Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, July 13, 2018
Rising Inflation is Not Bearish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Inflation is on the rise. Yesterday’s CPI reading saw inflation rise 2.8% year-over-year.
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
Stocks Trying to Break Higher Again, Will They? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index retraced some of its recent advance yesterday, as investors reacted to overnight trade tariffs announcement. Is this a new downtrend? Or just a downward correction before another leg higher? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.
The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 0.6% and 0.9% on Wednesday, retracing some of their recent advance, as investors reacted to new trade tariffs announcement. The S&P 500 index has bounced off the resistance level of around 2,800. It currently trades 3.4% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.9% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6% on Wednesday.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Corporate Earnings Q2 2018 Will Probably be Strong. What This Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Earnings expectations for Q2 2018 are high. Analysts expect the S&P 500’s earnings to grow 20% year-over-year. This leaves some investors and traders “worried” that the bar has been set too high, setting up for a disappointment.
I think that this earnings season will be strong and continue to beat expectations.
Why?
Because companies (on balance) almost ALWAYS beat their earnings expectations.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
China, Asia and Emerging Markets Could Result In Chaos / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, quite a bit of news has been originating from Malaysia, China and other areas of South East Asia. Much of it is concerns with multi-billion dollar projects and excessive corruption and graft. Malaysia is taking the lead with this issue so far with the new Mahathir administration. Yet, we believe these issues are far-reaching and could result in quite a bit of market turmoil over the next few months – possibly much longer.
What is at risk is the exposure of “cooked books” across much of China, India and likely throughout the globe with infrastructure and real estate projects that were designed to boost numbers while hiding real economic concerns. You may remember we alerted our members and the general public to this concern in March 2018 – nearly 4 months ago in this blog post. If you have not read our multi-part research post regarding how China has set itself up for a massive economic collapse, please take a minute to read all of our earlier research.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Can the Stock Market Close Higher For a Record 10th Year in a Row? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 Total Return Index is slightly different than the S&P 500 Index in that it includes the dividend yield that companies throw off. Hence, the S&P 500’s Total Return Index tends to go up a little more than the S&P 500 each year.
As of the end of 2017, the S&P 500 Total Return Index has gone up 9 years in a row (2009 – 2017, inclusive). If the Total Return Index closes higher at the end of this year, it will set a new record for 10 years higher in a row.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Brad_Gudgeon
I know most are getting bulled up here, but I’m thinking we go lower into the 12th before rocketing higher in the stock market. Notice the 16 TD tops on the SPX on chart below!GDX and gold look lower into next week and perhaps the week after. Typically, the PM's have been finding bottoms in July and December, so a short term buying opportunity looks forthcoming perhaps into at least August, maybe September.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Why Trade Wars Are Really Good For The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
If you read most of the analysis being published over the last two days, you would almost assume that the S&P500 should be crashing or be in a bear market. Yet, we are only 4% off the all-time highs struck early this year in the S&P, whereas the Nasdaq and Russell have made new higher highs this summer.
In fact, if you had read the analysis put out over the last two days when further tariffs went into effect, you would have to assume that Friday should have been a major down day in the US markets. This is just an excerpt from a bearish author’s recent article on the US market:
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Are the Stock Market Bulls Starting to Run? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – In spite of recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 have to extendits corrective phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 08, 2018
Breadth is Leading the Stock Market Higher. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The NYSE’s Advance-Decline cumulative line is one of the best breadth indicators for the U.S. stock market. It adds the number of stocks that went up each day and subtracts the number of stocks that went down each day.
This is a long term leading indicator for the stock market.
The Advance-Decline cumulative line just made a new high even though the S&P 500 hasn’t. The Advance-Decline cumulative line hasn’t allowed the S&P’s pullbacks to push it down.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
The Stock Market’s “Turnover Bubble” Isn’t as Bad as it Sounds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Every time you hear words “speculative behavior” used to describe a bull market in stocks, you should sit back and look at the data carefully.
- “Speculative behavior” is mostly code for “the market has gone up a lot, I’ve missed out on a lot of its gains, and this is a bubble but I don’t know when it will top”. In other words, calling something “speculative behavior” is not useful for making trading decisions. Calling something “a bubble” tells you NOTHING about when the market will top.
- Nominal data always looks like “speculative behavior” because inflation causes numbers to go up in the long term.
Friday, July 06, 2018
Micron / China Holding Stock Markets Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just before the July 4th holiday, the US equity markets were about to rally above a defined wedge formation that has been defining price range for the past 7+ days. As the markets opened on July 3rd, prices had already started to rally and appeared to be ready to rocket higher by a decent amount. Yet, by early morning, news that China had banned Micron chip sales in a patent case caused the markets to reverse quite steadily. This news, as it relates to US chip manufacturers and a major part of the NASDAQ, creates a temporary speed bump in the perceived rally that we have been expecting for weeks.
The Technology sector makes up a very large component of the US major indexes. Other than the DOW, technology firms are spread across nearly every sector of the US major indexes and this case may have some reach to it. As the trade tariffs and trade issues continue to ramp up, these types of explosive news items can drive the markets up or down as the news hits. We consider these external factors that push the market one way or another while the core market dynamics may want to drive prices in another direction.
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Thursday, July 05, 2018
Stock Market Still No Clear Direction, But S&P 500 Remains Above 2,700 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
There were some positive expectations ahead of the opening of Tuesday's trading session, but then stocks reversed their intraday advance and closed lower. The broad stock market continues to trade within a short-term consolidation. Which direction is next? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.9% on Tuesday, as investors' sentiment worsened once again. The S&P 500 index continues to trade above the support level of 2,700. It is currently 5.5% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Tuesday.
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Thursday, July 05, 2018
Corporate Profits are Trending Higher. The Stocks Bull Market Isn’t Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As we’ve demonstrated here at BullMarkets before, the U.S. economy, corporate profits, and stock market all move in the same direction in the medium-long term.
The final reading for Q1 2018 GDP (released June 28, 2018) demonstrates that corporate profits are still rising. And for all the people who think that earnings numbers are “manipulated” via GAAP rules, these are corporate profits according to the IRS. Fact.
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Wednesday, July 04, 2018
Stock Index Support Zones In Play For Bigger Upside Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we start the July 4th trading week, it is time to look at the current market setup for signs of future strength or weakness. Yes, there is a lot of outside economic and geopolitical factors at play right now that could cause some major market moves, yet we continue to believe the US equities markets are setting up for another upside move after retesting support and shaking out some trades.
Recently, there has been quite a bit of chatter about foreign and US debt levels as well as credit cycle events that many industry leaders are concerned with. Overall, yes, we have to be cautious of a pricing level revaluation as a result of the credit cycles that are changing.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Stock Market Temporary Bottom Set-Up Needs Follow Through / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Submissions
By Ricky Wen : The last week of June was quite weak as the stock market continued the downward momentum from the 3rd week by grinding down into the major weekly trending support zone around 2700-2720 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) for the backtest.
After Monday's steep sell-off, the rest of the week was mostly consolidation within Monday’s range. The main takeaway from the week was that the market made a temporary bottom setup with the nominal lower low at around 2693 on the ES and back into the 2740 area resistance. It is now waiting for some follow through this week, or invalidation if that was not the low.
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Monday, July 02, 2018
Stock Market Negative Expectations, but.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks failed to continue their short-term rebound on Friday and they closed virtually flat. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term consolidation, as it remained above the level of 2,700 on the last trading day of the month and the quarter. But was it a bottoming pattern or just some flat correction before another leg lower? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.2% on Friday, as the investors hesitated following Thursday's rebound off support level. The S&P 500 index extended its week-long consolidation. It currently trades 5.3% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on the last trading day of the month and the quarter.
Monday, July 02, 2018
Stock Market Bucks “Sell in May and Go Away”. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As you probably already know, the stock market’s seasonality is bearish from May – September. That’s where the phrase “Sell in May and go Away” comes from.
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Monday, July 02, 2018
Stock Market Step Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Due to recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 may be extending its corrective phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 01, 2018
Stock Market Crash Even if China and the Trump Make Up? Currencies Think So / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Graham_Summers
As we noted earlier this week, China, tired of the “back and forth” with the Trump administration on trade negotiations, has resorted to devaluing the Yuan.
The goal here was to induce another sharp sell-off in stocks, similar to the ones induced by China’s August 2015 and January 2016 devaluations. By the way, those last two devaluations (red boxes) resulted in the S&P 500 dropping 11% and 12% in less than one week.
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Saturday, June 30, 2018
Stock Market’s Price Action Starting to Turn Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As always, the economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:
- The stock market’s long term is bullish.
- The stock market’s medium term is bullish.
- The stock market’s short term is turning bullish (with Trump’s trade war as a wild card)
Let’s go from the long term, to the medium term, to the short term.
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