Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Transitions From Stocks Bear Markets To Bull Markets / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Chris_Ciovacco
From the tulip bulb craze in the 1630s to the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, human beings continue to make the same mistakes over and over again.”
In a recent article, Stocks Will Bottom Well Before Economy , we conceded the outlook for the economy remains bleak, but the S&P 500's recent 46% decline has already priced in much of the bad news. Presently, we remain in a bear market, which means principal preservation is the primary objective. However, the recent declines in stocks have dropped valuations to levels where buyers will be more inclined to step forward. At some point, stocks will begin to transition from a bear market back to a bull market. It could occur relatively soon or may not happen for an extended period of time. Regardless of when the shift occurs, it is prudent to prepare for the transition.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Stock Market Investing Dividend Yields Vs Bond Yields Analysis / Stock-Markets / Dividends
By: John_Mauldin
This week I have a very special Outside the Box for you. Peter Bernstein is recognized as one of the more brilliant and insightful analysts of our times. At 89, he has been writing prescient material longer than most of us "young guys" (I am 59, and hope I am still writing at 89, or even able to write!) have been even marginally in the markets. His Economics and Portfolio Strategy Letter is read by the true cognoscenti of the investment world. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Financial Markets in the Middle of a Hurricane of Tornado? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Paul_J_Nolte
A nice little treat at the end of October as the markets managed a weekly gain for only the third time since the end of August. The question remains as to whether we are in the middle of a hurricane or tornado. The difference? We could be in the eye of the hurricane, with more destruction ahead or the tornado has already plowed through and the slow rebuilding process can begin.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
The Moral Hazard of Financial Markets Regulation / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Since the bailout bill passed, I have been frequently disturbed to hear "experts" wrongly blaming the free market for our recent economic problems and calling for more regulation. In fact, further regulation can only make things worse.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
Stock Market Pauses Ahead of Tuesdays Presidential Election / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Harry_Boxer
We got basically what we thought we would on Monday -- a quieter session, lower volume, and slightly lower prices. There was a little bit of afternoon volatility, but for the most part the indices opened mixed, worked their way sharply higher initially, and then went into a couple-hour consolidation. It looked like that they maybe would try to break out, but when they failed to break through on two different occasions they then rolled over in the afternoon. Then they retested Friday afternoon's lows and the rising trendlines, bounced sharply, but in the last 10 minutes once again slipped sharply lower and gave back half the late rally, closing negative on the session.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
Stocks Bear Market How Low Could it Go? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Paul_Lamont
As we stated last October (the month of the stock market's peak); “the stock market is a sideshow, it can adjust to the economic reality very quickly as it did in 1929 (especially with credit losses already in place).” Only misconceptions about the Great Depression cause a dismissal of the similarities. Commodities are correcting sharply as forecast. The U.S. Dollar has gained double-digits against other currencies while the Yen is “ soaring to 13 year highs .” The U.S. stock market (DJIA) has fallen below the ‘ line in the sand ' described in March. And European countries are faring much worse as expected . Even our forecast for Mega Thrift is becoming more plausible. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
Emerging Markets Turnaround is Getting Closer—Here’s Why / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Frank_Holmes
These are the kind of markets that test the courage of investors.
Currency volatility overlaying equity volatility has exaggerated all price actions. We believe the trillions of dollars of liquidity slowly filtering through the financial system will produce sunshine for these markets.
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Monday, November 03, 2008
Explosive Stocks Bear Market Rally Testing Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Jack_Steiman
Oh how sweet it was for the bulls with one hour to go. All three major indexes, including the two most important, the Nas and Sp, we're well above their 20 day exponential moving averages. The bears were staring at a situation they probably didn't think humanly possible when they woke up Monday morning this past week. The market had exploded up and was now testing the area where all bear market rallies go home to die a quick, painful death or better known as those 20 day moving averages. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
Stock Market Short-term Rally to be followed by New Bear Market Low / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Christopher_Quigley
The American economy continues to contract. Construction levels are declining. Building permits, which are a gauge of future activity, fell to 786,000 in September from 857,000 in August. In September industrial production suffered its biggest decline since the recession of 1974-5. This broad based weakness suggests that the recession will be deep. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Building a Base for Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend -
Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over earlier than anticipated and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - Potential lows were made in October. A pull-back into November is probable, and new lows are still possible.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Battered Global Markets End October With Worst Losses in History / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
October lived up to its reputation as being a torrid month. The following extraordinary performances tell the story:
• MSCI Word Index: -19.1% (largest monthly decline since the Index started in 1969, beating October 1987's -17.1%)
• MSCI Emerging Markets Index: -27.1% (worst monthly loss since Russia's debt default in August 1998)
Sunday, November 02, 2008
FTSE 100 Stock Market Index Forecast Year End Rally / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As per several requests for a stock market analysis update, here is my current summary outlook for the FTSE 100 Stock Market Index. The FTSE 100 index has continued to build a base following the Great Crash of 2008 that took the index to a low of 3665, having since recovered to 4383, up 718 points / 19.5% in just 5 days. Whilst the day to day volatility has presented short-term traders with great opportunities however it has left long-term investors shell shocked.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Gold Sell Signal as Oversold Stock Markets Turn Bullish / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
Don’t trust the Text Books - On reflection, there may be more to what is happening on the markets than meets the eye. For one thing, the gold price – the ultimate harbinger of fear in the economy – is stubbornly refusing to rise to new heights, and its oscillator has given a sell signal. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Bullish Stock Market Technicals and Seasonal's / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: With a 19.9% advance in the last 4 trading days the Russell 2000 (R2K) is only 0.1% below the popular definition of a bull market.
Short Term - Many of the short term indicators are off the charts, trying to read anything into them is too risky.
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Saturday, November 01, 2008
Stock Markets Staring into the Abyss / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Colin_Twiggs
The Paradox Of Thrift - A common topic of discussion in the media is the paradox of thrift — a term coined by John Maynard Keynes to describe the negative effect of increased savings on consumption. When threatened by recession we tend to consume less and save more. Keynes argued that the decrease in consumption has the effect of lengthening the recession. While accepted by many economists, this reasoning has a basic flaw. It assumes that savings and investment are independent of each other. In an ideal market-driven financial system, the two are directly linked, with savings financing new investment. An increase in savings would mean that interest rates are likely to fall. Falling interest rates would encourage new investment, more than offsetting the initial reduction in consumption. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
The Financial Crisis Next Shoe to Drop / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Marty_Chenard
To many, things are starting to look rosier. Bank liquidity flows are starting to improve ... not great, but showing some improvement.
At the same time ... Bush knows it hasn't been enough of an improvement, so he warned banks that they better start opening up the lending spigots. Banks are afraid, risk averse, and resisting. Twenty five percent of "excellent credit rating borrowers" are being declined when trying to get a new car loan. Next, I expect that Bush will push the bank Regulatory Agencies to put a lot of pressure on banks to start lending.
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Saturday, November 01, 2008
Stock Markets Rise Wall of Worry as Consumer Spending Slumps / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The consumer votes “ No Confidence .” - “The October survey recorded the largest monthly decline in consumer confidence in the history of the surveys. “Consumer confidence had already declined by mid 2008 by more than prior to any past recession and the steep October loss indicates that accelerated cutbacks in spending can be expected during the months ahead,” according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Overall, the data indicate that this will be the bleakest holiday spending season since 1980. “Consumers held the least favorable assessments of their finances in more than a half century and viewed their job prospects more negatively than at any other time since the end of 1980,” according to Curtin. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Global Stock Markets Get Halloween Relief / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
I will be covering a global stock market performance round-up after the month end, but thought it would make for interesting reading to briefly review the action of the past three days.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 31, 2008
Stocks Bear Market is Not Over More Selling Expected / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Reviewing the big-picture, monthly S&P 500 chart, let's notice that the monthly momentum (RSI) confirmed this month's (Oct '08) plunge and remains pointed straight down, which argues that the low has not yet been established. While the SPX -- and its corresponding ETF, the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) -- could rally a bit more based on my nearer-term oversold work, perhaps into the 1040-1060 area, the overall chart structure suggests very strongly that thereafter we should expect another vicious period of selling pressure that drives the SPX beneath the 2002 low at 768.60 prior to the emergence of a sustainable "bullish" period. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 31, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Worst is Likely Behind Us / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Derrick
To get some perspective on the current market conditions, it may be helpful to look at what some bear markets of the past have looked like.
Below is a chart that goes back to 1940, and you can see that what we've recently gone through was the second-worst five-day period of time over the last 68 years. It was essentially a market crash. The only other thing that's really even close was the crash of 1987.
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