Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Another Atrocious Stock Market Week Going Out With A Bang / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Rubino

On days when lots of financial numbers are released, the normal pattern is for some to point one way and some another, giving everyone a little of what they want and overall presenting a reassuringly muddled picture of the economy.

Not today. A wave of economic stats flowed out of Washington, almost all of them terrible, while corporate news was, in some high-profile cases, shocking. Let's go to the highlight reel:

Friday, January 15, 2016

Major Stocks Bear Market Awakening / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Zeal_LLC

The US stock markets have suffered their worst early-year losses in history in young 2016, an ominous proof that a major trend change is underway.  The Fed’s new tightening cycle is already slaying recent years’ extraordinary easy-Fed-fueled stock-market levitation.  Unfortunately the only possible reckoning after such a record artificial stock boost is a long-overdue major bear market that is finally awakening.

Just a month ago, the stock markets looked radically different.  The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee that sets monetary policy mustered the courage to hike rates, ending exactly 7 years of a record zero-interest-rate policy.  Stock traders rejoiced, interpreting the first rate hike in 9.5 years as a sign the Fed had great confidence that the US economy was improving.  So they bid stocks higher that day.

Friday, January 15, 2016

VIX Asleep as Stock Market Weakness Escalates / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Ashraf_Laidi

One notable reason the VIX is trading at only half the level seen in August (53.0), a time when equity indices plunged near today's levels is related to market's absorption of risk versus macro negatives.

The China devaluation of August 24 came as a complete surprise to financial markets, which were neither ready for the PBOC's FX manoeuvres, nor prepared for the dangers of rapid decline in the currency of the world's biggest buyer of commodities as they are today.

Friday, January 15, 2016

A Huge Gap Down Awaits the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX appears to have crossed beneath its neckline and may be challenging its September 29 low at 1871.91. A fall beneath the August 24 low at 1867.01 may release a barrage of sell orders, driving the SPX to the final support level at 1820.66 made on October 15, 2014.

Whether intentional or not, this may trap a lot of bulls in a very dicey proposition. Hoping for a bottom today is not a viable strategy. Today’s outcome was amply suggested yesterday by the Hi-Lo Index, which closed very near the bottom of its range at -698.00.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Stocks Bear Market Gaining Momentum / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Christopher_Quigley

On the 15th. of December last we noted that the Dow Transports had given a re-confirmed bear signal and accordingly we advised caution. Since then the Dow Industrials have fallen 989 points (approx). The Industrials need to break the 15,750 level for a full bear market to be re-confirmed. Based on yesterday’s price action, in all probability, this will happen sooner rather than later. (Remember our initial Dow Theory sell signal was triggered January 2015).

Friday, January 15, 2016

Stock Market Flippity Flop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jesse

Stocks were in rally mode today, in an attempt to dampen fear and encourage confidence.

While they were most likely short term oversold, the 'rally' was all artifice, and had the feel of the kind of forced cheeriness in the big household during times of plague.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Brazillian Bovespa Stock Market Set To Rally / Stock-Markets / Brazil

By: Austin_Galt

The Brazillian stock index, the Bovespa, has generally been trading exactly as outlined back in May 2015 and I believe we now have the final low at hand with today's low of 38459.

Let's analyse the technicals using the daily and monthly charts.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Stock Market Retracement May be Winding Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The recent moves in SPX have added clarity to the Wave formation. On the left you can see the “best fit” of the Elliott Waves to the decline. The impulse ended at 1886.40, as originally proposed. The rest is a corrective retracement of that decline. Thus far, it has retraced 27.4% of the decline. It may go as high as the Wave [iv] peak at 1950.33, but may be finished already.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Stock Market Rally with No Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX completed a Wave (b) of [ii] at 1878.93. Wave (b)s are erratic and do not obey trendlines and necklines as a general rule. While this Wave (b) did break the neckline, it didn’t stay beneath due to the necessity of Wave (c) to finish the correction and relieve the oversold condition. So my anticipation of a pop this morning was correct, but not in the way I had anticipated.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Stock Market Analysts are Now Bearish... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The Head & Shoulders neckline has now been crossed. As soon as it is retested from beneath, we may see a much larger decline in speed and distance. There is a lot of open space between the neckline and the next support.

The analyst community have thrown in the towel, as ZeroHedge reports, “Something has definitely changed in the market: while for the past seven years (a period largely coincident with an easy, ZIRPing or QEing Fed) every day would be greeted with numerous research pieces, all urging traders to buy the dip, and to otherwise stay invested in stocks, now all the equity firms have turned their back on the S&P, and first Goldman, then JPM, then UBS, then every other equity trader has urged clients not only not to BTFD any more, but to STFR.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Market Forecasts 2016: An About-Face for the Fed and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Peter_Schiff

Synopsis: The Federal Reserve's December interest rate hike was actually the end of the Fed's tightening cycle that began with the first taper talk several years ago. The Fed will be forced to restart QE and lower interest rates again (maybe even into negative territory) when it becomes clear the US economy is sliding back into recession. When that happens, investors who have been selling gold on expectations of economic health will have to reverse their bets and begin buying as gold rallies.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

The Perils of "Buying the Dip" in U.S. Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: EWI

Legions of bargain hunters have suffered losses by buying stock market dips at the start of bear markets.

Making matters worse, they decimate their portfolios by continuing to buy all the way down, only to capitulate at the bottom.

This chart and commentary is from Elliott Wave International's April 2001 Financial Forecast:

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Stock Market More Downtrend Ahead Or Volatile Bottoming Action Before Rebound? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative long positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,840, and profit target at 1,990, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is now bullish, and our short-term outlook is bullish. However, our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bullish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bullish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Stock Market and the Mysterious Mr. VIX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

I must say that I continue to be amazed at how "CALM" things are in these equity markets in spite of the significant chart breakdowns that are now being seen in so many different sectors.

Look at how meager the move higher in the VIX has been especially compared to where it was back in August of last year during the "Flash Crash" that occurred back then.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Stock Market Losing S&P 500 Long-Term Up Trend Line....Sentiment Rocking Lower... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

So it wasn't the biggest break of all time, but for the first time in seven years we saw the S&P 500 close below the long-term, uptrend, weekly line. That level being approximately 1925. The loss on the S&P 500 keeps it in line with its fellow indexes in the small- and mid-cap stocks. They have led down and broke a week, or so, ago, but it's more important to see the biggest leader of them all, the S&P 500, break down. This should have turned the tide in the favor of the bears in a big way, but the key for them is to seize on the opportunity at hand, and take the bulls down even further to put some distance away from that rising trend line.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Stock Market DeFANGed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Rubino

Yesterday’s bulletproof stocks, led by the FANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google), are getting whacked today. Amazon is down 100 points from its high, 32 of those points coming today. Netflix is off by nearly 10%. Even Google, which really does seem bulletproof operationally, is down 3%.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Why This Stocks Bull Market is Destined to Run for Much Longer Than Most Envision / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market

By: Sol_Palha

"Every wall is a door." ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

The markets are not free; corrections end at arbitrary points. In other words, the top players decide when the markets will correct and how far they will drop and or rise. This is why we focus on the trend and not absolute price targets as almost all free market forces have been removed. However, some individuals are still fixated to the idea of exact points, as opposed to the idea of viewing strong pullbacks as buying opportunities. This kind of mentality is what led these individuals to miss out on this 7-year bull market, and they look back sorrowfully wishing they had jumped in. What they forget is that they were doing the same thing today as they were doing yesterday; this is the reason this market is likely to trade much higher than most expect. Yes, the outlook certainly does not look rosy right now, and things look dire right now, but this has always been the case. Look at a past previous market disaster and see if anything has changed. As soon as the markets started to pullback, the Doctors of Doom started to blow their trumpets. Fast forward and the financial markets have not ended. This article is a perfect example of how the Media does nothing but fan the flames.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

SPX May Complete Wave 2 this Morning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket is higher this morning, but the retracement appears to have been finished in the overnight futures. That means the potential pop this morning may not last. Whether it goes higher than yesterday morning’s high at 1947.30 is yet to be determined.

There was a brief retracement to 118.18 in the USD/JPY from its overnight low. However, this appears to be the work of the HFT computers which can turn on a dime.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

The Bearish Turn In The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Dent

Large-cap stocks opened this morning in the green, seeming to offer a little reprieve from an ultra-violent start to 2016. Small- and mid-caps weren’t so lucky. They’re continuing to rip through fresh new lows.

This has been the toughest bull market and bubble to call, as many leading indicators that we have used in the past simply don’t work since central banks hijacked the markets after 2008. But with these major divergences continuing to build, and after many years of the Fed’s zero-percent interest rates, it seems we’re finally coming close to the end.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Stock Market Investors Stay the Course! Which One? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Axel_Merk

Each time I hear someone suggest investors should ‘stay the course’ as markets tank, I fear such well-intentioned advice fails to adequately capture the predicament investors are in. Worse, the ‘stay the course’ mantra may set many investors up for failure.