Saturday, April 25, 2020

Deflationary Psychology Versus the Fed: Here’s the Likely Winner / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Weeks before the February top in the DJIA, the January Elliott Wave Theorist (Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter's monthly publication about financial markets and social trends since 1979) said:

Most economists believe the Fed can prevent financial crises and depressions. [EWI's analysts] disagree. Socionomic theory proposes that naturally fluctuating waves of social mood regulate financial optimism and the economy. They are unconscious and cannot be managed. [emphasis added]

In case you're unfamiliar with socionomic theory, socionomics is the study of how society's changes in mood motivate social actions in realms that include the economy, political preferences, financial markets, actions of peace and war, and the fads and fashions of popular culture. Robert Prechter began formulating socionomic theory in 1976.

Friday, April 24, 2020

UK Covid-19 Deaths are REAL Extra Deaths, Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My last analysis (Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?) focused on answering the question are Covid-19 real extra deaths or are they people who would have died anyway. The answer to which was expected to be in the weekly total registered death statistics as published by the ONS Where my analysis concluded in a central expectation for the number of total UK deaths registered for the week ending 3rd April to jump by 44%. And for every percentage below then Covid-19 could be deemed to be less significant, but for every percentage above then would deem to be more deadly.

Friday, April 24, 2020

Coronapocalypse Is Deeper than the Great Recession. Will Gold Shine Even More? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The recent economic reports show that the current coronavirus crisis will be bigger than the Great Recession. What does it imply for the gold market?

US Economic Data Paints a Gloomy Picture

This week was full of new reports about the US economy. And guess what, I don’t have good news… First of all, let’s start with the update about the weekly initial unemployment benefits. In normal times, the initial claims are not too keenly watched by investors. But in times of a pandemic, they are very informative. The spike in the initial claims may even become the symbol of this crisis. Anyway, the number of new claims for the unemployment benefits declined from 6.6 million in the previous week to 5.2 million in the week from April 4 to April 11, as the chart below shows.

Friday, April 24, 2020

US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The past few weeks and months have been very interesting to see how the global central banks and governments have attempted to position themselves ahead of this COVID-19 virus event.  We continue to suggest that we are just starting the process of navigating through this potentially destructive virus event.  We believe the sudden onset of the virus pandemic has sent a shock-wave throughout the globe in terms of expectations and valuations that are, just now, starting to become “real”.  Let us try to explain our thinking and how this relates to Real Estate…

Before we continue much further, we suggest taking a moment to review our previous research articles related to the Real Estate market which we predicted the selloff and falling values. Both of these articles were at the top of the Yahoo finance and Google with hundreds of thousands the week we posted them:

Friday, April 24, 2020

Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

After a long term bear market in most commodity related stocks we are starting to hear analyst talk about inflation. From a Chartology perspective the deflationary scenario is still in play but how much lower can this sector go? In tonights Weekend Report, I’m going to update some long term commodity charts we’ve been following for years to see where they are currently trading in their bear cycle.

Lets begin by looking at one of the most widely followed commodity indexes the CRB. This 20 year monthly chart clearly shows the bear market began in July of 2008 which puts the age of its bear market at 12 years and counting. The initial crash, out of the 2008 high, was the same crash that the stock markets and PM complex experienced. The countertrend rally out of the 2009 crash low setup the next important high in the ongoing bear market which was the 5 year H&S consolidation pattern. The impulse move out of that 5 year H&S consolidation pattern took the CRB index down to the January 2016 low where we saw another countertrend rally that concluded in May of 2018 forming the head of the 4 year H&S consolidation pattern. The H&S neckline gave way in February of this year and has reached the minimum H&S price objective at 134.23. The CRB index has now reached an important point within its impulse move down where we could see either another small consolidation pattern start forming, similar to the blue expanding triangle halfway pattern in 2005, or some type of reversal pattern.

Friday, April 24, 2020

Stock Market 40 Year Cycle - 1980 Part 2? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Submissions

We are tracking the 1980 correction in relation to the ongoing correction today. Thus far, the two have been shockingly similar.

1980 SHARE MARKET CHART 40 YEAR CYCLE

Thursday, April 23, 2020

US and UK Government Response to Coronavirus is Like RABBITS in the HEADLIGHTS! / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

RABBITS IN THE HEADLIGHTS are the UK and US Government Response to Covid-19. Nearly always acting about 6 weeks after they should have done so and only then when in the midst of a panic, likely due to being advised by mad scientists who should not have been let out of their ivory towers!

They do not have a clue, not a single clue whatsoever, literally are rabbits in the headlights cannot even understand the most basic aspects of what's taking place. If anything should come out of this crisis than it should be less reliance on governments! Though I fear the exact opposite may transpire as governments use the pandemic to expand their reach into every aspect of ordinary citizens lives which does not bode well for the next crisis!

Thursday, April 23, 2020

Clapping for the NHS Heroes, Clap for Carers From Sheffield Across the UK Sound / Politics / NHS

By: Eliza_Walayat

Eliza joins the rest of Britain at 8'oclock to clap for the NHS heroes, clap for carers from Sheffield as the sound of clapping, banging of pots and pans, whistles and fireworks echo across the UK every Thursday night.

Even so the fact we have to do so is a sign of gross government negligence in the handing of the pandemic. None of which should have happened as Taiwan and South Korea illustrate.

Thursday, April 23, 2020

How Chart Price Gaps Help Market Traders Hit the "TARGET" of Opportunity / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

As many of us continue the process of working from home, isolated with young children and significant others day in and day out, the subject of price gaps feels paradoxically fitting.

Here's why: After countless hours of sharing the same tight-knit space of finger-painting on the walls, dirty dishes, and zero social outlet, in comes your partner. You nervously ask, "Are you okay?" To which she replies with the most frightening of all four-letter "F" words,

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

The Coming Impact of Coronavirus Economic Contraction in ASEAN Countries / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dan_Steinbock

After the COVID-19 earthquake and a historical contraction, China is rebounding, whereas advanced economies face a depression-like plunge. The consequent tsunami is about to hit Southeast Asia.

As the total number of confirmed cases may exceed 3 million and deaths will surpass 200,000 in a matter of days, the U.S. and Europe account for more than 80% % of both. What was an epidemic in China at the turn of January and February grew into a pandemic in the 1st quarter, thanks to the belated mobilizations in Europe and the US.

As I predicted in a mid-March briefing (TMT, March 23), what is about to follow is the great coronavirus contraction. Its economic impact will be comparable to the 1930s Great Depression. With more data available today, we have a better idea what’s about to happen, despite extraordinary uncertainty.

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Central Banks Fire Bazooka at Coronavirus. Will Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The new coronavirus has already infected the global economy. The global lockdown means that recession is inevitable. The central banks all over the world have stepped in, including the Fed, cutting interest rates and pumping liquidity into the system. We invite you thus to read our today’s article about the monetary policy in time of plague and find out what the fresh central banks’ bazookas imply for the global economy and the gold market.

The new coronavirus has already infected the global economy. The global lockdown means that recession is inevitable. The central banks all over the world have stepped in, cutting interest rates and pumping liquidity into the system.

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Coronavirus Burning Down the House / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: James_Quinn

Watch out you might get what you’re after

Hold tight wait till the party’s over
Hold tight We’re in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house

Talking Heads – Burning Down the House

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Bob Moriarty's Thoughts on the Coronavirus / Politics / Coronavirus Depression

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321gold shares his thoughts on the coronavirus.

If there was ever a time for real leaders to step forward and lead, the last four months would have been the time to do so. If there was an issue that demanded cooperation from all the nations of the world, we have seen it. Instead we have been fed a steady diet of disinformation and outright lies from almost every government at most levels. If these are the leaders, we ought to fire the whole lot and start anew. Instead of "women and children first," we are seeing "every man for himself."

I've been fairly quiet for the last ten days or so and a lot of people have been bugging me to write more. Certainly this is an important issue so I'll give you my thoughts.

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Tips for Managing Your Personal Budget During Coronavirus / Personal_Finance / Financial Education

By: Submissions

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Silver Charts Say $5 Or Lower Is Coming / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Even the most casual silver investor must be discouraged with what has happened to silver prices recently. But what about those who were/are super bullish? How do they feel?

As I read various reports and articles, I sense some back peddling on the more extreme predictions which were so prevalent just shortly more than a month ago. On the other hand, I also sense a reluctance to let go; to just admit they were wrong and move on.

Experiencing the reality of silver’s price decline of more than one-third in barely three weeks has left its mark in ways that cannot be ignored. It is ignored, though. And when it isn’t ignored, it is excused; or explained in terms that are supposed to make you feel better, but somehow make you feel worse.

Rather than rehash all of the depressing details verbally, I thought it might be a good idea to look at some silver charts which give us pictures of the damage that has been inflicted on a technical basis.

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Twice as Many Customers: Lead Acquisition Algorithms / Companies / Marketing

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Tilda tests

With the help of Google Analytics and the Tilda site builder, we can experiment and test various changes on the site, and then transfer them to the main one. 

The essence of the method is to measure page performance using comparison. You need to create two pages: A - control, B - experimental, where you change some parameters (picture, title, button, etc.).

One-half of the customers demonstrate page A, the second. In essence, B. Next, evaluate where the goal (subscription, order, etc.) is achieved more often, that is, which of the pages is more conversion.

If you dig deeper, you can look at the analytics and identify the reasons why users do not make a purchase/subscription. If you can develop cheap hypotheses and implement them in 1-2 weeks, you can quickly increase the conversion by at least 1%.

This method of A/B testing is also acceptable for your MVP.

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

7 Stock Market Myths to Watch Out For / Stock-Markets / Investing 2020

By: Travis_Bard

There are a lot of myths and rumors floating around when it comes to investing. If you’re going to invest, it’s important that you know the difference between fact and fiction. To help you, here are seven of the biggest myths about investing and the stock market.

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

The Fed Induced Stock Market Twilight-Zone / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The past three weeks have been filled with intense drama, incredible highs and lows, political battles that continue to this day, and millions of questions from people throughout the world.  Throughout this COVID-19 virus event and the collapse of the US and global markets, one continued belief has prevailed – the US Fed will attempt to rescue the global markets (again).

Late last week, President Trump announced a task force to evaluate how and when to reopen the US economy and more than US nine states have already committed to a staged reopening process.  COVID-19 virus being what it is, the US is going to attempt to lead the way forward.  This means every resource and every effort will be taken to engage in a proper process to protect our future while battling this virus outbreak.

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

A Massive Gold Bull Market Building / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Imagine, if you will, there was no coronavirus. No haz-mat suits, medical masks & gloves, no make-shift morgues. No terminally ill patients hooked up to ventilators, no horrible deaths without love ones close, no lockdowns, no social distancing, no deserted streets, no bailouts, no emergency wage supplements, just a regular spring with birds chirping and flowers blooming. 

Of course there is no getting away from the covid-19 pandemic that has slammed into populations and economies like a “God of chaos” comet. It seems to have permeated civilization, threatening lives, livelihoods, and the way we conduct ourselves professionally and socially. 

I’d just like to put it into perspective, by looking back at where we were, before all this madness began. Because in the wise words of philosopher George Santayana, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” 

It is tempting, while still in the thick of the pandemic, to don rose-colored glasses, but weeks before the onset of covid-19, we were writing how things were not going as well as they appeared, with the global economy. 

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Bending the Inflation Curve / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

Our responses to the coronavirus threat, necessary though they may be, are creating massive supply and demand shocks, the rapidity of which is like nothing seen in centuries, if ever.

The Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing unprecedented things. Some think inflation will be the result. While that may happen eventually, I believe we will first go through the most massive deflationary shock of all time.

Milton Friedman famously said, “… inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” During the timeframe in which he and his colleague Anna Schwartz did their famous study, there was clearly a correlation between money supply and inflation. What is not often noted is that the velocity of money (i.e., the rate at which money changes hands) was stable during that time.