Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, March 19, 2018

Do Stocks Bull Market Tops Need Breadth Divergences? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Despite what some bearish investors might say, the U.S. stock market’s breadth is IMPROVING right now. Here’s the NYSE’s Advance-Decline Cumulative Line. It is leading the S&P 500 higher.

Monday, March 19, 2018

Bonds, Inflation & the Market Amigos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Bonds segment of NFTRH 491 took a turn to tin foil territory to allow the letter writer to expose newer subscribers to his ideological views and thus, bias. #491 also got pretty talky on the precious metals as it did a thorough review of the sector’s status, with silver’s symmetry to 2016 a very key item. Hint: An ill-fated bounce like so many that have come after the 2016 top is not what we are looking for with the next rally, but it ain’t gonna be easy. You can check out this article for a good piece of the picture: Silver’s Equal and Opposite Symmetry to 2016 Indicates Future Sustainable Rally. On to the Bonds segment…

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Stock Market Bulls Last Stand? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2872 could nowcontinue until May-June.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Submissions

Buildadv writes: For stock market investors, the coming week is likely to see the Federal Reserve move back into focus, stealing the spotlight back, at least briefly, from worries about tariffs and political turmoil. The Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which will conclude Wednesday and is widely expected to deliver the first rate increase of 2018, will be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s first as chairman of the central bank, and investors will be eager to find out just how much he deviates from the legacy of Janet Yellen, whom he succeeded in early February.

While market participants have fully priced in a quarter-percentage point rate increase on Wednesday, investors will parse the wording of the accompanying statement and Powell’s subsequent news conference. According to Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, the U.S. economy is estimated to have expanded at a 1.8% clip during the first quarter of this year, which is twice the average rate for this period throughout the recovery. But higher rates are still likely to dent some industries that are seen as bond proxies, such as utilities, telecoms or consumer staples. These sectors have already been underperforming and may continue to do so for some time, according to Jaffee. Since the start of the year, telecoms, utilities and consumer staples are down between 4.5%-6.5%.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Strong Earnings Growth is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500’s earnings growth is projected to be very strong in 2018: mid-high teens (i.e. 15-18%). Growth tends to come down as the year goes on, but even then the earnings growth rate will still exceed 10% for this year.

This is the second year in a row in which the S&P 500’s earnings growth exceeded 10%. The S&P’s earnings growth in 2017 was 13.1%.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Forget the CPI, Inflation is Here. And the Markets Know It / Stock-Markets / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

The attempts to mask inflation are reaching truly ludicrous proportions.

Bloomberg reports that the “guts of the US CPI show key inflation weakest in years.”

What are the “guts?”

Housing rents… which the CPI claims are falling.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Stock Market Downward Pressure Mounting / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks extended their short-term losses on Wednesday, as they retraced most of last week's Friday's rally. The broad stock market failed to continue its rebound from February 9 low despite technology stocks reaching new record highs. Investors' sentiment worsened again following economic news, trade war fears. There are still two possible future scenarios. Or maybe three, but the third one is the worst.

The main U.S. stock market indexes extended their Tuesday's losses, as they closed 0.2-1.0% lower yesterday. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% following Tuesday's bounce off resistance level at 2,800. However, it remained at the support level of last Friday's daily gap up. It currently trades 4.6% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively weaker than the broad stock market, as it lost 1.0% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost just 0.2%.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

The Stock Market Trend is Your Friend ’til the Very End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

If you’ve been following me for any length of time you know I’ve been a major bull when it comes to the stock markets. The last two years were some of the best years to be a bull in one of the greatest bull markets of all time and I don’t say that lightly.

A little over a month ago we got our first correction of 12% in over two years on the SPX. Everyday the SPX would be up four or five points on the open, nothing major, and then move slowly higher in a non threatening way which made it fairly easy to stay on trend. Impulse moves like that are the easiest part to trade as the corrections, when they came, were very small of only 3% to 5%.

That all changed a little over a month ago when it was time for the stock markets to correct that two year impulse leg up. When it’s time to correct the markets don’t need an excuse they just do it and it usually comes out of nowhere. The initial leg down is usually the hardest followed by counter trend moves that eventually build out some type of pattern.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Eye Opening Stock Market Index, Volatility, Charts and Predictions / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Volatility setting up like 2014/2015, Get ready for some interesting range rotation and price swings.

Our recent research shows that the current US markets are setting up for what could become a very interesting price range rotation as well as increased volatility.  Our team of researchers at Technical Traders Ltd. have identified a number of key elements that appear to be in place similar to 2014/2015 where the market setup an initial deep price rotation, followed by a deeper price rotation only to end with an advanced price rally on the news that the US Fed would continue buying US debt.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Stock Market March Madness / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Denali_Guide

Who will survive the cuts, the semi's, the finals ? So where to begin?

So will the DOW top 26.6 K in any reasonable time frame, say before August?

Or in the other sectors, will we see copper, energy, cannabis, lithium, cobalt, graphite or energy give us a run? I'd have to say this is rather suspicious, averages running up but NOT topping their All Time Highs.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Will the Stock Market Make Another Correction this Year? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P made an 11.8% “small correction” from January – February 2018.

When the stock market begins and finishes a “small correction” in the first quarter (January-March) of a year, it ALWAYS makes another correction that year. Hence, we can expect that there will probably be another 6%+ “small correction” sometime later this year. The U.S. stock market will be much choppier in 2018 than in 2017. This is not a “goldilocks” year.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Stock Market Direction Is No Longer Important / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Raymond_Matison

In February of 2018 the financial dam welling up all asset prices sprang a leak, demonstrating to newer investors that markets can actually go down – a lot, and fast.  However, the FED’s derivative finger was quickly applied to plug up the hole, and financial waters again started to rise toward their previous level.  With a current change in Federal Reserve’s leadership and direction, we are likely to experience increased market volatility with attendant significant and frequent fluctuations in asset values.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Stock Market Crash is Underway and Cannot be Stopped! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Enda_Glynn

There was an intriguing headline on Bloomberg today,

Here it is;

Investors Hate Leverage Like It’s 2009, According to This Metric.

Heres the main chart of the blomberg pure leverage portfolio.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Stock Market Selloff Showed Gold Can Reduce Portfolio Risk  / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: GoldCore

– Recent stock market selloff showed gold can deliver returns and reduce portfolio risk
– Gold’s performance during stock market selloff was consistent with historical behaviour
– Gold up nearly 10% in last year but performance during recent selloff was short-lived
– The stronger the market pullback, the stronger gold’s rally
– WGC: ‘a good time for investors to consider including or adding gold as a strategic component to their portfolios.’
– Gold remains one of the best assets outperforming treasuries and corporate bonds

Monday, March 12, 2018

Has the Stock Market Rally Run Out of Steam? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

On Friday, SPX closed short of the upper Diagonal trendline near 2800.00. weekend, SPX futures rose to 2805.00, then backed away. It is possible that the futures completed the task of testing that trendline over the weekend.

ZeroHedge remarked, “The "goldilocks" mood that was unleashed after Friday's jobs report (high growth, low inflation) has spread around the globe, sending Asian and European markets higher as trade-war concerns took a back seat to economic optimism. The dollar slipped and Treasuries held strady even as the US Treasury prepares to sell $145 billion in debt today (including both 3Y and 10Y Paper), while most commodities fell.”

Monday, March 12, 2018

S&P 500 at 2,800 Again, Stock Market Breakout or Fakeout? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks rallied on Friday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected monthly Nonfarm Payrolls number release. The broad stock market retraced its late February move down, while technology stocks reached new record highs. Is this a new leg within multi-year bull market or still just retracement following late January - early February 12% sell-off? Let's take a look at possible future scenarios.

Friday's trading session was very bullish, as the main U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.7-1.8%. Investors' sentiment improved following better-than-expected monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation and it got close to the late February local high of 2,789.15. The index currently trades 3.0% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. Both Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.8% on Friday. The latter reached new record high, as it broke above 7,500 mark again.

Monday, March 12, 2018

What Happens Next When Stock Market Investor Sentiment is Neutral / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

AAII is the stock market’s best sentiment gauge. Investors are extremely Neutral right now because the stock market has been swinging back and forth over the past few weeks.

Monday, March 12, 2018

Just Another Minor Stock Market Pullback Within a Secular Advance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Donald_W_Dony

The retracement over the last few weeks has sparked many investors and market pundits to suspect that the bull market may be nearing a crest.

Most world indexes pulled back around 10 percent before finding support in late February and early March. And this was just after reaching new all-time highs in January.

Certainly not the kind of pattern that is associated with major tops in the markets.

Monday, March 12, 2018

Are The Stock Market Bears About To Fumble? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

Do you think we will ever see a week of market moves associated with news events for which you will not shake your head?

Week after week I think analysts say something so stupid that I just want to scream. As I have pointed out so many times over the years, I keep hoping that some form of sanity will grip pundits one day. I keep hoping that they may wake up and recognize the error of their ways. But, alas, I continue to long for that day.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Stock Market Uptrend Resuming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2872 could continue until mid-May, but is mostly behind us.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.