Wednesday, August 03, 2016
US Dollar Analysis And New Trading Opportunity / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Investor optimism in stocks is becoming more widespread. Last week’s NAAIM Exposure Index rose to 101, which is the highest level since December of 2013. The trading sentiment composite has moved to a “Sell Signal” and last week saw an 11 on the VIX. Excessive optimism is universal.
We are entering an interesting time of the year for investors. Is this stock market going to break out to the upside and rally to further new highs, or will this latest lull be followed by a painful reversal of fortune? Historically, the August/September timeframe is the “Danger Zone” for the stock market.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2016
Gold Sector - Is it time to Back up the Truck? – Mortgage the Farm? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Peter_Degraaf
Technical Analysis of the gold sector reveals a number of red flags, such as negative COT numbers and a mining sector that is at least temporarily overbought, having more than doubled since January. And yet…….
Sometimes a market that is overbought can remain that way for longer than anyone anticipated. Remember the ‘Dotcom’ bull market of the 1990s? It became overbought and kept on rising for many months.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2016
European Banking System on Verge of Collapse; 'No Confidence' in Italian Bank Rescue / Companies / Credit Crisis 2016
By: Mike_Shedlock
European bank shares are down for the second day following a last minute bailout package aimed at Italian banks one day before a stress test showed Monte dei Paschi would be insolvent in an adverse scenario.
The ECB's stress tests published on Friday showed Monte dei Paschi has a huge capital shortfall, with the bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of negative 2.44 percent.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2016
Gold Bullion – The Ultimate Monetary Solution / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Editors Note: We are happy to publish another interesting and thought provoking piece by one of our contributors David Bryan:
Astounding levels of debt in the western world in particular is the greatest financial, economic and monetary challenge facing the world today. To get debt under control is imperative. It could involve a short period when individuals legally opt to become debt free.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2016
Stock Market At Danger Zone / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices started the day off with a nasty drop, and kept dropping all day until midday when they reached my target zone at 4690 Nasdaq 100 and 2148 S&P 500, and then they rallied nicely, the Nasdaq 100 jumping about 35 points and the S&P 500 about 11-12 points. Near the end of the day, they backed off just a little, but ended up near the afternoon rally highs. Still, they closed down sharply on the day.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 90.74 at 18,313.77, about 65 points off the low. The S&P 500 was down 13.81 at 2157.03, 10 points off its low. The Nasdaq 100 was down 36.83 at 4719.21, 30 points off its low.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2016
BrExit House Prices Crash, Flat or Rally? UK Housing Market Affordability Crisis / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In the run up to the EU referendum the establishment REMAIN camp had peddled a perpetual year long story that UK house prices would collapse or crash if BrExit happened, as operation fear each month ramped up the threats of that which awaited a post Brexit Britain.
For instance George Osborne repeatedly issued doom warnings that likely contributed to his swift sacking by Theresa May
“If we leave the European Union there will be an immediate economic shock that will hit financial markets... That affects the value of people’s homes and the Treasury analysis shows that there would be a hit to the value of people’s homes by at least 10 per cent and up to 18 per cent." - George Osborne
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Wednesday, August 03, 2016
Why Trump’s Winning, Why the Establishment Wants Him Eliminated, and Why You Need Gold like Never Before / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we’ll hear from Michael Rivero of WhatReallyHappened.com. Michael gives us his uncensored opinions on the recently concluded political conventions, why he sees this as a crucial election for the future of our Republic, and why he views precious metals as a must-own asset for the tumultuous times ahead. Don’t miss another fantastic interview with Michael Rivero coming up after this week’s update.
Well, much to the dismay of Republicans and a great many Democrats, the Democratic National Committee formally put up Hillary Clinton to be the next President of the United States. Hillary’s coronation was met with boos, heckling, and walk outs by scores of rank and file Democrats. They believe, and with good reason, that their own party rigged the system on behalf of a crooked candidate.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2016
Stock Market August Heat / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
August is known for its heat and, for market participants, this August is expected to be extra-hot. Last Thursday marked the 11th straight day that SPX closed inside a 1% trading range, the first time this has ever happened. Regression to the mean tells us that a big surge in volatility is coming. Seasonality tells us that the month should end higher than it begins (which matches our Lindsay view of a Three Peaks and Domed House pattern).
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Tuesday, August 02, 2016
Stock Market Breakdown Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
A “measured” fractal may form a low at 2140.00-2145.00, then develop a bounce. However, the mid-Cycle support at 2122.54 and the 50-day Moving Average at 2112.88 may attract a lower decline toward that range.
Either way, SPX is setting up for its first bounce back to retest either sort-term resistance at 2162.08 or the trendline at 2165.00.
Many pros go short at that first pullback.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2016
Beware: Central Bankers are Driving Us into the Dirt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016
By: Harry_Dent
One of the major triggers I’ve been warning about is already happening, even before we understand and/or admit that we are in a recession. Zero Hedge just picked up on an article from Jeff Cox at CNBC.Global corporate debt now sits at a record $51 trillion and is poised to hit $75 trillion by 2020 – just four years away. If interest rates rise and the economy slows, it will be very hard for companies to roll these bonds over – and then we get what S&P Global Ratings is calling “Crexit.”
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Tuesday, August 02, 2016
What You Need to Know If You’re Exposed to Muni Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rodney_Johnson
The housing bust was awful, particularly in Florida and other “sand states.” As the economy slowed, consumers lost their jobs, and when they couldn’t pay their mortgages, they then lost their homes.
Even though that wrenching period happened almost a decade ago, it will live in our memories for years to come. I can recall much of the pain, but also other aspects of the moment. Some people were desperate for the relief that came their way; others were using it as cover to game the system.
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
China’s Property Bubble Showing Parallels to the Subprime Crisis / Housing-Market / China Housing Market
By: Harry_Dent
The menacing fury of economic triggers that began piling up after the Great Recession are only getting larger and we can’t do much but watch it unfold and stay alert.
I wrote about this in a letter late last year, but now here we are more than halfway through the year and it’s only getting worse. So much worse that the Chinese property bubble is now
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
You Can’t Eat Gold! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: DeviantInvestor
I read that I can’t eat gold as I munched on my 401(k) sandwich and guzzled my IRA wine, which tastes like a cheap Chardonnay. For a side dish I ate blanched twenty dollar bills and consumed a chocolate money market for dessert.
Yes, I am kidding.
The point is that simple statements such as “You can’t eat gold” are a useless DISTRACTION.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2016
Stock Market Sell Signals Made / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has broken down beneath 2159.07. It is on an aggressive sell signal.
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
Gold Futures Point towards a Continuation of the Bullish Spell / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
The price of gold appears set to continue on a bullish run with gold futures pointing to a near-term target of about $1,400 while the long-term target could see the prices rise to new multi-year highs in the range of $1,500-$1,600 an ounce.
Last week, FOMC took the more reasonable option of failing to announce another US interest rate hike despite a strong nonfarm payrolls figure of 287,000 new jobs compared to just 11,000 in June. "Job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May," the FOMC said in its post-meeting statement, adding that "On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months."
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
Gold Price Is Now On Its Way To All-Time Highs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Hubert_Moolman
I have compared the performance of the current gold bull market (since 2001) with the 70s one. Below is that comparison (chart from barchart.com):
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
How and Why Bernie Sanders Was Taken Out of the Running by the Financial Elites / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Jeff_Berwick
Most are unaware that we don’t live in a real democracy. In the US, in particular, Presidents aren’t elected, they are selected. It has been this way for centuries and was fully cemented, and never questioned again, after JFK was killed when he tried to stand up to the nefarious groups who control the system.
The people who control the US government are those who control the monetary and financial system (and the media and nearly everything else of importance). A key historical figure of these “elites” was Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild. He was purported to have said, more than two centuries ago, “Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes it’s laws.”
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Tuesday, August 02, 2016
Stock Market August Starts with a Bang! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices started the week and month off with a bang. The day started out with a big, strong rally to new highs on the Nasdaq 100, and new all-time highs on the S&P 500, tagging 2178. But that didn’t last long. They then plunged midday, got to pullback lows and session lows on the S&P 500, tried to rally mid-afternoon in a kind of choppy, bear-flag formation, and then pulled back in the last hour, only to bounce in the last thirty minutes, finishing mixed on the day.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2016
Economic Confidence Index Plunges while Stock Market Makes Record Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Gallup Poll has released an Economic Confidence Index which reflects the sentiment of Americans, as it pertains to the economy.
As the stock market makes new record highs and the housing “bubble” market soars, one would expect that the “average” American would be smiling from ear to ear. However, the chart below appears to present nothing but gloom and doom. The Gallup Polls results are dumbfounding the American public as to why this divergence has occurred. I feel we have touched upon a few points as to why this is occurring.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2016
The Yield Curve - 3 Big Stories Not Being Covered With Graham Mehl / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Andy_Sutton
It occurred to us as we were laying out the contents of this article that we should probably not assume certain things. This publication has a wide readership, from corporate CEOs to high school students. The former are looking for analysis, the latter to become educated. The topic we are going to tackle in this second installment is a complex one, so some introduction is in order. Therefore, this piece will consist of two parts: an opening introduction, a primer if you will, then the analysis will follow. If you are well-versed in interest rates, bonds, bond yields, and debt, you can probably skip the primer, although we’ve been surprised at the number of people who have subscribed to the misconceptions stated therein.