Stock Market VERY IMPORTANT Turn Date
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Oct 07, 2015 - 02:20 PM GMT
It appears that I was closer to the truth than I had imagined when I said that yesterday’s (today’s) Pivot was more important than that on September 17. The Elliott Wave pattern shows today’s Intermediate Wave (B) as the orthodox retracement top, but not the high in the corrective formation. This is an irregular pattern and gives the message that SPX may be ready for a larger decline than previously imagined.
This is also the reason for VIX’s impulse down without making a new low. Cyclically, the retracement high must be less than 30 days from the new low (and vice-versa) to qualify for a Cyclical change of trend. September 17 was 24 days from the SPX low and VIX high, so that date marks the low in VIX , but not the end of the corrective formation.
This is very tricky stuff, but it helps to know some of the rules and guidelines.
The Dow Jones Industrials did make a new high at 16963.00 today and challenged both the Cycle Top at 16854.00 and its 50-day Moving Average at 16761.00.
In this case, reaching its Cyclical target appears to override the time constraints in this case. Note that the SPX did not reach its Cycle Top and the VIX did not reach its Cycle Bottom.
But it doesn’t stop yesterday’s new and corrective high from taking place in the Hi-Lo Index. Fortunately, the sell signal is activated at -19.66. That could easily be activated yet today.
The new high in TNX puts a different Elliott Wave pattern on it. Yesterday was day 43 from the August 24 low, just the same as SPX. However, today marks the Primary Cycle high in USB, which appears to take precedence.
Commodities (including gold and crude oil) have rolled over without making new highs. They now appear capable of making new lows, as well.
Regards,
Tony
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