Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, June 21, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Indicator: Bulls Losing Conviction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
The "dumb money" is beginning to lose conviction. The "Dumb Money" indicator has been in the extremely bullish zone suggesting too many bulls for 7 consecutive weeks now, and over that time, the S&P500 has lost about 1%.
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Sunday, June 21, 2009
Stock & Commodities Markets Profit Taking After Strong 3 Month Advances / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Caution last week crept back into investors' vocabulary for the first time in more than three months as they faced up to President Barack Obama's plan to reform the US financial market regulations, weighed the prospects of a global economic recovery and whether the "green shoots" needed more monetary water, and also started pondering the second-quarter earnings season.
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Saturday, June 20, 2009
Stock Market Warning, Counter Trend Rally Moves Continue to Spark False Hopes / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The story remains the same. As a result, I feel that it is important to rehash the last article that I posted here a month or so ago. As I listen to the mainstream commentators, the public and even my local news, it is obvious that optimism remains high. William Peter Hamilton, the great Dow theorist who followed in the footsteps of Charles H. Dow, warned against allowing “the wish to father the thought.” I have listened and closely studied the words of many of the reporters and interviewees on the news and there is little doubt that their optimism is allowing “the wish to father the thought.” Wishing and optimism is not the basis for sound analysis.
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Saturday, June 20, 2009
Stock Market Positive Technicals / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The good news is: • While the market was down last week, there was no increase in the number of new lows.
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Saturday, June 20, 2009
Stocks Bull Market Bullish Bias, "This Time its Different" / Stock-Markets / Recession 2008 - 2010
This Time It's Different*
Peter Bernstein, R.I.P.
Welcome to the New Normal
The Three Amigos
Credit Spreads - Bullish or Bearish?
ISM - Is Less Bad That Good?
Contain Your Enthusiasm
I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are "This Time It's Different." If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn't different. It almost never is.
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Friday, June 19, 2009
The Deep End of a Dark Pool / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
There was some speculation that the financial markets in this country would suddenly stagnate after the most recent downturn. The innovation of products that used an ever-increasing and more complicated methodology to make money would stop, paving the way for dull and boring, over-regulated markets that offered so much oversight as to slow the growth of the country. To hear some Wall Streeters talk, the end of an era was upon us.
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Friday, June 19, 2009
Larger Upleg Still Intact for Nasdaq Q's / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
When Goldman Sachs (GS) puts Microsoft (MSFT) on its Conviction Buy List, not only is it positive for the name, but perhaps it is very positive for big-cap technology, too, perhaps the kind of technology names imbedded in the NDX. Maybe GS is impressed with BING, which gives MSFT a new product that can and will effectively compete with Google (GOOG).
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Friday, June 19, 2009
Stock Market Headwinds as Inflation Pressures Remain / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Whether real or perceived, inflationary pressures are a headwind for equities. Data out this week shows year over year changes in both CPI and PPI at five decade lows. Inflation? What inflation?
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Friday, June 19, 2009
Another Damp Squib Day For Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Yesterday was one of those hard to write about, rudderless days with pathetic volume. The only notable trend was the continued move into Healthcare, as Senator Kennedy’s health care reform bill looks dead in the water, and Utilities, as a more cautious tone prevailed. Economic news was decidedly mixed, with the Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators providing upside surprises but the Weekly Jobless and Continuing Claims Jobs numbers continued to be worrisomely high. After the bell, BlackBerry maker Research in Motion report some underwhelming numbers which may pressure the Nasdaq and Dax at the open.
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Friday, June 19, 2009
Companies Flooding Stock Markets With New Shares to Drive Stocks Lower Over Summer / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Mark Hulbert says, “Notwithstanding the carnage the stock market suffered between October 2007 and March of this year -- the worst since the Great Depression -- corporations' share issuance departments are partying like it's 1999. In fact, firms have recently issued far more shares of their stock (either through initial public offerings or secondary offerings) than they did even in the go-go years of the late 1990s and at the top of the Internet bubble in early 2000. That's not good news, from a contrarian point of view: The stock market historically has tended to perform poorly following periods in which firms have flooded the market with more shares.”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 19, 2009
Stock Market Downtrend Targeting Key Support S&P500 at 850 / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The CPBE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Index is shown below, with the S&P 500 Index shown in the background in black and accompanying stochastics shown below. For this chart the %K above the %D for a given stochastic is an indication of general weakness in the broad stock market indices, while falling beneath the %D is an indication of general strength. At present, the %K is above the %D, indicating market weakness and was running at a divergence to the S&P 500 Index that was grinding higher.
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Thursday, June 18, 2009
S&P 500 Index Consolidating / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
From an intraday perspective the S&P 500 emini futures contract appears to be consolidating or triangulating around the 912 level, ahead of one more pop that projects to 920-922 prior to a resumption of the dominant near-term downtrend. Such is my preferred scenario for the recovery bounce off of yesterday’s low at 899.25 – levels that ETF traders of the SPY and SDS may want to keep an eye on.
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Thursday, June 18, 2009
The Secret Emerging Market / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Martin Hutchinson writes: Many commentators have picked the East Asian economies of China, Korea and Taiwan to emerge the most vigorously from the ongoing global financial crisis. And with some justification, for China and the two Asian “tigers” share some alluring characteristics like:
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Thursday, June 18, 2009
Stock Markets End Flat After Up Down Battle / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Markets played a game of ping pong yesterday before finishing broadly flat. News from bellwether stock FedEx cast an early pall. Analysts were expecting revenue of $8.32bn this quarter but they reported only $7.85bn. Freight was down 28%, as producers can’t ship if producers aren’t ordering. Another green shoot gets snipped. Note also the lower than expected inflation numbers and the fall in mortgage applications (down 15.8%).
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Thursday, June 18, 2009
What a Strong Stocks Bull Market Looks Like / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
Here it is in all it's glory, the 10 year weekly log scale chart of Mr. Gold:Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Stocks Bull Markets Bullsh*T & Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
When credit growth is positive, bull markets result. When credit growth is excessive, bubbles result. When credit growth slows, recessions result and when credit growth contracts, all hell breaks loose.
In free markets, supply and demand determine price and profits. Capitalism’s paper-based markets, however, are not free markets. In today’s capitalist markets, price and profits are determined by credit flows emanating from government central banks.
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Thursday, June 18, 2009
Stock Market Rally Following 1931 Bear Crash Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Bob Chapman writes: The next major move in the stock market will be down. We are seeing the last vestiges of a rally similar to what we saw in 1931. The rally we expected at 6600 up to 8500 will end as soon as all the financial institutions that need to sell what stock is necessary to bolster their balance sheets. Our guess is the rally has been aided in a big way by short covering and the participation of the US government. Those who believe the SEC has stopped naked short selling are sadly mistaken.
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Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Banking Stocks Sector Index Trend Damage / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
March ... April ... June ... the Banking index climbed with the market.
In early May, the Banking index topped out at 43.67. And then ... it pulled back sharply.
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Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Bullish on the Nasdaq Q's / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
With AAPL, GOOG, PALM, AMZN, MSFT, INTC, CSCO acting relatively well today, the NDX is outperforming the Dow and the SPX. Let's take a look at the pattern that has been carved out by the PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQQ).Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Stock Market S&P 500 Correction or a Major Turning Point? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
With the S&P 500 falling to a fresh two-week low, the big question is this a correction, or the start of a major trend on the downside?
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