Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, March 12, 2010
VIX Relative Strength Warning for SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This morning the S&P 500 (SPX) popped to a new recovery high above the Jan peak, although it has traded lower since then. It is interesting to notice that while the SPX climbed into new high territory, the cash VIX did not decline to new lows -- either beneath its Mar or Jan lows.
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Friday, March 12, 2010
SULTANS OF SWAP: Smoking Guns & the Sting! / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
There are 7 stages to executing a successful sting operation. Whether this is the modus operandi behind the Sultans of Swap operating in the $605 Trillion OTC Derivatives market or just simple coincidence, I will leave it to you shrewd reader to determine. The seven stages do however offer us an instructive theater guide to better understanding these murky instruments called Interest Rate Swaps.
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Friday, March 12, 2010
Stock Market S&P 500 At The Breakout..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
They tried to sell this puppy but it just wouldn't sell. It would have been best to sell a few hundred points on the Dow, and we started in that direction today. but the force of this bull just wouldn't allow for it. The bears came out of the gate defending the close just under S&P 500 1151 with a nice little gap down. It started to run some after trying to claw back to flat and it seemed the selling was finally under way. Some bull markets get silly and just don't allow for too much selling before the buyers rush back in. The S&P 500 was spending most of the day trading slightly under the flat line but as things drew closer to the final bell, the S&P 500 went green and closed right at the breakout with a final print of 1150.
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Friday, March 12, 2010
Stocks Sucker Rally, Bear Market Trap and the Energy Bull / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Rick Rule probably could draw an audience if he were talking about the weather, but combine his presence with knowledge, understanding, experience and a track record of success, particularly in the resource arena, and the crowd falls silent. Founder and chairman of Global Resource Investments, Rick recently made himself available for a brain-drain, the foundation of the piece that follows. . .
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Thursday, March 11, 2010
Financial Markets Biggest Question For the Next Two Months / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The biggest question for the next several months for markets is what?
Now that the S and P rallied over 60 pct since last March 2009, and pretty much all other markets except housing and real estate have also rallied (anything connected to financial markets that received the half of the several $trillion of US and other central bank emergency money infusions beginning big around March 2009) it begs the question when there will be a correction. Or a crash.
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Thursday, March 11, 2010
S&P 500 Stock Market Trends Forecast for March 2010 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This is a monthly chart for the S&P 500 showing 20 years of performance. Since this index is the one used by professional traders, it is important to understand how it is performing. This chart is also excellent at defining the longer-term trends for the market.
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Thursday, March 11, 2010
Doug Casey on How to Survive the Financial Apocalypse / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis
(Conversations with Casey: Interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator)
L: Doug, last time we spoke, you said quite a bit about debt, in the context of your expectation that the euro is on its way out. At the end of that conversation, you mentioned, of course, that the problem is not limited to Greece, nor the eurozone. America as a country has become a world-class debtor, and many Americans seem to think a maxed-out credit card is a reason to get a higher credit limit, not to economize. It's like a global epidemic. Let's talk about debt.
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Thursday, March 11, 2010
Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Mid-Week Technical Trading Charts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
So far this week has been pretty slow. Large cap stocks continue to lag the market which can be observed by looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average which still has room to move higher before breaking the January high.
One important thing to note is that volume has picked up this week considerably – particularly on the SP500 and OEX. It’s difficult to say if this volume is a good sign or not.
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Thursday, March 11, 2010
Stock Market Softer on Fears Tighter Chinese Policy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
A pretty moribund Wednesday but market sentiment has remained tilted towards the positive. In the US, the S&P500 took another stride towards eclipsing the 19 January high with a further 0.5% gain, helped by solid increases in the financials and the IT sector (of course the Nasdaq has already made new highs). US Treasury bonds were a bit weaker after the $21 billion 10 year auction. The auction itself was quite strong, with the bid-to-cover ratio of 3.45 comparing with the average of 2.77 over the last ten 10 year auctions.
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Thursday, March 11, 2010
Stock Market Rally Optical Illusions, “Oil Shocks,” and China’s Headache / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
March 9th, marked the one-year anniversary of the elusive bottom of the most brutal bear market since the 1930’s. At the time, job losses were running in excess of 700,000 /month, and fear was rife that the US-banking system was on the verge of being nationalized. American factories and miners were using 68% of industrial capacity, the lowest level since records began in 1948. Corporate profits fell sharply for the seventh consecutive quarter, the longest losing streak since the 1930’s. The second coming of the “Great Depression” looked imminent.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Distress Signals On Financial Crisis Watch / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2010
To be sure, almost without debate, all the financial world has turned to crisis mode. One can safely describe the norm to be crisis proliferation. This theme will clearly continue for the full year in progress. The signs are everywhere. The evidence is compelling. The criticism of remedy is replete with denials. The USGovt officials grow more desperate with each passing week. The Dubai and Greek debt woes seemed to have opened Pandora's Box.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
What’s Really Going On In The Financial and Commodity Markets This Year / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Most of the articles and media reporting are centered around the stock market, because most investors and traders look to the stock market for returns. A few newspapers and magazines occasionally talk about commodities, but are mostly reporting on Gold, Copper and Oil.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Structural Weakness of the US Dollar Means Rally Will Not Last / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Every important factor we see is working against the dollar and we believe that trend is irreversible. That means the present dollar rally probably cannot endure and it could well be the time to short the USDX.
Most observers discuss Europe’s problems and the plight of the euro, pound, and the Danish and Swedish koronas. They believe these European currencies will plunge lower versus the dollar and that the dollar will maintain, even after a dollar rally from 74 to 81 on the USDX. As we have said before the euro was unnatural creation born of a desire to usher in a world currency. As we shall see in the future the euro will fail.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Stock Market Crucial Test Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The rally out of the February intermediate and yearly cycle low has now traveled far enough and long enough that it is due to take a breather. That breather would be in the form of a short term pullback into the mid cycle low.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Stocks Tread Water Awaiting A Fresh Trend Catalyst / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
US stocks closed a rather modest 0.15% higher Tuesday in a real sea-saw day. Stocks opened lower, but rallied almost 1% in the morning and afternoon before selling off dramatically into the close. Stocks held onto their gains, but a low volume morning advance on no news was turned around on the highest volume of the day which came to the downside. This is a microcosm of what we have seen in recent months – low volume ascent and high volume descent.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
The End of the Stock Market Recovery? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I received an interesting e-mail the other day that sheds some light on the current state of investor psychology. He writes, “I hear from a hedge fund and analyst friend that most major cycle work tops out from this coming week thru April and [he says] it’s THE top. One he sites is the Bradley model which shows a devastating drop beginning after next week into October of this year to roughly Dow 6,500. Looking back all the way to 1900 chart of market I've never seen a major top without breadth deteriorating for many months or even a year or more before a major bear.”
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Where’s The Volume to Confirm The Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The volume of share trading for key index funds is going down while the price is going up. Should we say the smart money is quietly accumulating shares, or should we say that the smart money is on the sidelines while the dumb money pushes prices higher?
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Stock Market Last Day Selling..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
We finally saw the market pull back some late today as those high RSI readings kicked in. It wasn't the type of selling that says the market is doomed from here because that's not likely the case at all. When markets get overbought they need to unwind so you have to look at the selling that takes place more as an opportunity rather than a it's all over for the market type of situation. Selling is never fun if you have a long bias and it doesn't take very much selling to kick fear in pretty hard. Again, greed is easy. Fear is a tough son of a gun. With the late day selling we saw some of the 60-minute charts do quite a bit of unwinding although by no means should that selling be totally over. We can try to grind higher again but upside will be very tough indeed for the very short-term.
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Tuesday, March 09, 2010
Entropy, Why the World as We Know It Is Dying / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report
The concept of entropy is one of the most useful terms for understanding just about everything. While it has its origins in natural law – thermodynamics, specifically – the concept holds true pretty much across all closed systems.
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Tuesday, March 09, 2010
Stocks Unhappy Anniversary / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Today marks the one-year anniversary of what proved to be the low-point for risk assets in the post Lehman Brothers meltdown. However, as is typical in the wake of a US non-farm payrolls report, markets were pretty subdued overnight. Whilst Asian bourses rallied strongly yesterday in catch-up to Friday’s US price action, most key bourses in Europe have closed virtually unchanged Monday as did those in North America (indeed the S&P 500 traded within just a 4 index point range).
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