Friday, April 05, 2019

A Big Advantage: Knowing Where You Are In The Economic Cycle / Economics / Recession 2019

By: John_Mauldin

By Eric Basmajian : Geoffrey Moore, the father of leading indicators, once said that it is a big advantage just to know where you are in the economic cycle, let alone trying to forecast where it is going.

Most investors or analysts don't have a concrete way to define where we are in the cycle and use common but silly analogies to the inning of a baseball game to identify the current standing of the economy. I have even heard some analysts describe the economic cycle as being in "extra-innings." I understand this mentality but chuckle at the framework as it has become such a consensus saying that all media pundits seem to have an answer as to the inning of the game.

Friday, April 05, 2019

Boeing 737 MAX 8’s Problem Is Not Software / Companies / Airline Sector

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We had already been told that in the Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 crash which killed all 157 people on board, the 4-month old 737 MAX 8’s anti-stall software reengaged itself four times in 6 minutes as the pilots struggled to straighten the plane post-takeoff. In the end, the anti-stall software won and pushed the plane nose-down towards the earth. Now, Ethiopia -finally?!- released its report in the March 10 crash:

Minister of Transport Dagmawit Moges said that the crew of the Ethiopian Airlines flight from Addis Ababa to Nairobi on 10 March “performed all the procedures repeatedly provided by the manufacturer but were not able to control the aircraft.” As result, investigations have concluded that Boeing should be required to review the so-called manoeuvring characteristics augmentation system on its 737 Max aircraft before the jets are permitted to fly again, she said.

Friday, April 05, 2019

HDFC Bank Elliott Wave Cycle from 2009 Getting Mature / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: ElliottWaveForecast

HDFC Bank Limited (Housing Development Finance Corporation) is an Indian banking and financial services company headquartered in Mumbai, India. It has 88,253 permanent employees as of 31 March 2018 and has a presence in Bharain, Hong Kong and Dubai. HDFC Bank is India’s largest private sector lender by assets. It is the largest bank in India by market capitalization as of February 2016. It was ranked 69th in 2016 BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands

HDFC Bank structure of the rally from the all time low is taking the form of an Elliott Wave Impulse and today, we will present the Long-term and mid-term Elliott Wave Analysis of HDFC Bank and also look at the upside targets after it broke above July 2018 peak (2220). HDFC Bank is part of NSE

Friday, April 05, 2019

General Motors: The Price Action is Key for World Indices / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Most of the World Indices have ended the cycle from the post-2009 Financial crisis low. But still, there are few Indices which are due for another cycle higher. SPX and SPY are running in an Elliott Wave Impulse structure. We at Elliott Wave Forecast believe in the idea of combining other Financial Instruments and relate them with each other. Consequently, we combine also cycles to each other. As we do understand that most of the time the Financial Market works, as a whole.

Recently, we did a blog about the SPY showing the increased volatility.  We explained how the Index can be doing a new high and can turn lower in a higher degree wave (IV). The most significant low in most of the Indices is the 12/2018. Above from there, the price action seems to unfold as an Impulse.

Friday, April 05, 2019

Boeing Crisis Set to Aggravate as FBI Joins Investigations, But Stock Remains Resilient / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Summary

• The two Boeing crashes in late 2018 and March 2019 killed more than 300 people.
• FBI assisting Federal transportation authorities in investigations leading to the aircraft’s certification.
• Possible conflict of interest between FAA and Boeing management suspected.
• Europe and Canada say they are conducting their own reviews into Boeing’s changes to the inflight control systems.
• Boeing’s woes would be compounded and put pressure on the stock if airlines start cancelling pre-booked orders.
• Boeing stock resilient until now but could slump if prices break the recent lows of $363.

Thursday, April 04, 2019

The Stock Market is Eerily Quiet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market went nowhere today and volume was extremely low. Traditional technical analysis sees low volume rallies as an ominous sign (“volume must confirm price”, “air is getting thin at the top”, etc)

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Is 35/55/3/3/4 the Ultimate Investment Portfolio Today? / Portfolio / Investing 2019

By: Jared_Dillian

Lot of strong feelings on gold.

Some people think it has no utility. Other people have pretty reasoned arguments about how gold maintains purchasing power across the centuries.

It was in a bubble eight years ago that sucked a lot of people in. There were some sketchball commercials for gold on Fox News. The people who missed the bubble spent the next eight years mocking the people who got sucked into it.

(I got sucked into it.)

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Monthly Technical Analysis for Major Shares / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: Submissions

AAPL stock

Following a disappointing 2018 Q4, the Apple stock started to trend higher starting from January 3rd. The stock managed to rebound more than 25% from the lows and managed to overcome the key 184.89 resistance level, which had now become support.

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Stock Market Mixed Expectations, All Eyes on Tomorrow’s Jobs Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks slightly extended their short-term uptrend on Wednesday, as investors’ sentiment remained bullish following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index was the highest since the early October yesterday, but it closed just 0.2% higher. So will the uptrend continue?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.2-0.6% on Wednesday, slightly extending their short-term uptrend once again, as investors’ sentiment remained bullish following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2%. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 2.3% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% on Wednesday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,890-2,900, marked by some early October local highs. The next resistance level is at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,860-2,865, marked by some recent local lows. The next support level remains at 2,835-2,845, marked by the Monday’s daily gap up of 2,836.03-2,848.63.

Thursday, April 04, 2019

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In March, the World Gold Council released the newest edition of its Investment Update. What can we learn from the publication? Let’s examine the most recent history of Fed tightening and loosening with respect to its effect on gold prices.

Is Fed’s Dovish Turn Positive for Gold?

The WGC has recently published the new Investment Update about the effects of monetary policy on gold. The main finding is that, historically speaking, when the US monetary policy turns from being tight into a neutral stance, the price of the yellow metal increases, although this effect is not always immediate. Indeed, the gold’s reaction to the March Fed’s U-turn was initially rather muted, as the chart below shows.

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Gold and Silver Are Presenting A Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

While so many were getting so bullish of the metals market over the last few months, my work was telling me that we were not likely going to be seeing a major break out just yet. So, I have been waiting patiently for a good set up for another long trade.

But, during my wait, I have seen extremes in sentiment again. At the highs, the extremes were quite bullish. And, now, the fear is starting to creep back into the market.

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Why Are The Markets Ignoring The US Treasury Yield Curve Inversion? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research continues to support a Bullish price bias over the next 30+ days, very likely reaching to new all-time highs again, before June/July 2019.  For many months, other researchers have continued to predict “doom and gloom” with warnings of Treasury yield inversions, global collapse events, and other crisis events.  Yes, we believe continued price rotation will drive future price swings and they could be volatile moves – yet we believe any crisis event will actually become an incredible opportunity for long traders to BUY into the markets at extreme lows.

Recently, our researchers focused on OIL and the Transportation Index as key elements suggesting this upside move is far from over.  Oil has moved from below $55 ppb to well above $60 ppb.  We believe this move will continue higher to target the $64 ppb level were resistance is likely to be found.  We do believe that some price rotation in Oil is likely to happen in the Summer months – when travel increases and Summer blend gas hits the markets.  Winter has been uniquely difficult this year and the rise in Oil prices, where OPEC and foreign market events have attempted to push prices above $50 ppb, is warranted given global economic activities.

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Gold Market Confusion Reigns (Or What to Do When Nothing Makes Sense) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger discusses the pitfalls of market reversals and forecasting. As I reach end-of-week, end-of-month book-squaring, where all of my urgent e-mails and all of my myopic missives and all of my topical tweets are summarized in once terse and quite concise "Monthly P&L," I am astounded at the most recent example of how masterfully the Gold Cartel works in suckering investors into a false sense of comfort and misplaced complacency.

On March 25, just before noon, I sent out the chart of Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE) under the title of "New Idea," with the base case being a technical setup at the $14.00-14.10 level that was shaping up to be a pure, textbook break-out from three prior tops in this range dating back to October. I was buying the May $12 calls for $2.15 (50% position) on the assumption that, despite the "less-than-ideal"buy signal I got on March 6, there was a decent trade in this single stock idea, and a pretty easy shot to the $17-18 area.

I was so excited that I rang up my friend and superb technical analyst David Chapman, and asked, "Chappie, pull up Barrick and tell me if I am crazy. "To which he immediately said, "You are—I hate that stock!" However, after looking at the chart, he agreed that GOLD had indeed "broken out," and that it would surely imply a pop to the "$16, 17, 18"range without too much trouble. (He also said he wouldn't buy it "out of principle," making him both honorable and smart.)

Thursday, April 04, 2019

Enjoy the Stocks Rally While It Lasts, But Don’t Be Fooled About What’s Coming Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Central Banks have created the single most dangerous environment possible…

That is the environment in which the economy is weakening, but investors are pouring into risk assets based on hopes that Central Banks will engage in more stimulus.

This is precisely what happened in the late ‘90s as well as in late 2007-early 2008.

Will the outcome be different this time?

In the near-term, traders will gun the market to new all-time highs. We’re too close for them not to. And until institutions start selling in droves again, we’re in a “trader’s games” market.

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

“Safe” Stocks Are No Longer Safe in the Age of Disruption - Amazon Example / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Stephen_McBride

Imagine losing 20% of your nest egg in the market.

For many folks it’s just gut-wrenching. So investors often pay giant premiums to buy stocks they believe are “safe.”

You probably know that fast-growing stocks in exciting industries may be pricey. But boring, slow-growing stocks are often expensive, too—if they’re perceived as safe.

And while you might not realize it, there’s a good chance you’re paying through the nose to keep your money safe.

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Euro Dollar Price Bottoming Setup / Currencies / Euro

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Euro Futures chart is highlighting recent support and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems are suggesting that a current support zone may be setting up for a decent upside move to near 1.15.  Momentum has stalled to the downside after the Brexit kerfuffle.  It is our opinion that this move to near 1.125 will likely hold as support and prompt an upside price move towards the 1.15 price level.

Volatility within the ZE is normal and this type of price rotation appears to continue.  An upside bottom/base near 1.125 may prompt a larger upside price swing in the Euro Futures because it relates a “higher low” price formation following Fibonacci Price Theory.  This set would indicate that a “lower low” attempt has failed and would suggest that the Euro Futures price would now attempt a new Higher High (above 1.155).

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Trump Readies Shake-up of Fed Banking Cartel / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

Establishment journalists, establishment economists, and establishment politicians are freaking out. It seems they can’t cope with the prospect of an outspoken monetary reformer potentially becoming the next member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

President Donald Trump announced recently he would nominate longtime free-market advocate and close political ally Stephen Moore to a currently vacant seat at the Fed.

“Trump’s choice of former campaign adviser Stephen Moore to serve on the Federal Reserve Board is stirring misgivings among some bankers,” reports Politico.

“Economists are furious,” according to QZ. “The news has been met with a heady combination of derision, bafflement, and general hullaballoo, with Moore variously described as ‘a loyalist, not an expert’.”

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Avoid This Dividend Trap That Can Cut Your Portfolio in Half / Companies / Dividends

By: John_Mauldin

By Robert Ross : In its last meeting, the Fed made it clear it would keep interests rates low for a while.

That’s good news for dividend investors.

You see, when interest rates are low, so are government bond yields.

That forces income investors to look for higher yields elsewhere. And history shows that many will flock into dividend stocks.

But in the search for higher yields, many investors fall prey to what I call the “dividend trap.”

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum Relative Strength Ratios Hit Rare Extremes / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

It’s possible last week’s cascading selling rout in palladium ended its multi-year bull market. The formerly white-hot metal lost more than $200/oz (but is beginning to rebound).

For now, however, palladium prices remain in a long-term uptrend above the bullishly aligned 20-week and 50-week moving averages – and physical supply remains tight.

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Cash Usage Down, Gold Correspondingly Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In February, the World Gold Council released the newest edition of Gold Investor. What can we learn from the report? Let’s discuss gold’s role in the onslaught of the cashless society, its role as a portfolio diversifier, reverse asset and source of liquidity.

Rogoff Wants Cashless Society, but Appreciates Gold

As a lot has happened recently, we didn’t have time to analyze the latest Gold Investor edition. Let’s do it today, starting with the cover article about Rogoff’s call for cashless society!