Monday, September 19, 2016

‘Hard’ Brexit Looms For Ireland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

The risks that a ‘hard’ Brexit will have for Ireland has been outlined by economist Dan O’Brien. Having once worked for the European Commission as the EU mission’s economic and political affairs officer for Malta and having worked on a free trade deal, his opinions are worth noting.

O’Brien outlines the risks on the horizon in the Sunday Independent and the article is well worth a read as it highlights the risks posed by Brexit to the Irish economy.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Yellen’s Footnote 8 Would Put Interest Rates on Autopilot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech was widely reported, so I’ll spare you the summary.

What wasn’t widely reported was her Footnote 8. Yellen cited approving a mathematical formula that could put interest rates on autopilot. The Fed hasn’t yet followed the rule, but its presence in Yellen’s paper suggests its use is on the table.

Monday, September 19, 2016

UK Government Surrenders to China / France to Build Nuclear Fukushima Plant At Hinkley Point C / Politics / Nuclear Power

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Theresa May's government has once more shown its inherent weakness where after putting the French / Chinese Hinkley Point C nuclear build on hold in July has now backed down under Chinese threats of withholding investments by giving the go ahead to build a nuclear reactor that had never been proven to actually work with potentially disastrous consequences for our small densely populated Island.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Last Week's Uncertainty, But Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, September 19, 2016

Dramatic Falls in UK Savings Interest Rates / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Savings Trends Treasury Report data, yet to be published, highlights that long-term fixed rate bonds and ISAs have fallen, with long-term fixed rate ISAs falling for 11 consecutive months, plummeting to all-time lows yet again.

Monday, September 19, 2016

More Stock Market Selling Monday? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

It looks like that we should have more selling early Monday in the stock market according to the extremes of the 4 TD low combined with the current bearish wave action and negative astros. There is a rising wedge that meets near 2110 Monday. I'm not sure we tag that or not, but in any case there should be a strong rally Monday out of this sell-off according to the cycles.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Stock Market Correction Already Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening.  Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend:  The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase.

 Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

American Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton

Over the years, we have written multiple times about the system of Keynesian economics, its dysfunction, and the fact that it is a pure lie. This has all been well-documented from studies, observations, right down to remarks made by Keynes himself regarding the long-term viability of his new faux economics.

However, from Keynesian economics, there has morphed another type of economics. A more ignorant and destructive type of scarce resource allocation – which is what economics really is after all – and this type is no respecter of persons, intellect, position, or influence. We could easily call it the economics of entitlement, but that would be misleading because when most think of entitlements, they think about Social Security, Medicare, and other government programs. No, that’s not where the sense of American (and global) entitlement ends. It ends with the average working stiff who is paying 20% on a $40,000 / 7 -year truck loan with a balloon payment because his buddies told him he wasn’t cool if he didn’t have such a truck. There are zillions of other such examples of financial stupidity, however, nobody is bothering to tell these folks that they’re committing financial suicide. The banks certainly aren’t going to tell them. The government? Talk about the kettle and the pot. Or maybe there is too much legal pot. We certainly can’t legislate common sense, but we sure try to legislate away the consequences of foolish behavior.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Billionaire Donald Trump Says The Markets Are False And Will Collapse on January 1st / ElectionOracle / Financial Crash

By: Jeff_Berwick

This week Donald Trump said, “If it was a choice between the right decision and a political decision… The Fed would choose the political decision.”

He then stated that the market “will remain at artificially high levels until January 1st”. This came not long after he slammed Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen in a CNBC interview when he told the interviewer that she should be “ashamed” of her “very political” and “false” market.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

The President’s Physician Appears to be Babbling Incoherently / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Walter_Brasch

Hillary Clinton is recovering from a mild case of pneumonia. However, shortly after she collapsed at Ground Zero while part of the 15th annual memorial of 9/11, her campaign staff said she was just exhausted and suffered heat exhaustion. It took a couple of days for her to reveal the extent of her medical issue.

Donald Trump, who had many times this past year questioned Clinton’s health and suggested she should leave politics, now tweeted he was hoping his Democratic opponent would have a quick recovery. However, the Renegade Republicans, fueled by scandal-makers of the conservative media, think Clinton is a piñata, and are hitting her hard—she has Parkinson’s disease; she suffered from a concussion; the Democratic National Committee is working on how to replace her because she is so ill; she is on her death-bed, and a body double is the one the public is seeing.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Intel Corp. (INTC) / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: Donald_W_Dony

Company Profile: Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells integrated digital technology platforms worldwide. It operates through Client Computing Group, Data Center Group, Internet of Things Group, Software and Services, and All Other segments. The company's platforms are used in various computing applications comprising notebooks, 2 in 1 systems, desktops, servers, tablets, smartphones, wireless and wired connectivity products, wearables, retail devices, and manufacturing devices, as well as for retail, transportation, industrial, buildings, home use, and other market segments.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

New US Stock Market Uptrend Underway ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started with the SPX at 2128. After a gap down opening Monday the SPX hit 2119 then rallied to 2163 just before the close. On Tuesday another gap down opening took the SPX to 2120, then after a rally to 2141 on Wednesday the SPX hit 2120 again. On Thursday the SPX rallied to 2151, then gapped down again on Friday to 2131 before ending the week at 2139. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.60%. Three gap down openings and the market ended positive on the week. Economic reports for the week were predominantly negative. On the downtick: export prices, retail sales, NY FED, industrial production, capacity utilization, the Q3 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit increased. On the uptick: the Philly FED and the CPI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC and housing.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Fed Huffing and Puffing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: David_Chapman

Over the past few weeks a number of Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have mused about an interest rate hike at the September FOMC that takes place next week, on September 20-21, 2016. The interest rate decision comes out around 2 p.m. on September 21. It will be a much-watched announcement. Stocks, bonds and precious metals markets all reacted negatively to the musings when the fourth Fed official (including Yellen) since August 2016 mused about a hike. Despite labour numbers that appear to point to decent economic growth and an inflation rate (PCE Inflation) that hovers below the Fed’s target of 2%, the overall picture is not one of economic strength, with many indicators and numbers actually pointed down.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Stock Market Quiet Week...Volatile But Quiet... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The week was wild, but quiet when all was said and done. Last Friday saw a strong move lower with no follow-through to the down side this week by the bears. Nothing unusual about that. The bears haven't followed through meaningfully in longer than I can remember. That said, this week saw the market move mostly lateral, meaning the bulls didn't just blast things right back up as they usually do with no resistance from the bears. The bears are fighting a little bit. More than we've seen in recent months.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Stocks and Bonds - The Central Bankers' Experiment: The Great Bust / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Doug_Wakefield

The public enthusiasm, which had been so long rising, could not resist a vision so splendid. At least three hundred thousand applications were made of the fifty thousand new shares, and Law's house in the Rue de Quincampoix was beset from morning to night by the eager applicants."

The quote above is from McKay's classic, Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, found in the first chapter, "Money Mania – The Mississippi Scheme". The Mississippi Scheme reached its final "all time high" in January 1720, and Mackay wrote about this madness in 1841.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

SPX Sell Signals Are Intact / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is struggling to make a 50% retracement of this morning’s decline. It appears complete, but we cannot rule out an algo attack in the final minutes. SPX remains on a sell signal.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Practice, Practice, Practice Makes Perfect Elliott Wave Analysis / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

Tips on the best way to improve your wave-counting skills

In this new interview with our Senior Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy, he tells you about the four key principles that'll help improve your Elliott wave skills.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Why Has Gold Stalled? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s young bull market has totally stalled out in the past couple months.  This major loss of momentum following gold’s powerful surges in 2016’s first half is really souring sentiment and vexing traders.  They are trying to figure out if gold’s recent consolidation drift is the dawn of a new bearish trend or a healthy pause within an ongoing bull.  The likely answer comes from understanding what’s causing gold’s high consolidation.

Back in mid-December right after the Fed’s first rate hike in 9.5 years, gold slumped to a miserable new 6.1-year secular low.  That was driven by heavy gold-futures selling from speculators, who were utterly convinced higher rates are gold’s mortal nemesis.  But with bearishness so extraordinary and investors’ gold allocations so low, a mighty mean reversion higher for gold was very likely in 2016 as I wrote in late December.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Trump or HIlary? Which Presidents Have Been Best for the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In previous articles, we have examined the gold’s performance in different election cycle years. Now, we deepen our analysis and investigate the behavior of the shiny metal in each presidential cycle in more detail. We analyze how gold performed under each President and which governing party (or whether the new President is an incumbent or a newcomer) affects the gold market the most.

The first cycle ran from 1973 to 1976, when Richard Nixon (who in 1971 closed a gold window), and later, after the Watergate scandal, Gerald Ford were in office. As the gold standard was abandoned, while inflation and uncertainty surged, it was a good period for the shiny metal, which rallied 114.27 percent.

Friday, September 16, 2016

US Election 2016 - Why Your Vote Doesn’t Count / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: David_Galland

Dear Parade-Goers,

In our quest for perpetual summer, this week we are transitioning back to our Argentine home. As a result, I intend to be brief, though there are a couple of observations I want to share related to the pending US presidential election.

On the musical front, I am still mostly stuck on Dire Straits, a group I haven’t paid much attention to until recently. As the parade begins, I am teeing up the entire album of their greatest hits.