Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 11, 2019
Is the Stock Market Making a V-shaped Recovery? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market continues to rally. V-shaped rallies are uncommon, but not impossible. Today’s headlines:
- V-shaped bounce
- Volatility is falling
- % of stocks above their 50 dma is rising
- AAII sentiment crashed
- NAAIM sentiment crashed
Sunday, August 11, 2019
Precious Metals and Stocks VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’re borrowing a term from the movie Red October (source) that describes an unusual change of direction for a Russian submarine with the intent to seek out enemies and unknown targets – called a “Crazy Ivan”. We are using this term because we believe the markets are about to pull a very unusual “Crazy Ivan” move of their own – reverting to unknown price levels while the US/Global markets attempt to seek out risk, support, resistance and other unknown “revaluation” targets in the process.
Our belief is that a key cycle date, August 19, 2019, will be the start of a breakdown in the US markets that aligns with some outside type of catalyst event. It could be that foreign central banks issue some news or warning at that time or it could be that Asia/China issue some type of catalyst to the event. We don’t know what the catalyst will be but we can guess that it will be related to geopolitics or the global economy/credit/debt issues. God forbid it to be some type of war or human crisis event – we really don’t need that right now.
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Sunday, August 11, 2019
Traders: Which Markets Should You Trade? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Submissions
As technology advances and trading innovation continues, many traders want to diversify their investments. The prospect of making more profits have led many into trading markets they never thought possible. Although traders are continually seeking better markets and improved opportunities to explore, not many are in the know of the types of trading instruments available in this digital age. Surprisingly, traders are not the only ones looking to improve their chances of earning more. Even seemingly different markets are now attempting to steal each other's market share. For instance, traders no longer need to buy physical gold or even from a futures contract to participate in the movement of gold prices; instead, they can now buy an exchange traded fund (ETF). With that being said, similar scenarios are now possible with stock, currencies, commodities, and other investments. Hence, traders generally have a wealth of diversified opportunities they can leverage to their individual circumstances.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 10, 2019
Market’s flight-to-safety: Should You Buy Stocks Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market and bond yields recovered today from an early morning decline. Meanwhile, financial markets have exhibited some extreme flight-to-quality over the past few days. Today’s headlines:
- Lots of gaps
- Put/Call ratio remains high
- Flight to quality: part 1
- Flight to quality: part 2
- Similarities between today and 2016
- Bullish Percent falling to a new low
- Gold spiked (again)
Friday, August 09, 2019
Our Custom Index Charts Suggest Stock Markets Are In For A Wild Ride / Stock-Markets / Austrian Economics
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past week, our members have been emailing us and asking us “what’s going to happen next” and “any updates on the move in metals and the US stock markets”. With this incredible downside move prompted by the US Fed and the US/China trade talk failure, it certainly appears that the markets are poised for something big and dramatic.
We dove into our custom indicator charts to try to get a better gauge of the current market environment and to help illustrate that our research team has been all over this move for months. Before we get started, we want to urge our followers to read the following research posts :
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Thursday, August 08, 2019
Technical Analysis of US Major Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Justin_Weinger
Microsoft (MSFT)
At the present time, Microsoft is one of the best-performing major US stocks, up 59% since January 2019. Even though the tech sector had quite a bumpy ride for the past year and a half, the major software company continued to advance higher, exceeding the $1 trillion market cap valuation.
Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Where's the Stock Market bottom? Is this IT? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last Friday, August 2, 2019, we posted an article suggesting this current downside move in the US stock market may be setting up a “washout low” price rotation and we suggested all traders be very cautious over the weekend. Obviously, with the US major indexes down -2 to -3% right now on extended selling after the Asian/Chinese stock market and currencies collapsed overnight, one has to ask the question “is this IT? The big collapse everyone has been waiting for?”
Our researchers believe this is the precursor to the move that everyone has been waiting for. This move in the markets sets up a potential for a bigger collapse and we strongly believe this is a washout rotational low that is setting up – very similar to what happened in October 2018 when the US Fed initiated a downside price rotation in the markets. Time will tell if we are correct or not, but we believe the August 19, 2019 peak/breakdown date that we've been predicting is still a valid target date and this current news sets up a price pattern that may result in an incredible future price rotation for skilled technical traders.
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Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Stock Market Setting Up for Dead-Cat Bounce or Liquidation Event? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
The last week of July/first week of August was quite interesting as volatility is finally back. The bears got their resurrection by closing below the ongoing "sh*t hits the fan level" at 2955 on Thursday August 1. Essentially, active traders and investors had to de-risk and go into more defensive positions. The risk-off scenario continues with the price action confirmation below both the key trending daily 8/20EMAs and also the 2955 level. Obviously, a lot of growth stocks and higher beta names got hit hard and the weakness will continue until stabilization occurs.
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Monday, August 05, 2019
Stock Market Intermediate Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, August 05, 2019
Is This The Start Of The Next Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few days, we’ve received hundreds of emails from our followers and members asking if this is the big breakdown that everyone has been expecting in the markets. Yes, we’ve warned that it will likely happen before the end of 2019, but we’ve also been very clear that we believe an August 19, 2019 price peak will setup this move and our recent research suggest the NQ will rally to levels above 8200 before this peak in the US market sets up. So, in order to help our members and followers understand what we believe is actually happening in the markets, we’ve put together this research post to help everyone better prepare for the next few weeks and months.
Friday, August 02, 2019
Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For some reason there are still mainstream media journalists out there going on about how China is winning the trade war against the US. Perhaps they just want to pump out any propaganda that hurts trumps re-election prospects? Or more likely are clueless automatons whose primary purpose is to regurgitate the editorial line of media out fits they represent. Anyway they are still just as wrong as they have been for the duration of the Trump presidency.
Friday, August 02, 2019
Small Cap Stocks Setup A Very Rare & Interesting Price Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers have identified a very rare type of price pattern that is typically associated with explosive trend changes and trends. We call this type of pattern a “Sandwich” pattern because of how price reacts within a range. The IWM, Russell 2000 ETF, is illustrating a nearly perfect example of this pattern right now.
Daily IWM chart (Russell 2000 Small Cap Index)
This close up view of the Daily IWM chart highlights the Sandwich pattern over the most recent 5 trading days and how price enters this volatile period, rotates around within a range, then settles near the upper or lower end of the range before a price breakout occurs. Notice the earlier Sandwich pattern setup and how price settled near the bottom of the range before a downside price leg pushed the price much lower.
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Friday, August 02, 2019
The Stock Market Fell and Volatility Spiked. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P fell Thursday on trade war-related news and volatility spiked. Today’s headlines:
- More economic weakness in manufacturing.
- Long streak of bad economic surprises
- Stock market’s volatility spiked
- AAII sentiment
- Short term bounce ahead for stocks?
Thursday, August 01, 2019
Stock Market Bearish Signs from the Fed, Economy, and Volume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Stocks fell Wednesday as the Fed cut interest rates. Today’s headlines:
- Rate cut and stocks
- The economic expansion cycle
- Manufacturing weakness
- Stock market’s volume
- U.S. Dollar breakout
Thursday, August 01, 2019
Next Recession Robust Case For The Largest Stock Market Losses In History / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
Stock market indexes are currently at record or near record highs, even as the chances for recession within the next 1-2 years seem to be rising. So how great would the losses be from these record heights, if the business cycle continues and we get another round of recession and bear market?
Thursday, August 01, 2019
US Fed Rattles Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today is the day for the US Fed to announce their rate decision and we believe the 25 basis point rate cut is the only option they have at the moment that will attempt to settle foreign market fears and allow for a suitable “unwinding” of the credit/debt “setup” we highlighted in Part I of this research post.
We believe out August 19 expectation of a global market PEAK and the beginning of a price reversion move is related to multiple aspects of the timing of this Fed move and the current global economic outlook. The unwinding of this debt/credit bubble will likely take many more years to unravel. Yet, right now the US Fed is trapped in a scenario they never expected to find themselves in. Either continue to run policy that supports the US economy (where rates would likely stay between 1.75 to 2.75) over the next 5+ years or yield to the global market and attempt to address a proper exit capability for this debt/credit “setup”.
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Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast and AI Investing Update (2/2) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of my July stock market trend forecast update. Much as expected the correction ended and resolved in a rally towards the trend forecast. With the Dow currently deviating from the trend forecast by about +1.5%.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Stock Market Expensive: Traumatic Correction Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
As S&P climbs to new highs and closes another week into 3000s levels, we believe that the ground underneath is starting to slip. The economy per say may not be the problem. However the same cannot be said about valuation. The S&P500 is valued over 100% to its traditional mean and median levels on price to earning ratio. The one month treasury yield is now above US 2 year and 10 year yield thus effectively inverting. Money is often borrowed in the short term markets. A rise in short term rate is a warning signal of the coming mayhem. Rising yield will force models to reset after certain threshold are hit and this automatically converts into equity market cash outs. This sets of a chain reaction as sell momentum can spread across.
THe current S&P earning yield is 4.5% down from 6% thus contracting the returns investors make. This becomes even worrying when the short term yield is closing in on the earning yield at its fastest pace in over 10 years. We believe traumatic correction is on its way.
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Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Stock Market Medium-long Term Bullish Case From a Trend Following Perspective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market is going nowhere as traders prepare for a rate cut. Today’s headlines:
- The stock market’s MACD
- S&P’s indecision is coming to an end
- Put/Call remains very low
- Finance stocks are finally going up
- Materials are no longer lagging the stock market.
Monday, July 29, 2019
US Stocks Seem To Be Following Our Predictions – Get Ready / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this multi-part technology sector research post, we highlighted our previous research and predictive modeling result that suggest the US and global stock markets are poised for a peak/roll-over within the next 30+ days. Our predictive modeling systems and cycle analysis tools are pointing to August 19, 2019, critical inflection date that we believe will become the “breakdown date” for this next big move to the downside.
Part of our effort to help skilled technical traders is to provide research posts, like these, that highlight trade setups and allow our followers to understand the type of trading opportunities that are present for them to consider in the future. We believe the next 30+ days will prove our predictions are accurate and that the US/Global stock markets will roll-over into a new bearish trend – likely breaking downward near August 19, 2019.
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