Monday, April 30, 2018

A Contrarian Take on the Great Yield Curve Scare / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: F_F_Wiley

Media coverage of most business-cycle indicators waxes and wanes with changes in the economy, but so far in 2018, the yield curve indicator is all wax. It seems like everyone has something to say about the yield curve slope, and many commentators are jumping from a flatter curve to a growing risk of recession.

Even central bankers have joined in, with a recent article from the San Francisco Fed declaring that “the term spread is by far the most reliable predictor of recessions.”

Monday, April 30, 2018

Labour Local Elections Landslide, Are Opinion Pollsters & Pundits Wrong Again? Sheffield Trees Case / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The mainstream press backed up by the polling industry has once more built themselves up in a frenzy of reporting with much certainty that the Conservatives are heading for a blood bath in the local elections, with the epicentre London ripping out across the regions as Corbyn is NOW expected to build on his shock General Election result of last year that crippled Theresa May's government. All whilst forgetting that the same pollsters and pundits got last years general election very, very badly wrong! And so one has to beg the question are they wrong AGAIN, likely for the FIFTH TIME IN ROW!

Sunday, April 29, 2018

Why Stock Market Death Crosses Aren’t Bearish / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis

By: Troy_Bombardia

Here at Bull Markets I try to dispel conventional trading “wisdom” that’s widely accepted but is false. The media’s repetition of these statements misleads traders and investors.

I’ve recently heard some chatter about the “death cross” because the stock market has been falling a little. For those who aren’t aware, the “death cross” occurs when the 50 daily moving average falls below the 200 daily moving average. This is seen by mainstream financial media is a BIG bearish signal.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

Sheffield City Region Mayoral Election Results Forecast (South Yorkshire) / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections

By: N_Walayat

On May 3rd in addition to the local city council elections, the larger Sheffield city region (Sheffield, Doncaster, Barnsley, Chesterfield, Rotherham and apparently including large chunks of Derbyshire) will also hold an election for South Yorkshires first Mayor (sorry people who live in Derbyshire your now part of South Yorkshire). The candidates will likely be unknown to most voters, and all that voters can really go is where they are from, live and work. And what they represent in terms of party politics.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

Land Rover Discovery Sport Oil Service Interval at 12,000, 14000 or 21,000 Miles? / ConsumerWatch / Motoring

By: N_Walayat

Land Rover's sales pitch is that the Discovery Sport's first service is due at 21,000 miles or 2 years, thus saving owners on expensive services. That and their service packs only tend to cover for 1 service every 2 years which may be the reason for the 21,000 miles service sales pitch. Unfortunately on the one hand there's the sales pitch and then there's the reality of what to actually expect when owning and driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport as there exists a wide gap between the two.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

The Trump UK Visit and Britain's Superiority Complex / Politics / UK Politics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Trump Can Come. But Let Him Know Britain Won’t Stand For His Bigotry, is the headline of an article for the Guardian by Owen Jones. It’s just one of many articles, and one of many ways, I could use to point out what’s wrong in our world. In a TV appearance on ITV he apparently added:

“At the end of the day, if he comes – no one is saying he should be barred from the country by legal means – we’re saying we will take to the streets and say we reject racism, bigotry and will stand for the values most people in this country believe in.” Jones went on to insist “most” of the United Kingdom are against President Trump so it was in the country’s best interest to stand up for their beliefs.

Saturday, April 28, 2018

Marc Faber: Countries Unwise to Let Antagonistic U.S. Hold Their Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to be joined by a man who needs little introduction, Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report. Dr. Faber has been a long-time guest on financial shows throughout the world, and is a well-known Austrian economist and investment advisor, and it's a tremendous honor to have him on with us today.

Dr. Faber, thanks so much for joining us again, and, how are you?

Marc Faber: Well, it's my pleasure to be on your show. Thank you.

Saturday, April 28, 2018

Gold Stocks Seasonal Bull Spring Rally 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have mostly been consolidating low this year, exacerbating bearish sentiment.  Even with gold grinding higher in a solid uptrend and nearing a major upside breakout, the gold stocks just can’t get any love.  But that may be about to change, with gold and its miners’ stocks in the midst of their spring rally.  Strong seasonal tailwinds make May one of the best months of the year in gold-stock bulls.

Gold-stock performance is highly seasonal, which certainly sounds odd.  The gold miners produce and sell their metal at relatively-constant rates year-round, so the temporal journey through calendar months should be irrelevant.  Based on these miners’ revenues, there’s little reason investors should favor them more at certain times of the year than others.  Yet history proves that’s exactly what happens in this sector.

Saturday, April 28, 2018

Has Bitcoin Been Shot Down? / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

Another week, another outrageous prediction for the price of Bitcoin. We just saw a forecast at more than 75 times the current value of the currency. The figure is $700,000. Is Bitcoin really about to take off to the Moon or has it been shot down?

The honest answer is that nobody can say this with certainty. It’s probably not the answer you expected but we are more interested in giving you accurate information than false enthusiasm. Before we give you our view on the matter, let’s get to know the $700,000 claim. In an article on the Fortune website, we read:

John Pfeffer, a partner at his London-based family office Pfeffer Capital, is not only betting on Bitcoin, but giving it a bold price target of $700,000—about 75 times the current Bitcoin price of nearly $9,500.

Saturday, April 28, 2018

UK Local Elections Forecast 2018 - Trees vs Labour Sheffield City Council / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections

By: N_Walayat

The local elections will be held in less than 1 weeks time on Thursday 3rd of May 2018 when 1/3rd of Sheffield's city council seats are up for election, that's 28 out of a total of 84 seats. The current make up of the council has the Labour party on 56 seats resulting in an commanding majority of 28. Which has effectively allowed the Labour council free reign to adopt whatever policy they chose fit regardless of electoral consequences, and when criticised for some of their 'crackpot' actions such as signing a contract with a Spanish owned contractor that includes a target to to fell HALF of Sheffield's street trees at a time of climate change catastrophe, Labour councilors have tended to respond by referring to their strong electoral mandate.

Friday, April 27, 2018

Hold Dividend Payers To Weather Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Dividends

By: WMA

So far in 2018, equities have swung wildly, leaving market participants with whiplash. Consider that the S&P 500 rose +7.5% in January, fell -11.5% in early February, jumped back +10.5% in March, fell back -8.2% at the end of March, rallied +5.4% in early April only to give back -3.7% since last week. Phew! Investors who have relied on the “trend is your friend” investment strategy have gotten absolutely crushed so far this year. Those who have made money in 2018 are the algorithmic and high-frequency traders, as well as the courageous (and lucky) day traders willing to stand in front of apparent run-away moves. 

For most of us, trying to “trade” a volatile market, guessing which way a squiggly line will turn, is most often a losing proposition. Instead of buying rallies on optimism and selling after the market drops on fear -- a game that won’t last long no matter what the size of your portfolio – a much better strategy for most investors in a volatile market is patience. Hold high quality companies which pay a regular dividend (preferably with a high dividend yield), don’t fret about market swings, and patiently collect your dividend payments.   

Friday, April 27, 2018

Gold: Pricing vs. Value and Fundamental Look on Technicals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold behaves like a currency. This has extremely important consequence: gold cannot be valued like assets which generate cash flows or even as commodities whose value can be at least estimated looking at the balance of demand and supply. Does it mean that gold is a mere speculation play? No! You have to remember that gold belongs to the currencies. As they have no cash flows, they cannot be valued, but they can be priced against other currencies.

The same applies to gold. It has no “true” which value we can estimate and to which it should converge. On the contrary, the price is the only real number we have and can act on. We see lot analysts who try to estimate the value of gold based on some links – which are allegedly set in stone – between the price of gold and the money supply or the level of the federal debt. And they estimate the “fair” value of gold at either $500 or $20,000. It’s a pure nonsense.

Friday, April 27, 2018

Currency Wars: The Race to the Bottom has Begun / Currencies / Currency War

By: Richard_Mills

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.
If trade wars and actual shooting wars (Syria, Yemen) weren't enough for the world economy to worry about, pressuring stock markets and threatening to derail robust global economic growth, there is another elephant in the room looking to stomp on traders, investors and everyday consumers, and that is a currency war.

What is a currency war?

A currency war is what happens when countries intentionally devalue their currencies through their central banks. Increasing the money supply lowers interest rates and the value of the currency, thereby depressing the exchange rate. The best example of this type of expansionary monetary policy is that of the United States Federal Reserve. The Fed buys Treasury notes from its member banks, giving them more money to lend. To do this, the Fed must print more US dollars. The idea is to stimulate demand by reducing lending rates and therefore entice businesses and individuals to borrow and spend more money. Until last September, when the Fed wound up its last round of quantitative easing, this policy led to rock-bottom interest rates and has been behind the record-setting highs hit on US stock markets. Low interest rates mean companies can borrow, expand and grow, thus boosting profits and share prices.

Friday, April 27, 2018

NASDAQ NDX Was Amazon'd / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are bouncing along just under yesterday’s closing price. The structure of the decline (circled) is fractally similar to the initial decline from the 2801.90 peak. Wave [a] of 1 of (3) is approximately double the size of Wave [a] of 1 of (1). Should it maintain a similar dimension, Wave [c] should break the lower trendline of the Broadening Wedge. Remember, fractals are self-similar and repetitive. The Elliott rule of alternation offers enough variation within each structure to appear different from the last.

Friday, April 27, 2018

Stock Market Waterfall Decline Ahead - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: David_Morgan

David Morgan says the U.S. stock market is in a downtrend. A waterfall decline is possible.

Gold and silver are still in consolidation. However, the gold/silver ratio is coming down. And both metals continue to make higher lows. Morgan expects a move to the upside.

Is silver in a deficit? This depends on your definition of “deficit.” The truth is, the above ground inventory of silver is growing.

Friday, April 27, 2018

How to Trade Stock Indexes with Fibonacci / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One very important component of the continued research we, www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, conduct into price, price patterns and price rotation is the study and application of Fibonacci price modeling.  As you have seen with some of our other charting and modeling tools, we have invested a great deal of time and energy to create useful price modeling tools to assist us in our daily research and analysis.

Our Fibonacci price modeling tool is another adaptive learning model that is capable of adapting to price rotation by learning from past and current price variances as well as repeated price pattern formations.  This tool is a one of a kind type of project that we covet with a great deal of respect.

Friday, April 27, 2018

Will Tree Protests Fell Sheffield Labour City Council? Local Election Results Forecast 2018 / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections

By: N_Walayat

The local elections will be held in less than 1 weeks time on the 3rd of May 2018 when 1/3rd of Sheffield's city council seats will be up for election, that's 28 out of a total of 84 seats. The current make up of the council has the Labour party on 56 seats resulting in an commanding majority of 28. Which means that the Labour council can do whatever it wants regardless of electoral consequences, and when criticised for some of their crackpot actions such as signing a contract with a Spanish owned contractor to fell HALF of Sheffield's street trees, tends to respond with the fact that the people of Sheffield voted for them.

Friday, April 27, 2018

Blockchain Thrives in Online Gambling / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Thursday, April 26, 2018

The Inflation-Driven Stocks Rally To All Time Highs Has Begun / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

As I predicted three weeks ago, stocks have begun their move to new all-time highs.

The reason?

Inflation. Stocks LOVE inflation at first. But that relationship quickly goes sour once inflation results in rising operational costs that eat into profits.

Thursday, April 26, 2018

US Dollar Soaring With Gold Eagles, What Does it Mean? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

• Natural gas making a quick, unexpected setup and move.
• Equities finally show fear and panic today for a pivot low to be in place.
• The dollar continues to climb while all other currencies fall.