Friday, May 15, 2020

Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good / Companies / Coronavirus Depression

By: Stephen_McBride

From No. 1. to BANKRUPT. In less than two years.

My uncle used to be a chef in Australia’s top restaurant, Banc. The place was always packed. Regular customers included media mogul Rupert Murdoch and former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev.

And it was run by top Irish chef Liam Tomlin. Lots of Banc’s customers were international businessfolk in town for work. And this was the place to go if you wanted to impress clients.

But then disaster struck. After the September 11 terrorist attacks, air travel ground to a halt. Banc went from Australia’s most-exclusive restaurant, to bankrupt in less than two years.

Friday, May 15, 2020

Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical expert Clive Maund explains why he believes gold and silver are powering up for a stratospheric advance.

The deflation and depression is right here, right now, and if you don't believe that, try asking some of the 30 million people who just lost their jobs in the U.S., or those who (used to) work in the catering and tourism industries.

The Federal Reserve is reacting to this situation by working to create hyperinflation, because it finds it preferable to a deflationary implosion. There are two reasons for this. One is that it enables the Fed to continue to fulfill its time-honored role, which is to transfer wealth from the rest of society to the 1%, and the other is it defers complete systemic collapse for a little longer.

The Fed has created a staggering amount of new money since this crisis started a few months ago to feed the debt monster. Its balance sheet has gone exponential and is expanding vertically, guaranteeing hyperinflation, which will begin the moment the velocity of money starts to pick up. Currently there is no velocity of money because the economy is dead, but if you print enough money to throw at it, as in countless trillions, you can get things moving again.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund explains why he's bullish on silver. The way you see silver now depends on whether you see a glass that is half empty or half full. If you are a pessimist by nature you will be grumbling about its underperformance relative to gold up to this point, but if you are an optimist, as we certainly are with regards to silver, you will see it as maintaining the opportunity to pick it up cheap before it really takes off higher in a big way, which as we will now proceed to see is a fast growing probability.

We have been wary of silver and silver investments in the recent past with good reason, because if another deflationary downwave hit, silver was in position to get really beaten back down into the dust, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. After being smashed in March when the stock market tanked, it staged a recovery, but started looking decidedly timorous as it approached a zone of heavy resistance in April and its unfavorably aligned moving averages. It was set up to take another severe beating in the event of the stock market tipping into another downwave, especially as it has been forced gradually lower by its falling 50-day moving average over the past several weeks.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Submissions

After flirting with the 10k level, bitcoin has retraced to find support around $8,700 as the long-awaited halving event passes.

This milestone sees the block reward sliced in half, effectively acting as a supply shock by reducing the profits of miners by 50% and halving the amount of new bitcoin that enters the network.

With central banks embarking on massive money printing operations to tide over stalled economies, this event makes bitcoin look increasingly attractive as a deflationary asset — and this is reflected by the increased presence of institutions.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

April job report shows a terrible US labor market. Coronavirus destroyed 20.5 million jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to almost 15 percent. How far does the number reflect reality – and what does it actually mean for the gold market?

Apocalypse in the US Labor Market
14.7 percent. Remember this value well, as it will go down in history. This is the official US unemployment rate for April calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate soared from 3.5 percent in February and 4.4 percent in March. As the chart below shows, the spike is really historic, as such high level has not been seen in modern history.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

The US Dollar or Silver: Place Your Bet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Over the last 50 years there have virtually been no significant Silver rallies during a period when the US Dollar index has been rising.

If you are betting on a massive Silver rally while US dollar strength continues, then you have a very low probability of success. Similarly, if you bet on a massive Silver rally while the US dollar continues a long decline, then you have a great chance of success.

So, for the Silver investor, what the US Dollar index might do over the coming years, is a very important question to answer. No surprise here, since the US dollar has been 100% debased (of Silver).

Thursday, May 14, 2020

The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities / Politics / Pandemic

By: Dan_Steinbock

As China’s economy is rebounding, the belated COVID-19 mobilization in the United States and Europe has resulted in huge human and economic damage. New policy plunders could make the situation much worse globally.

My new report, “The Tragedy of Missed Opportunities,” focuses on the huge COVID-19 human costs and economic damage. Released by a global think-tank, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), it identifies the missed opportunities in the virus battle and its consequent human and economic costs " [link and here].

In the United States, the Trump administration's futile effort to “protect the economy” (read: the markets) has had disastrous repercussions. Yet, the White House continues to suppress science-based medical policies.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

I think there has been more hair torn out in frustration during this rally off the 2200SPX region lows than at almost any other time in market history. The frustration in trying to understand this market is ubiquitous.

As the unemployment numbers get worse and worse, the market continues to rally higher and higher. In fact, the futures rallied 70 points off the overnight low struck on Wednesday night even after the negative employment data was announced Thursday morning, and then rallied another 60 points off the overnight low struck on Thursday night despite the worst employment report in history being presented on Friday morning.

As I continue to peruse the Seeking Alpha public articles, I see more and more articles being published that tell everyone exactly what they already “know” as a certainty: We are setting up for a major crash in the market as we usher in the next Great Depression.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has identified a potential trade setup in QID that correlates to our ongoing analysis of the US stock market and our Advanced Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.  We believe a major price inflection point is setting up in the US stock market within the next 48 hours that may prompt a price trend reversal in the NASDAQ and other major US stock market indexes.  This pattern correlates to a much longer-term Head-n-Shoulders pattern that is also setting up in the SPY.

Our belief is that technical traders should wait for confirmation of this setup before entering any new trades, yet we believe we will have confirmation of this setup within 3 to 5 trading days – given the urgency of the setup with our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.  We believe a right-shoulder could be forming as the US stock markets push a bit higher in early trading this week. We believe the Fibonacci Price Acr’s are suggesting a major inflection point is preparing to disrupt price trends.

Just to be clear, this is a prediction, and as technical traders, we wait for confirmation before trading. This is the #1 issue with most traders. They jump the gun and buy into a trade idea before the price chart has confirmed and they lose a lot of money. Follow price, don’ try to lead it.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 'scientists' say that viruses are not alive. We'll for something that's 'technically' not alive it sure does behave like it is! Perhaps just as scientists will deem AI to be 'not alive' all the way until they take all of the jobs.

So lets leave the academic world behind, for their moronic obsession's has gotten us into this mess, certainties of solutions adopted by the likes of the UK and US to achieve 'herd immunity' when commonsense would have served our nations far better that of isolating and quarantining all those even suspected of being infected! Such as every flight entering the UK from virus infested China during January and February.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: EWI

The world has been hearing a lot about "homes" in recent months, as in -- "stay there" to help halt the spread of COVID-19.

At the same time, the sales of those homes in the U.S. have seen a significant slowdown.

No doubt about it, the coronavirus has played a big role. Yet, a notable divergence was taking shape in the housing market long before the current pandemic.

Financial history shows that it's happened before.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

High Degree of Risk in Overvalued Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Christopher_Quigley

The markets continue to remain overvalued, with a high degree of risk. A quick recovery is priced into every major index and if this should prove incorrect, expect a serious correction. I anticipate October will be crunch time.

If earnings guidance indicates continued recessionary conditions (negative GDP growth) and if results in the American Presidential election results are too close to call, I reckon there will be a swift re-pricing of all equity and bond assets. Either way, I suggest investors be ready and prepared, come the third quarter, for all eventualities.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Inflation, Deflation, or Both? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: MoneyMetals

The forces of deflation and inflation continue to tug at the economy simultaneously.

The pressures on both sides are huge.

On the deflation side, jobs, industrial demand, and the small business lifeblood of communities are contracting at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile, trillions in credit card, auto, student loan, and mortgage debt that props up consumer spending and home values is at risk of imploding – and bringing markets down with it.

On the inflation side, the Federal Reserve is pumping more than $6 trillion into the financial system.

Meanwhile, all pretenses of needing to be fiscally responsible are being discarded in Washington as Congress pushes stimulus after stimulus with money it doesn’t technically have.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

As we noted in March while it was happening the sentiment environment became terror-stricken. Not fearful. Not over-bearish. Not even a contrarian extreme. Market sentiment was marked by full frontal terror as indicator after indicator (ref. Sentimentrader’s historic readings week after week) got slammed to epic over-bearish proportions.

Into the breach sprang the Treasury (i.e. taxpayer) backed Federal Reserve to the rescue. As the employment numbers come in at the tragic readings that we all saw coming the bears are out there beating a drum (ah, Twitter) about why it is not right, why the Fed cannot print a bull market, why the stock market is going to make new lows and why you should avoid stocks! They have been saying this since the terror-stricken days of March and they are still saying it now.

And do you know what? The rising risk profile that we have been noting for weeks will likely paint them as being right before too long. Imagine all those ‘man who predicted a new market crash now predicts… (blah blah blah)’ headlines that we will be subjected to as the paint-by-numbers media look to feed easy answers to the public later in the year and into 2021. The bears will probably be right but here’s the thing, they have not been right for nearly 2 months now.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

The Fed Now Owns All Markets / Politics / Market Manipulation

By: Michael_Pento

Since the Great Recession hit in 2008, central banks have been in the business of keeping insolvent governments from defaulting through the process of pegging borrowing costs near zero. These money printers are now in the practice of propping up corporations--even those of the junk and zombie variety--by ensuring their cost of funds bears absolutely zero relationship to the credit quality of the issuer. To be clear, central banks have been falsifying public and now private bond prices to historic and monumental degrees just as the intensity of issuances and insolvency deepens.

And now, the Fed is bailing out bankrupt consumers with helicopter money in the form of enhanced and extended unemployment, grants through the Payroll Protection Plan and direct UBI to consumers through the CARES Act Recovery Rebates clause. All together there has been about $2.8 trillion worth of deficit spending so far.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 / Personal_Finance / Gardening

By: Eliza_Walayat

Covid-19 may be continuing to rage in the UK but that's not stopping the plants coming alive. In this video 5 year old Eliza shows what our fruit trees look like in May 2020, and we have a lot of fruit trees growing in a relatively small spaces that includes various varieties of apple trees, Cherry, Kiwi's, Pears, Plums, Grapes and we even have Banana Trees growing!

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The recent volatility in most markets was really extreme, which means that it was easy to lose focus on the things that matter the most in case of the gold market. It was relatively easy to keep one’s focus as far as the fundamental outlook for gold is concerned – it’s quite obvious that the economies around the world are in deep trouble and that the various QEs and money-printing mechanisms are likely to be inflationary, which together is likely to result in stagflation – which gold loves.

On the other hand, it was easy to lose focus with regard to one of gold’s key short- and medium-term drivers – the USD Index. If the USD Index soars, then gold is likely to plunge in the short run, regardless of how favorable other fundamentals are.

Consequently, in today’s free article, we’ll discuss the situation in the USD Index, with emphasis on two key similarities.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

Friday’s key data point were the non-farm payrolls. Horrendous and coming in at minus 20,500K, they surprised on the upside. After their release, stocks continued adding to their overnight gains, closing at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our previous bullish points turned out correct, but the key question is how strong is this rally? Can it power through this key resistance that is reinforced by the early March bearish gap?

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: James_Quinn

“At some point, America’s short-term Crisis psychology will catch up to the long-term post-Unraveling fundamentals. This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on. Every slide in asset prices, employment, and production will give every generation cause to grow more alarmed.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

I’ve been writing articles about the Fourth Turning for over a decade and nothing has happened since its tumultuous onset in 2008, with the global financial collapse, created by the Federal Reserve and their Wall Street co-conspirator owners, that has not followed along the path described by Strauss and Howe in their 1997 book – The Fourth Turning.

Like molten lava bursting forth from a long dormant (80 years) volcano, the core elements of this Fourth Turning continue to flow along channels of distress, long ago built by bad decisions, corrupt politicians and the greed of bankers. The molten ingredients of this Crisis have been the central drivers since 2008 and this second major eruption is flowing along the same route. The core elements are debt, civic decay, and global disorder, just as Strauss & Howe anticipated over two decades ago.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Michael_J_Kosares

What it cannot do is cure the virus.  What it could do, however, according to a good many analysts, is act as an effective hedge against its economic consequences. Since the beginning of the year through April, the metal was up 11.73% during probably the worst period in economic history since the 1930s Great Depression. Below we chronicle what top experts have to say about gold in the year of the pandemic – its portfolio role, its qualities as a disaster hedge, and its price potential.