Saturday, October 03, 2015

The Secret About Amazon's Success / Companies / Internet

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Which company is a better investment, Google or Amazon.com? Conventional wisdom suggests Google, which turns huge profits, enjoys better gross margins, and has a far lower price-to-earnings ratio. Yet Amazon’s stock has returned 62.6 percent in the past year, compared with 9.6 percent for Google.

Saturday, October 03, 2015

The Oil Industry’s Day of Reckoning / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Investment_U

Ryan Fitzwater writes: Squeezed for cash and sweating...

That is the state of oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) companies as they enter October.

Our chart above shows just how overleveraged the industry has become in relation to other sectors. On average, E&Ps have 20 times as much debt compared to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) brought in over the last 12 months.

Saturday, October 03, 2015

U.S. Interest Rate Hikes Keep On Slippin' Into the Future; Treasury Yields Sink Again / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Treasury Yields Drop Again

Curve Watcher's Anonymous notes a further plunge in yields today following the disastrous payroll and factory order reports.

Yield on the 30-year long bond fell to 2.80% from 2.85% yesterday. Yield on the 10-year note once again sports a 1-handle at 1.97%, down from 2.03%.

Saturday, October 03, 2015

Economic Free Fall....Pessimism Screaming Higher....No Rate Hike Coming Any Time Soon.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

The market action had been better the last couple of days. Even with a very bad ISM Manufacturing Report number yesterday, the market was able to hang in rather well. Makes sense on some level, since there's that push-pull going on between pessimism and fundamentals. The market had hoped that we'd see a push higher off a solid jobs report this morning pre-market. Wasn't in the cards.

Saturday, October 03, 2015

China's Stock Market Crashing; Time for Panic or Restraint / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Sol_Palha

Fortune always fights on the side of the prudent. ~ Critias

Lately one cynic after another, some of which claim to be experts are all marching to the same drumbeat. The Chinese economy is in trouble; the Chinese markets are going to continue crashing. The Shanghai index experienced an astounding advance over a brief period of time and so it should not have come as a surprise that such a stupendous rally would culminate with an equally brutal correction. The Doctors of gloom and doom are over doing it and this was our recent response to our subscribers.

Friday, October 02, 2015

SPX Stocks Bulls Struggle to Regain the Upper hand... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX appears to have formed either a Broadening Wedge (Target ~ 1522.00) or an Orthodox Broadening formation (Target ~ 1458.00). SPX may ramp all the way to its Intermediate-term resistance at 1937.31 before rolling back over, should the second formation prevail. There are tremendous market forces at war with one another, but ultimately the trend wins.

Friday, October 02, 2015

The Two Faces of Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

Which one should you heed?

Volatility, volatility, volatility. It's all the financial world can talk about lately... and, well, for good reason. In the past few months, the world's stock markets have endured some of the most gut-wrenching price swings since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

But for many investors, it's still not clear what this volatility means for the status of the bull market in U.S. stocks.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Money Supply and the Fed’s Serious Inflation Risks / Stock-Markets / Inflation

By: Zeal_LLC

Traders today universally believe inflation is dead, that there is no persistent decline in the purchasing power of money.  That’s what government price indexes around the world are indicating.  But this false notion is one of recent years’ main Fed-conjured illusions.  Price inflation is the result of rising money supplies, and they have been skyrocketing.  Serious risks are mounting that they will spill into price levels.

As simple as money seems, it is very complex in both theory and practice.  We all understand the idea of working to earn money to buy goods and services.  But the seminal treatise on money, the legendary economist Ludwig von Mises’ “The Theory of Money and Credit” published in 1912, weighed in at 445 pages!  Money is a topic that endlessly preoccupies elite central bankers with doctorates in economics.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Stock Market How Bad Can This Get, And How Fast? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There’s so much negative real bad economic and financial news out there that it’s hard to choose a ‘favorite’, but I guess I’m going to have to go with what underlies and ‘structures’ it all, the IIF stating that for the first time since 1988 and the Reagan presidency, there’s more money flowing out of emerging markets than there’s flowing in. That is for sure a watershed moment. 

And no, that trend is not going to be reversed either anytime soon. Emerging economies, even if they wouldn’t include China -but they do-, have relied exclusively on selling ‘stuff’ to the rich world which combined cheap commodities with cheap labor, and now they see their customer base shrink rapidly just as they were preparing to harvest the big loot. 

Friday, October 02, 2015

Stocks Bull Market - We Have Some Bad News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Casey_Research

By Justin Spittler

The stock market just finished a brutal third quarter…

The S&P 500 fell 8%...and so did the Dow and the NASDAQ. It was the worst quarter for U.S. stocks since 2011.

Friday, October 02, 2015

A Worrying Set Of Recession Signals / Economics / Recession 2015

By: John_Mauldin

By John Mauldin

There is presently a bull market in complacency. There are very few alarm bells going off anywhere; and frankly, in reaction to my own personal complacency, I have my antenna up for whatever it is I might be missing that would indicate an approaching recession.

It was very easy to call the last two recessions well in advance because we had inverted yield curves. In the US at least, that phenomenon has a perfect track record of predicting recessions. The problem now is that, with the Federal Reserve holding the short end of the curve at the zero bound, there is no way we can get an inverted yield curve, come hell or high water. For the record, inverted yield curves do not cause recessions, they simply indicate that something is seriously out of whack with the economy. Typically, a recession shows up three to four quarters later.

Friday, October 02, 2015

U.S. Rake Hike - Fed Must Thank China and EM / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

The US September jobs report deals a significant blow to the notion of a 2015 Fed hike--against which we consistently disagreed throughout the year - as it achieved the gloomy feat of disappointing across the board -- headline rate (first back-to-back months of sub 200K in 18 months), downward revision in prior months (-59K), notable decline in average hourly earnings, and the unchanged unemployment rate was offset by the decline in the participation rate to a fresh 38-year lows.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Stock Market Tinder Box / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

We have been using the Tinder Box theme in NFTRH lately.  As in, stock market sentiment is so bleak, so depressed as to be a Tinder Box with the elements to ignite a flame that bounces the market, to clear the over bearishness at least.

We  have successfully followed a plan every step of the way… 1. down from the August breakdown, 2. up on the bounce to SPX 1975 or 2040 (hit 2020) and now 3. down to a test of the October 2014 / August 2015 lows, which is a decision point between a bounce or an entry into a bear market (by making a lower low to October 2014).

Friday, October 02, 2015

The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: MISES

Yonathan Amselem writes: Last year, the world was stunned by an IMF report which found the Chinese economy larger and more productive than that of the United States, both in terms of raw GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP). The Chinese people created more goods and had more purchasing power with which to obtain them — a classic sign of prosperity. At the same time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite more than doubled in value since October of 2014. This explosion in growth was accompanied by a post-recession construction boom that rivals anything the world has ever seen. In fact, in the three years from 2011 – 2013, the Chinese economy consumed more cement than the United States had in the entire twentieth century. Across the political spectrum, the narrative for the last fifteen years has been that of a rising Chinese hyperpower to rival American economic and cultural influence around the globe. China’s state-led “red capitalism” was a model to be admired and even emulated.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Gold and Silver End-Quarter Influences / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

In a generally quiet week, gold and silver prices were marked down in thin trade towards the quarter-end, when traders make up their books, with gold falling $32 to $1114.5, and silver by 58 cents by the close on Thursday night. Prices opened lower in early European trade, with gold less than $10 from the $1100 level.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Negative Jobs Report Sents SPX, TNX Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The best proxy for the Monthly Jobs Report is TNX, because bonds start trading around 8:15. As you can see, it had a horrible miss, only 142,000 new jobs reported in August. The consensus expectation was 215,000.

The CES Birth/Death Model report has just been updated, showing a loss of 34,000 fictitious jobs in September. This statistic is made up out of thin air. But the August payroll number has also been revised downward. It is possible that the US has seen negative job growth for the first time in memory.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Don't be Fooled by the Recent Equity market Rallies. Its a Bear Market, Stupid! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Brian_Bloom

The daily chart below, of the Dow Jones Industrial Index, shows a significant technical non-confirmation: The On Balance Volume segment of the chart has been falling in the face of a rising Index, which indicates that sellers have been taking advantage of rising prices in the past couple of weeks to increase the rate at which they have been offloading their stocks.

Friday, October 02, 2015

U.S. Three Month Treasury Yields Turn Negative, Recession Warning? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Curve Watcher's Anonymous points out 3-month treasury yields dipped briefly negative on several days recently.

Yield on the 3-month bond was negative again today. Here is a table I put together with Treasury Yield Quotes from Bloomberg.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Knockout Punch for Gold Bugs / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Two months ago the precious metals complex became extremely oversold and ripe for a rebound. Two months later and the overbought condition and bearish sentiment has been alleviated to some degree. Sadly for bulls, Gold barely rebounded while both Silver and gold miners performed worse. The broad precious metals sector appears to be in position for a breakdown that could be a knockout blow to gold bulls and gold bugs.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Rates In This World? Everything Going Wrong At Once Edition / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Rubino

After the markets failed to embrace its most recent interest rate dither, the Fed dispatched pretty much its entire PR team to make sure we understood that rates would rise Next Month For Sure.

Then everything kind of fell apart. Emerging market capital flight accelerated…