most investors and analysts track the gold-mining sector with its leading ETF, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. GDX was this sector’s pioneering ETF birthed in May 2006, creating a huge first-mover advantage that is insurmountable. This week GDX’s net assets of $9.9b were an incredible 56.7x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF! GDX dominates this space with little competition.
Back in early September, the gold stocks plunged to a major 2.6-year secular low per GDX. This sector suffered a brutal forced capitulation on cascading stop-loss selling, devastating sentiment. The triggering catalyst was gold getting pounded to its own major lows in mid-August on record futures short selling. At worst GDX fell to $17.57 on close, which was down an ugly 24.4% year-to-date. Most traders fled in disgust.
But major new uplegs are born in peak despair, and that was it. The gold stocks started recovering out of those fundamentally-absurd levels, gradually carving a solid upleg. By early January GDX had rallied 22.3% higher in 3.7 months, fueling more-optimistic sector sentiment. Plenty of speculators and investors including me were comparing 2019’s setup for gold stocks to the first half of 2016, a wildly-lucrative stretch.
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Friday, January 25, 2019
Will We See a Recession and a Rally in Gold in 2019 or 2020? / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We will see a recession and a rally in gold in 2019 or 2020. True or false? We invite you to read our today’s article about ‘recession in 2020’ narrative and find out what it all means for the gold market.
114 months. So long is the current US economic expansion. It officially started in June 2009, and if the country avoids recession until July 2019, the uptrend in the business cycle will exceed 120 months, becoming the longest expansion since at least 1857, when the NBER began recording economy.
Last year, we analyzed the popular claim that “the current expansion is so long, that it must end soon”. Surprisingly for us, we reached similar conclusions to Janet Yellen, who said once that expansions do not die of old age.
However, many analysts present more sophisticated arguments for the upcoming crisis. For example, Morgan Stanley has recently estimated the odds of recession in the US at 15 percent in 2019 and 30 percent in 2020. Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, has gone even further, putting the chances of a recession in the US within the next two years at about 50 percent.
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Friday, January 25, 2019
The Financial Secret Behind Germany’s Green Energy Revolution / Commodities / Renewable Energy
By: Ellen_Brown
The “Green New Deal” endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D.-N.Y., and more than 40 other House members has been criticized as imposing a too-heavy burden on the rich and upper-middle-class taxpayers who will have to pay for it. However, taxing the rich is not what the Green New Deal resolution proposes. It says funding would come primarily from certain public agencies, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and “a new public bank or system of regional and specialized public banks.”
Funding through the Federal Reserve may be controversial, but establishing a national public infrastructure and development bank should be a no-brainer. The real question is why we don’t already have one, as do China, Germany and other countries that are running circles around us in infrastructure development. Many European, Asian and Latin American countries have their own national development banks, as well as belong to bilateral or multinational development institutions that are jointly owned by multiple governments. Unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve, which considers itself “independent” of government, national development banks are wholly owned by their governments and carry out public development policies.
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Friday, January 25, 2019
Saudi Arabia Warns: We’ll Pump The World’s Very Last Barrel Of Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia isn’t buying the peak oil demand narrative.
OPEC’s largest producer continues to expect global oil demand to keep rising at least by 2040 and sees itself as the oil producer best equipped to continue meeting that demand, thanks to its very low production costs.
Saudi Arabia will be the one to pump the last barrel of oil in the world, but it doesn’t see the ‘last barrel of oil’ being pumped for decades and decades to come.
“I don’t see peak [oil] demand happening in 10 years or even by 2040,” Amin Nasser, president and chief executive officer of Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco told CNN Business’ Emerging Markets Editor John Defterios on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos this week.
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Friday, January 25, 2019
Will the Stock Market and U.S. Dollar Fall Together Soon? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the stock market stuck at its 50% fibonacci retracement, many traders are looking for a pullback/retest. While the Q4 2018 stock market decline coincided with a flat U.S. Dollar, there’s a high probability that the next pullback/retest will coincide with a falling U.S. Dollar.
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Friday, January 25, 2019
Sheffield Best Secondary Schools Trend Analysis 2018, GCSE Choices 2019 / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
It's that time of the year when Year 9 students will be trundling along with their parents to their schools GCSE Choices evenings, presentations of what subjects students could select for their GCSE studies in Year 10, and 11. Though in reality for most their won't be much of a choice as the choices forms appear to have been carefully designed to give the illusion of choice when in reality only a few will be offered real choice of subjects due to the fact that high demand courses such as Computer Science will tend to be heavily over subscribed and thus only a fraction of those who choose this will get what they want.
Anyway, here is our definitive answer to the question what are currently Sheffield's best secondary schools based on trend analysis which ranks the schools in terms of consistency of results, as results do tend to vary from year to year. The graph represents Sheffield's Top 18 secondary schools out of a total of 51 rated in terms of consistency in attaining high rankings in the school league tables from 2001 to 2018, for 5 A-C GCSE's from 2001 to 2016, since when available data has changed for most schools to measuring Attainment 8 Scores, so data has been normalised as a % of top scoring school so as to continue this trend series.
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
Currency War Combatant Capability Comparisons / Currencies / Currency War
By: Raymond_Matison
College football teams are broadly ranked by their strength so that a contest between teams may be both interesting to watch and be seen as fair. Accordingly, teams ranked being in Division One, only play other teams in the same division. In the Olympics, where fairness and sportsmanship are elevated, boxers, wrestlers, and weightlifters compete in their own specific weight class. It is immediately obvious that members of a lighter weight class have little chance of winning against someone in a heavier class. No such fairness or “sportsmanship” is extended in the contest over currencies.
Currency wars usually are clandestine, and information regarding their operations are usually difficult or impossible to confirm. As a result, anyone trying analyze or get information on such activities will quickly be stymied. However, one can infer from important market price information evidence related to currency wars. For example, if a country’s currency declines 20% or more over a short period of time, it is reasonable that some currency manipulation has occurred, and that it is the likely cause of the decline. A currency war is an act of war.
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
Electricity Prices on the Rise / Personal_Finance / Electricity
By: Dumitru_Midon
Electricity is not really something any of us can do without. Whether you have a tariff or a prepaid meter the money soon seems to go, and the media is continually reminding us that prices are going up. Consumers are feeling badly let down by Ofgem, the industry regulators who put a cap in place to ensure that variable tariffs could only rise to a certain point, and then moved the cap higher leaving people feeling frustrated and angry.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 24, 2019
If China Falls, so Will America / Economics / China US Conflict
By: John_Mauldin
The US and China are the world’s largest and second-largest economies.
They are also entwined in so many ways that it’s hard to tell where one ends and the other starts. Some call it “Chimerica.” which is an apt description.
But that’s not bad.
International trade promotes peace and prosperity for all. It’s not always smooth, evenly distributed, or free of issues. But such is the nature of great affairs.
Thursday, January 24, 2019
These Are the 3 Biggest Market Risks in 2019 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
A Federal Reserve policy mistake is our top risk this year.
Correction: The mistake is already happening. So that’s less a forecast and more a recognition of reality.
The Fed is raising rates and reversing its quantitative easing. At the same time! They should be doing one or the other, not both.
The media and investors focus on the rates. But as you’ll learn, the global balance sheet reduction may be even more harmful.
If Jerome Powell doesn’t realize this in early 2019—or the rest of the FOMC disagrees with him—2019 could get rocky, and very quickly.
Thursday, January 24, 2019
This Rally Is a Symptom of a Stocks Bear Market, Not a Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
BY ROBERT ROSS : “Did you see that the stock market had its best day ever today?”
That’s a quote from my mother.
It was the night of December 26. Earlier that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had surged over 1000 points.
Some people saw this as a sign that investor confidence had returned.
But big surges like this are common during bear markets. In fact, they happen more in bear markets than bull markets.
Thursday, January 24, 2019
If the Recent Sell-Off Spurred You to Buy Gold, You Have to Read This / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: John_Mauldin
BY ROBERT ROSS :
Gold has done well during the latest sell-off in the markets.
But it’s not surprising. Gold has always been seen as a safe haven. When the markets tumble, investors flock into this asset.
In the global financial crisis, the S&P 500 plunged 55.6% between October 2007 and March 2009:
Thursday, January 24, 2019
Trade Small, Win Often: The Dick Diamond Method of Trading for a Living / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Dear Investor,
We know -- and you know -- how frustrating it can be to find a reliable trading method.
Yet, somehow, 5% of all traders DO make money trading. What's their secret?
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have an answer.
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
KitKat Instant Holiday Win! "Make a Break for it" Promotion 2019 / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps
By: Anika_Walayat
This is a heads up on a NEW KitKat promotion that's just started, one where 10 holidays are up for grabs worth £8,000 each which can be instantly won by finding a golden ticket inside a packet. Additionally upto 100 getaway goodies can be won EVERY DAY by entering the codes found on the inside of wrappers. Watch the video for the full details of this likely not to miss promotion.
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
SelfTrade.co.uk Hits Shares ISA Investors with Quarterly Custody Fees / Personal_Finance / Investing 2019
By: N_Walayat
It's just got that bit harder for small stock investing customers of Selftrade.co.uk to make money investing.
Customers of Selftrade.co.uk who don't trade at least twice in a quarter (since April 2018) are being hit with a quarterly balance eroding custody fee of at least £17.99. Which might not sound like much but for small retail investors who tend to be invested in ISA's for the long-run its going to amount to a sizeable drain on their ISA accounts of at least £72 per year. And the charges would be even higher for those who hold SIPPS with Selftrade.co.uk
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
Sheffield B17 Bomber Crash 75th Anniversary Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 / Local / Sheffield
By: Anika_Walayat
2019 marks the 75th anniversary of the crash of a US B17 Flying Fortress bomber in Endcliffe Park, Sheffield on the 22nd of February 1944 costing the lives of the 10 member crew of the "Mi Amigo". In commemoration of which a fly past is planned to take place on the 22nd of February 2019 (weather permitting) that will include an F15 fighter jet from RAF Lakenheath, other aircraft to include Ospreys, Typhoons and a Dakota. Whilst an official time for the fly past has yet to be announced, early indications are that it will take place at around 9am.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
BrExit War: Why REMAIN Would Win a 2nd EU Referrendum / Politics / BrExit
By: N_Walayat
Last week Britain's inept Prime Minister Theresa May who has stubbornly refused to do the right thing by resigning further lost what little power she had left by means of two House of Common Votes, first on her EU Exit deal on which Parliament delivered a humiliating defeat on Tuesday, losing by 230 votes (432 to 202) the largest defeat of a Government in Parliamentary history which was then followed with Wednesday's vote of confidence in her Government that only just managed to survive with the aid of 10 DUP MP's resulting in 325 to 306.
It should not come as much surprise that Parliament rejected May's deal which was nothing other than complete GARBAGE, one that gives the EU £39 billion for NOTHING in return! And then there is the 'backstop' or more accurately the 'backstab', a means by which to ensure that the UK can NEVER LEAVE the EU without the EU's permission!
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
The Power of Gold Diversification / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
As a member of the British parliament in 1999, Sir Peter Tapsell, who passed away this past August, argued vigorously to keep the government from selling off over half of the country’s gold reserves. Previously, in the 1980s, Tapsell had managed a gold bullion fund, “valued at many hundreds of millions of dollars for the Sultan of Brunei, Sir Omar Saifuddin” – at the time one of the single largest private gold hoards on Earth. Though his argument before the House of Commons failed to stop the sales, it goes down as one of the most eloquent appeals ever made on the merits of gold ownership for nation states and individuals alike.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Huge Backlog Could Trigger New Wave Of Shale Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the U.S. shale patch has skyrocketed by roughly 60 percent over the past two years. That leaves a rather large backlog that could add a wave of new supply, even if the pace of drilling begins to slow.
The backlog of DUCs has continued to swell, essentially uninterrupted, for more than two years. The total number of DUCs hit 8,723 in November 2018, up 287 from a month earlier. That figure is also up sharply from the 5,271 from the same month in 2016, a 60 percent increase. The EIA will release new monthly DUC data on January 22, which will detail figures for December.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Recession Signals - Daylight, Nighttime, And Cycles Of Risks And Opportunities / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
Numerous warning signals of a coming recession have appeared recently, and there have been rapid changes in bond prices, stock prices and Federal Reserve policies.
Yet, the stock market indexes are rising again, and the economic and financial fundamentals remain strong in many ways. Are the widespread fears of recession overblown?
In the search for answers, this analysis explores 164 years of economic history, and the 34 previous "night and day" iterations of recession and expansion. By studying the average expansion and recession, many insights can be gained in terms of what economies look like shortly before recession, and whether history shows that the current robust economic statistics are in fact a reliable argument against another recession starting within the next 1-2 years.
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