Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Fed Induced Bond Bubble Will Devastate Financial System - Video / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble
Transcript Excerpt:Hi it's a Tuesday April 26 2016 I'm gonna be talking about a subject a
little bit technical but I think people need to know about this and it's to do
with central banks and you know what the bond markets so in my opinion central
banks they planted or clean been planting the seeds of a bond market
meltdown with the zero interest rate policy and the negative interest rate
policy and by the bond markets I mean government bond markets which are
supposedly risk-free assets are not of course and then corporate bonds you know
all kinds of ratings you know junk bonds but our focus on the bond market
government bond market because that's the biggest market in the world so the
policy observed with zero interest rates implemented through quantitative easing
and officially set raids has resulted in the bond market but never seen before in
the history of financial markets basically the only way to get interest
rates were is to buy bonds because the ruling bond bond prices and yields is
that the bond price goes up goes down if the deal goes up ...
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Cyber Fraud At SWIFT – $81 Million Stolen From Central Bank, Digital Gold / Stock-Markets / Cyber Crime
Swift, the vital global financial network that western financial services companies, institutions and banks use for all payments and transfer billions of dollars every day, warned its customers yesterday evening that it was aware of cyber fraud and a number of recent “cyber incidents” where attackers had sent fraudulent messages over its system and $81 million was apparently stolen from a central bank.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
How The Credit Markets Will Blow Up During The Coming Silver Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
During the previous silver bull market, interest rates and silver moved in the same direction (up). This makes sense, given the fact that silver and interest rates move together in the long run – for the last 100 years at least.
The current silver bull market (since 2001) has seen a big divergence between silver prices and interest rates. Below, is a comparison of interest rates and silver prices since 1962:
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Technical Versus Fundamental Currency Analysis – What Is Better? / Currencies / Forex Trading
There are so many questions that appear when you start to analyze currencies. Many do not even properly understand what this actually is. We end up looking at terms that we never heard about and do not really know what to do.The problem is that currency market analysis is paramount to the success of any currency based investment. You simply cannot focus on currencies and make a profit in the event that you do not know exactly what the market is like, how it operates and what will happen in the future. Most people do not have the luxury of using automated systems or do not want to. You can see this platform as an example of an automated signal based trading system. This is an option but since you are here, you surely want to do your own analysis.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $48.56 and initial downside target at $35.24) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil increased after the market's open, approaching Thursday's high, the commodity gave up some gains in the following hours weakened by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed another day under the resistance line. Will it be strong enough to stop oil bulls in the coming days?
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Forbidden History - The 1916 Irish Uprising against British Imperialism / Politics / UK Politics
With the Easter Rising of 1916, the world was introduced to the eulogy of Pax Britannica. Much like the coercion used by the Roman Empire, the British Crown were masters at colonial repression and exploitation of royal holdings. The long strained history between the Emerald Isle and the City of London dates back many centuries. From the punitive exploits of Oliver Cromwell to the use of the Auxiliary Division of the Royal Irish Constabulary (ADRIC), the shrift shed blood on both sides. Independence comes at a high price when the imperium masters dig in to keep their rule in place.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Madness in the Crimex Gold and Silver Trading Pits / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Michael Ballanger Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses effects of the Bank of Japan's actions on the U.S. dollar, silver and gold
The "big story" circulating around the blogosphere yesterday and last evening was a paper authored by Pimco' s "strategist" Harley Bassman that essentially opined that "the Fed should unleash a massive Fed gold purchase program that could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy." Well, isn't that original? Back in 2013 I reviewed Michael Lewis' follow-up to "The Big Short," a brilliant piece of work entitled "Boomerang—Travels in the New Third World" where Lewis interviews a Deputy Finance Minister at the German Bundesbank who told Lewis that because Germany had 3,390.6 tonnes of gold, its entire government debt was "covered." At the time, I was listening to the audiobook while on a treadmill and I actually had a Eureka moment and immediately texted myself a reminder to make that the central theme of the weekend note to clients, which I did.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Britain's Prospects: GBP and BREXIT - MAP Wave Analysis / Currencies / British Pound
This base chart is readily available on the internet and I cannot find a source for it so, can't vouch for its accuracy suffice to say it follows MWA and MAP wave count which is beyond coincidence, and is an excellent demonstration of the fractal nature of waves! This highlights how context to analysis is gained and the importance of data for analysis.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Stock Market Holding Up...Bears Simply Have Nothing.....Fed On Deck... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The market tried once again to sell today, but again the selling was nothing to talk about. The market was down decently during the trading day, but the buyers, as usual, stepped back in with authority and kept the losses quite small. The market is trying to unwind overbought oscillators with the normal, no-price depreciation set-up, which is basically all we ever see. That's classic bull-market behavior. Seven year's worth for the most part. Nothing has changed. It really is the same old. In fact, this newsletter is the same old. There's never really anything new or interesting to talk about. Any time we try to swell, the buyers come in, etc. No sustained selling other than very brief periods for seven full years with no end on the horizon. Buyers are trained to step in and buy every time we sell some.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
CRB, Gold, Oil, Cotton, Coffee - 7 Must See Commodities Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Commodities are in a positive cycle. It is too early to tell whether the long term bear market is over, but short and medium term momentum is clearly in favor of commodity bulls.
In this article, we revise 7 must-see charts covering the commodities complex, which reveal current and future investment opportunities.
First, the CRB commodoties index bottomed in January of this year. At that point in time, sentiment was even worse than during the depth of the 2008 financial crisis. The first chart shows how bad sentiment was in the last months of 2015 / early January 2016, see lower pane. Consequently, the upside potential is enormous as commodities are currently nowhere near positive sentiment levels.
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Monday, April 25, 2016
Disenfranchising Large Segments of Americans / Politics / Social Issues
Several hundred thousand American citizens won’t be voting in presidential primary elections—and it’s not their fault.
In Pennsylvania, for example, a registered voter who needed an absentee ballot had to submit the request at least one full week before the election, and then return the ballot no less than four days before the election.
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Monday, April 25, 2016
Gold Price Target is $3,000 and Silver is $75 per Ounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Precious metals have posted their best quarter in nearly 30 years and mining stocks are soaring from oversold multi-year lows. Those that were willing to buy when everyone else was selling have been handsomely rewarded in 2016. But we believe the gains are just getting started.
After such a huge move to start the year, many have been anticipating a sharp pullback for gold and silver on profit taking. This would make sense, especially considering the record short positions by commercial traders. Plus, nothing goes straight up, not even deeply oversold assets awakening from a 4-year correction. It is almost always a roller coaster ride.
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Monday, April 25, 2016
It’s Waayyy Too Early to Take Profits on Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
It was no fun investing in precious metals for most of 2011-2015, but the past few months have sure been a blast for buy-and-hold investors. Silver prices are 22.5% year to date, and gold isn’t far behind.
Now that there are some profits available to take, some metals investors wonder if they should grab them. The answer for most people is not yet -- not even close.
Yes, there are gains. But the real question for investors isn’t whether or not there are profits, it’s whether there are better options for their investment dollars. What other assets have a better risk/reward profile? Cash? Stocks? Bonds? No thank you!
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Monday, April 25, 2016
Parameters for a Stock Market Sell Signal-in-the-making / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
SPX bounced off both Short-term support and the rally trendline. At the time of the bounce, support was at 2077.37. There appears to be one more probe, possibly to 2088.00 to complete the retracement from today’s decline.
Friday’s bounce appears to be a 37.7% retracement of Wave (i). I wonder what happened to those 80-90% retracements?
An aggressive sell signal may be given once the trendline and Short-term support, now at 2078.20 are crossed. Further confirmation may be had at the mid-cycle support line at 2072.14.
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Monday, April 25, 2016
US Bonds Nearing Their All-time High / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
USB futures are lingering at their lows from Friday. The Cycles Model suggests a Trading cycle low may be made at any time in the next 72 hours. What may follow is a ramp to the average target of the Bullish Flag formation.
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Monday, April 25, 2016
US Debt Hotel California or the Hotel Marriner Eccles / Interest-Rates / US Debt
In 1977 the Eagles spoke to us about “Hotel California.” Lyrics are here.
A few lines from the song …
“On a dark desert highway, cool wind in my hair…
Up ahead in the distance I saw a shimmering light…
Then I was thinking to myself this could be Heaven or this could be Hell…
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Monday, April 25, 2016
Is July 5th the Next Stock Market Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The chart below shows a repeating pattern of 115 trading day tops on the S&P 500 virtually shadowing the 100 trading day cycle to cycle lows. The 100 TD lows can run anywhere between 85 and 115 trading days. This low is commonly referred to as the 20-week low. The 20-week low is half of the dominant 9-month low that usually runs about 40 weeks .
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Monday, April 25, 2016
Stock Market S&P 500 Below 2,100 Mark - Uptrend Reversal Or Just Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, April 25, 2016
2.8 Million Bank Switches Create Current Account Storm / Personal_Finance / Current Accounts
In previous years banking customers have had little incentive to switch their current account, but since the launch of the Current Account Switch Guarantee in 2013, almost three million people have ditched their old account*. As a result, a veritable current account storm has been created as providers compete to attract new customers.
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Monday, April 25, 2016
Interesting Silver Debate: Do Old Indicators Matter Or Is Physical About To Overrun Paper? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
For as long as most gold and silver investors can remember, the paper markets — that is, banks and speculators placing bets with futures contracts — have set the price of those metals. And within the paper markets, “the commercials” — fabricators and big banks — have time-and-gain fooled speculators like hedge funds into piling in (both long and short) at exactly the wrong time.
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