Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, August 29, 2011

Are We Really In A Stocks Bear Market Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-16.

SPX: Intermediate trend - The 1101 low of 8/22 appears to be holding and may mark the bottom of the intermediate downtrend which started at 1370 on 5/02.

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Gold, Stock Market Key Inflection Points / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: WavePatternTraders

Another week, another crazy set of moves, which I am sure are causing issues for some traders, although one thing that is working and working well is our areas, having key support and resistance areas sure does help trading these markets.

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Global Stock Market Sell-Off Strategy: Blend Winners and Losers / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: Investment_U

Carl Delfeld writes: No question, the global stock sell-off has been brutal, hitting high-quality growth markets and weak performers alike.

But while global emerging markets as a group, via the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSE: EEM), are down about 12 percent so far in 2011, a few countries are bucking the downtrend and remain in positive territory.

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Synopsis of Bernanke's Speech at Jackson Hole, and What It Means / Stock-Markets / Central Banks

By: Jesse

When listening to a speech like this, one has to remember who is speaking and under what conditions. A Fed Chairman has a thousand watt megaphone attached to his chest, and so he must speak quietly and calmly, in order not to disrupt markets and place the Fed in the middle of political controversies. Unless you have actually been close to or in a position of power, where your words carry great significance, it is all too easy to forget this.

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Stocks Primary Bear Market Dow Theory Update / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory

By: Tim_Wood

In accordance with Dow theory, once the trend is confirmed, that trend must be considered intact until it is authoritatively reversed. In the case of an up market, a move below the previous secondary low points are required in order to authoritatively reverse the uptrend and confirm a new downturn. On August 4, 2011 both the Industrials and the Transports closed below their previous secondary low points. In doing so, the bullish primary trend that began at the March 2009 low was reversed with a bearish primary trend change in accordance with classical Dow theory.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Stock Market New Uptrend Underway After Bernanke's Jackson Hole Speech? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Tony_Caldaro

The equity market reversed last week’s loses with equally impressive gains this week. After hitting a low on monday (SPX 1121) the market surged to 1191 early thursday, and then got struck by a selloff in Germany and concern about FED chairman Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech. Then after hitting SPX 1136 the market rallied into the friday close. Economic reports were sparse and generally negative. Improving, were durable goods orders, FHFA housing prices and consumer sentiment. On the downtick, were new homes sales, Q2 GDP, the monetary base, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 4.5%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 6.0%. Asian markets gained 1.1%, European markets gained 1.9%, the Commodity equity group gained 1.9%, and the DJ World index rose 2.5%. Next week we have an abundance of economic reports: ISM, the Chicago PMI, PCE prices, the Case-Shiller index, and the Payrolls report on friday.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Stock Market Bear Flag Continues... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Jack_Steiman

Try to understand why this may be taking place folks. The market had a tremendous move lower over only a two-week time period. Nearly 250 S&P 500 points in such a small amount of time. Markets only have so much energy from which to be able to make such a move before it needs a longer period of resting up. The bear flag (handle) is now three weeks old. It can get a lot older than that. I'll talk more about that later on in this letter. This extended period of time would allow folks to become more confused about what the market is about to do next. Within the bear flag there's a lot of whipsaw action. Totally understandable as the VIX is high, and folks who are confused are looking for other positions to act as protection. The whipsaw is dangerous to play from a trading perspective. The more you play the harder it'll be on up emotionally.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Stock Market Intermediate Signals Still Pointing Down! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Mike_Paulenoff

To put today's upmove in a larger perspective -- certainly larger than my 1-minute or 4-hours chart analytics, let's have a look at my updated weekly pattern and moving average analytics in the cash SPX.

Only twice in the last 11 years (2000 & 2007)  have ALL of my directional moving averages turned down into a negative crossing, which subsequently confirmed that an acute, intermediate-term bear phase was underway.  In 2000, after the downside MA inflection point, the SPX declined from 1380 to 768 (-45%), and in 2007 the SPX declined from 1475 to 666.79 (-55%).

Friday, August 26, 2011

The Stock Market Fear Ceiling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Zeal_LLC

Fear is the greatest buy signal ever seen in the stock markets.  This overpowering emotion flares fast, driving excessive selling that rapidly hammers stock prices down to irrational oversold levels.  These fear-driven lows are the ideal time for investors and speculators to buy low, necessary before selling high later.  Provocatively stock fear has an effective ceiling, absolute levels that demand aggressive buying.

Friday, August 26, 2011

ETF Rankings: Significant Downside Still Possible In Stocks / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Chris_Ciovacco

On August 3, we commented that recent breakdowns called for a defensive bias. Unfortunately, our concern about the market’s intermediate-term outlook has become more acute in recent weeks as we noted on August 22. The research presented below highlights the significant downside risks that remain in the financial markets. Until conditions improve, we will maintain a very defensive/high cash posture.

Friday, August 26, 2011

The Next Financial Panic Banking Sector Crash Could Start Tomorrow / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: Fears of a banking crisis and rolling contagion are making global stock and bond markets extraordinarily volatile - and with good reason.

Another financial meltdown, on par with what we saw in 2008, is looming large on the horizon.

Friday, August 26, 2011

Trading Markets, Reversals for Gold, Silver and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Submissions

Clay Tom writes: Gold.. Covered short positions.. Long.. Dgp and nugt, short dzz and dust. .. See the long tail .. Sperm pattern.. That is a bottom reversal. Indicators still point down, but obv started up.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

The Stock Market's Dumbest Rally of All Time / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Mike_Whitney

"Without the destructive power of the banks, hedge funds and other investment companies, the world would not be where it is today — at the edge of an abyss." Der Spiegel, "The Destructive Power of the Financial Markets"

Tuesday's 322 point surge on the Dow Jones must rank among the dumbest rallies of all time. The proximate trigger for the triple-digit moonshot was the feint hope that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke might pull another rabbit out of his hat at his Jackson Hole confab and announce another round of his bond purchasing program called Quantitative Easing.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Contracting Fibonacci Spiral Implications for the S&P 500 Stocks Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: David_Petch

One month I wrote a piece titled “Markets Trapped in a Contracting Fibonacci Spiral – Point of Singularity in 2019”. This was based upon the Fibonacci sequence, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34 etc. One item I forgot to mention was that from the 1932 bottom to 1966 was 34 years and 1966 to 1987 was 21 years...subsequently we saw the 2000 top (13 years) and then the 2008 top (8 years). This is rather more than coincidence that every major top since 1932 was identified by following a contracting Fibonacci sequence. There is no indication for how long tops last, but in general, corrections are severe...at least 40-50%.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

The Market Risk-On Trades Are Back / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The past month investors have been hit hard from the falling stock market. Those who owned gold and bonds have been rewarded. During times of economic fear which leads to selling of stock shares investors and traders find safety in gold and bonds. It was this surge of money coming out of stocks that propelled the price of gold and bonds sharply higher through-out this selloff.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

QE3 Gets Priced Into Markets / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Before Ben Bernanke lets a single sound slip from his mouth this week, investors have already put their money where Bernanke’s mouth is.  Investors want a minimum of $500 billion in quantitative easing, betting on rising Treasury prices when Bernanke addresses the press about what the Fed’s next move might be.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Fear Sets In, Panic Begins, Ruin Perceived, Prepare for Gold $2100 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Something big is going on in the United States in a sentiment change, an altered state of psychology, a growing sense of panic. My opinion is that the nation has entered the early stage of comprehension among the population of systemic failure. The most immediate measures are the rash of heavy selling down days in the US Stock market, the strong purchases in Gold, as well as the reactions to constant news of sovereign debt in trouble, and the big banks teetering. Several other softer measures have been noted, made overwhelming by their sheer numbers. A perception wave has taken hold of a toxic USEconomy, a toxic US financial sector, a toxic US housing sector, a toxic economic brain trust in the US towers. A sense of doom is creeping into the nation's living rooms and board rooms, that the nation is in deterioration. Worse, they are realizing how US Federal Reserve is toothless, unable to address or treat the problems.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Financial Crisis 2011 Worse than 2008, European Banking System on the Verge of Collapse / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: I hate to sound alarmist, but it looks as though the European banking system - and consequently the global banking system - is edging its way towards another epic collapse.

That means in just a few short months, stocks could be back at their 2009 lows while gold prices travel north of $2,500 an ounce.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Will The Stocks Cyclical Bull Market Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: John_Hampson

Time to revisit and update this table.

What are historically predictive indicators and measures currently saying?

Green = yes. Yellow = maybe. Red = No.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Financial Macroeconomic Outlook, The Winds of Change / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Submissions

Anthony J. Krcmar submits: The report relies heavily on the conceptual framework of a U.S economy in a balance sheet recession. Our main thesis rests on the belief that until U.S households repair their balance sheets and generate real income growth, they are in no position to drive a self-sustaining economic recovery.  Monetary policy (including quantitative easing (QE)) produces limited results in generating real economic growth--- since the demand for credit and the lack of qualified borrowers remain the issue not the supply of funds. Instead, expansive fiscal policy, through increased government budget deficits, exists as the primary lever to raise economic activity, transfer real financial assets to the private sector, and ease the pain of the deleveraging cycle.