Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
The Damage has been done to the Financial Markets as Volatility Soars and The Carry Trade Unwinds / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Christopher_Laird
Up to last week, people were saying the Dow and other major markets were ever rising, the VIX was at super low levels, risk pricing was way too low in all markets.
The Dow appeared to climb ever higher, super bearish writers and economists were questioning themselves about the stock markets that never seemed to drop, but just kept climbing ever higher. There was talk about the ever greater liquidity continually pouring money into financial markets. That is was/is true.
But that was then – a couple of weeks ago. Now, market sentiment everywhere has been badly shaken. The VIX rose an incredible 60% last week. Previously, its historically low levels indicated there was virtually no investor fear in the markets. In a very real sense, the damage has now been done, and financial markets of all types are like a seriously wounded aircraft carrier, listing badly and on fire. It still floats, but just barely. Just about anything can now finish it off.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
What the media isn't saying about China's Stock Market Plunge / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
The Shenzhen/Shanghai Index of 300 stocks fell 9.2% last Tuesday.
Why? Because the State Council, China's highest ruling body, said it started a special task force to clamp down on illegal share offerings and other banned activities. Investors were worried that the government's zeal could damage the whole stock market.
There's no question that 9.2% is a big single-day drop. However, just looking at that one day doesn't tell the whole story. In the previous six days, the same index had jumped 13%. That means that, despite the big drop, the index was still up 3.8% in seven trading days. I'd hardly call that a disaster.
Regardless, a parade of market watchers has been bad-mouthing Chinese stocks, blaming them for the Dow's plunge, and more. Today, I want to tell you some things that you're not hearing from these so-called experts.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
In depth Market Wrap - US Economy, Stocks, Bonds and Currencies - China Crisis / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
The Economy - The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product last quarter rose at a 2.2% annual rate. New home sales plunged, while orders for durable goods slid the most since October.
Personal Income was up 1.0%, while personal spending was up 0.5%. If the figures are correct, such is a good thing, as less was consumed then produced and earned, which allows for savings.
The ISM Manufacturing index was up 3 points to 52.3. Prices paid were up 6 points to 59. Production and new orders both increased by almost 5 points.
Confidence among U.S. consumers fell last month from a two-year high as fuel prices ate into personal income, and employment weakened.
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Monday, March 05, 2007
Stock Market Manipulation - The secret maneuverings of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Mike_Whitney
The Working Group on Financial Markets, also know as the Plunge Protection Team, was created by Ronald Reagan to prevent a repeat of the Wall Street meltdown of October 1987. Its members include the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the SEC and the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Recently, the team has been on high-alert given the increased volatility of the markets and, what Hank Paulson calls, "the systemic risk posed by hedge funds and derivatives.”Last Tuesday's 416 point drop in the stock market has sent tremors through global system. An 8% freefall on the Chinese stock exchange triggered a massive equities sell-off which continued sporadically throughout the week. The sudden shift in sentiment, from Bull to Bear, has drawn more attention to deeply rooted “systemic” problems in the US economy. US manufacturing is already in recession, the dollar continues to weaken, consumer spending is flat, and the sub-prime market in real estate has begun to nosedive. These have all contributed to the markets' erratic behavior and created the likelihood that the Plunge Protection Team may be stealthily intervening behind the scenes.
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Monday, March 05, 2007
Un-winding of Yen Carry Trade Likely Cause of China's Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Adrian_Ash
A BOWL OF RICE topped with chicken and egg, oyakodon translates literally as "mother and child" – a tasteless joke for the chicken and its babies, perhaps. But add a dash of soy sauce and it makes for a very tasty meal.The chicken-and-egg question of Japanese carry-trades, on the other hand, is rapidly making investors sick the world over. Which came first – the end of carry, or the collapse of share prices in Shanghai? The newswires blame Beijing's threat of higher interest rates...new restrictions on stock market IPOS...even a tax on financial speculation!
But what if the sudden unwinding of the carry-trade caused Shanghai to collapse instead? If you think that oyakodon has got little to do with the S&P losing 5% since this time last week, take note. For the chicken and egg question also applies going forward.
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Sunday, March 04, 2007
Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 4th Mar 07 - What a Difference a Day Makes / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Dominick
It's funny how one day can change everything for so many traders and investors. But at TTC we just did what we do every day and, as you're about to see, the strategy worked quite nicely!
First, we're still very proud to have ridden the bull market all the way up from last summer's lows, insisting each week that the ride wasn't over yet. After reaching the 1360 target on the SPX it was easy to say “done”, but I refused after reviewing literally hundreds of charts. Instead, I took the stance that a stronger, multi-decade Fib matrix target on the NYSE was asserting itself, and would need to be reached.
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Sunday, March 04, 2007
Canadian Stock Market - Bear Market has Possibly Begun - TSX - Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Canadian Stock Market
By: Francois_Soto
Wow! What a day!The sharp sell off today in all sorts of equities following the plunge in Asia is slowly confirming that the mood of market participants is now changing from greed to fear. A day like we experienced today is a precursor sign that we are now entering a bear market of larger degree. In this report, we will check what is going on using the Elliott Wave Theory.
To simplify the analysis below, we will only take a look at Canadian equities because we believe the TSX index is by far the easiest to analyze no matter the time frame we are looking at due to the very classical and simplistic patterns it made in the past. In other words, it is less complex than indexes tracking the American equities such as the SPX, INDU and COMPQ but yet still reflects what happens down the border and worldwide.
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Sunday, March 04, 2007
How do you Spell TOP in the Dow Jones and other Stock Market Indices / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Boris_Chikvashvili
How do you Spell Stock Market TOP ?
Look at the projection on the chart below - The Red curve SOLD QQQQ 44.73 2c From the Top.
The Original projection was posted 3 days before the top !
"Sentiment is Super Bullish, Bearish transportation not confirming, buying pressure is rising, stocks not responding. Dow has either topped Wednessday or may have 1% more left".
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Saturday, March 03, 2007
Weekly Financial Markets Review - China Plunge, Dow Jones Index Errors and US Recession / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The week was dominated by Tuesdays sell off in China's Shanghai Index by 9%, and its ripple effect across the Worlds Stock Markets, which saw falls of more than 4% across the board by the end of the week.
We had been warning of the likely hood of a sell off in China for much of February. Several articles preceded the sell off in the stock markets including Mondays US Subprime Mortgages Fallout and Declining Housing Market likely to hit the Stock Market.
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Saturday, March 03, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 3rd March 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Last Tuesday NASDAQ volume of declining issues (OTC DV) was 24 times the volume of advancing issues (OTC AV). In the past ratios of that magnitude usually occurred near short term lows.
Short Term
Last Tuesday's 24 to 1 ratio of OTC AV / OTC DV ranks 8th highest since 1978, the first year for which I have NASDAQ volume data.
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Saturday, March 03, 2007
The Real Reason for the the Stock Market Falls - Cheap Money from the Bank of Japan / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
If you think stock markets were the only ones that went haywire this week, look again:
The dollar fell sharply, especially against the yen ... Treasury bonds soared, with the long bond gaining almost a point and a half on February 27 alone ... and gold prices swung all over the place.
In other words, volatility went off the charts in almost every market I track. A volatility gauge maintained by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, for example, exploded 63% in a single day, the biggest increase in U.S. market history.
What single force links all this action? What little (or big!) beast could possibly be behind so many seemingly disparate market moves? Here's my answer …
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Saturday, March 03, 2007
Spike in VIX Stock Market volatility - The End Of Complacency? / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at the recent upspike in volatility, see if we can connect some dots with the recent slew of earnings downgrades and the problems in the subprime mortgage world, and follow the money as risk is being taken off the table. I don't "buy" the China problem, but there may be an Asian connection. Let's try and keep it simple as we try and see what's behind curtain #3 labeled "Which direction is the stock market headed?"
But first, if you have not signed up for my Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla, California, April 19-21, this week's market action is a perfect reason why you should. Want to get the real lowdown on China? Come listen to one of the premier Asian investment experts, Louis-Vincent Gave, give us his on-the-ground view of Asia.
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Friday, March 02, 2007
Stock Market Falls - What to do now ? / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Hans_Wagner
On Tuesday February 27, 2006, the market once again told everyone that it is in charge with a 3.3% drop in the DJIA. When the market makes a move like it did, the first thing to do is step back and assess your situation. History shows us that significant drops in the market are not the start of a new bear market. There are exceptions; however, we are looking at the probabilities. As a result I do not believe this is a bear market. At least not yet. Days like today are often followed by further declines. Most times falls like this, present buying opportunities over the next few days, sometimes up to weeks.
This fall was caused by several factors including:
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Friday, March 02, 2007
Larry's take on the wild Stock Market and Gold action / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
For months, I've been warning you that U.S. stock markets looked overbought and were headed for a tumble.
And just last week, I said that a Dow close below the 12,242 level “will be your signal that the recent economic strength is rolling over, that investors think corporate earnings have peaked, and that the weakness in the housing sector is really hitting home.”
Friday, March 02, 2007
Dow Jones Index gave 150 point false Index reading on Tuesdays crash - Who profited? / Stock-Markets / Strategic News
By: Brady_Willett
Late Tuesday afternoon, Dow Jones Indexes made a seemingly minor confession about a technical glitch that took place earlier that day. Specifically, in the middle of Tuesday's market decline – beginning at 1:50 pm precisely – Dow Jones Indexes began incorrectly reporting the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow). In other words, instead of displaying say 12,200 - the actual trading level of the 30-Dow components - the Dow was showing 12,350. Ever vigilant, they eventually identified the problem and “switched over to a back-up system” at 3:00PM.
Now there is no question that computers sometimes do err: instances of market miscalculation and/or miscommunication have dotted the financial ledger in the past - like between the futures and cash markets during the crash of 1987. However, and although a potentially innocent event, the interesting thing about Tuesday's computer malfunction is that it persisted without being recognized for 70-minutes! The question to ask, naturally enough, is what on earth was going on during this 70-minute interval?
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Friday, March 02, 2007
Inflation in the pipleline not Deflation - Stock Market is Correcting. / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: David_Petch
According to deflationists, we are at the cusp of a collapse in the money supply. There are two articles I previously published titled "Diatribes of a Deflationist" and "Diatribes of a Deflationist II". I do not like to spew information contained in prior research articles because unless I see any change to an argument it is pointless to regurgitate the same information. As such refer to the archives section of this site under my name to review these and other prior material mentioned below.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Stock Market Meltdown shows Greenspan's 'invisible hand' / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Mike_Whitney
Tuesdays stock market freefall has Greenspan's bloody fingerprints all over it. And, no, I'm not talking about Sir Alan's crystal ball predictions about the impending recession; that's just more of his same circuitous blather. The real issue is the Fed's suicidal policies of low interest rates and currency deregulation which have paved the way for economic Armageddon. Whether the Chinese stock market contagion persists or not is immaterial; the American economy is headed for the dumpster and it's all because of the wizened former fed-chief, Alan “Great Depression” Greenspan. So, what does the stumbling Chinese stock market have to do with Greenspan?
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Wednesday, February 28, 2007
The Ugly Reality of the US Stockmarket - How it suckers retail Investors / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
It doesn't take a great treatise or any "rocket science" to expose the ugly and sordid reality of the true condition of the broad US stockmarket - all it takes is a few charts and a modest helping of common sense.
The reason why the Dow Jones Industrials Average features so prominently in the mainstream financial press is that it is the principal tool used by wholesale vendors of stock to sucker the ordinary retail investor into buying at market tops. The recent past provides a perfect example.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2007
What's behind the Global Stock market Shake-out? / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Gary_Dorsch
In a keynote speech on February 2nd, in the northern Italian city of Turin, Bank of Italy chief Mario Draghi, warned global stock market operators not to assume that present favorable conditions would last. “It is not realistic to expect that the current orderly market conditions will last forever, we do not know where the next crisis will come from, we must do everything to be prepared,” he said.“Market pricing does not currently incorporate the full range of potential risks. Financial market participants need to take into account in their risk analyses, the full implications of a possible reversal of the current benign conditions, including the possibility of less liquid markets,” he warned.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Stock Markets crash! Here's what to do / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
Yesterday's market crash struck Wall Street like a bat out of hell — the Dow down 416 points, the S&P 500 off 50 points, and Nasdaq pummeled by a whopping 97 points Virtually every investment under the sun — blue chips and tech stocks ... large caps and small caps ... domestic stocks and international stocks — even gold and silver — got hit hard.
But the most dramatic event came at about 3 o'clock in the afternoon Eastern Time: Just when many Wall Street traders figured the worst was over and started packing up to go home, Dow Jones was running into a technical computer glitch. It lost track of the averages and had to catch up suddenly. Result: One moment the Dow was off 200 points; the next it was off another 200 points, and soon, down 546 points!
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