Saturday, December 11, 2021
What Happens to the Stock Market After a Bullish Stampede? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The bulls pumped up the market, but with fundamentals deteriorating and corporations largely responsible for the spike, regular investors will be left holding the bag.
With investors betting on a Santa Clause rally despite the deteriorating fundamentals, the S&P 500 helped the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks) outperform on Dec. 7. However, with short-covering and corporate buybacks primarily responsible for the daily spike, another ‘Minsky Moment’ could be on the horizon.
To explain, I wrote on Nov. 19:
While European markets have largely ignored the recent coronavirus spikes, a sharp sell-off could be the spark that lights the S&P 500’s correction. To explain, the DAX 30 Index (Germany) and the CAC 40 Index (France) both closed slightly lower on Nov. 18. However, prior to Nov. 18, the DAX 30 had closed in the green for 13 of the last 15 trading days, and one-upping its European counterpart, the CAC 40 had closed in the green for 15 of the last 16 trading days.
On top of that, the CAC 40 had an RSI (Relative Strength Index) north of 80, while the DAX 30 had an RSI north of 75. As a result, both indices are materially overbought at a time when Germany is implementing new restrictions. Thus, if a Minsky Moment strikes in Europe, don’t be surprised if the negativity cascades across the Atlantic.
Saturday, December 11, 2021
Inflationary Hubris, the Fed & Gold: Can Inflation Actually Be Good for Everyday Americans? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses Fed actions and how they affect precious metals.
I had thought that prior to this week, I had seen pretty much everything when it comes to the financial press shoveling out Wall Street “spin” in order to proper up the markets prior to the end-of-year bonus-calculating period. I was wrong. The most widely watched financial news medium in the world is CNBC, the very place where the phrase “talking heads” found its origin and the place where, during the dotcom boom of the 1990’s, former Trump Presidential Advisor Larry “Strong-Dollar-I-Hate-Gold” Kudlow would huddle with partner in crime Jim Cramer in a constant lovefest praising the second-largest financial bubble in history.
Kudlow, being a Trump supporter, can no longer show his Republican face in public while Jim Cramer recently tweeted out his esteemed opinion that the U.S. military should enforce the vaccine mandate, ever-ignorant of the U.S. constitution and of the entire concept of “Freedom of Choice.”
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Saturday, December 11, 2021
Has Bitcoin Crypto Mania Finally Run Its Course? / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: EWI
Here's a high-profile parallel between tech- and crypto-mania
When a company that's part of a major financial trend buys the naming rights to a professional sports stadium or arena, watch out!
History suggests that such a prominent move might be a sign that the fortunes of that company are about to dramatically change.
For instance, back in 1999-2000, technology shares were all the rage and one of the "highest of the dot-com high flyers," as the Wall Street Journal put it, was CMGI. It was the best performing U.S. stock from 1995 to 1999.
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Saturday, December 11, 2021
Socionomics the Key to Predicting Trends in Culture, Business, Politics and More / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Hi,
Have you heard of socionomics?
Socionomics is a budding field that uses trends in stock prices to predict and prepare for trends in business, the economy, politics, pop culture, polarization, societal health and much more.
It's an exciting perspective with (near) limitless practical application.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
BUY IBM Stock at a 20% DIscount / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
IBM - 20% Discount
IBM traded down form $142 to $118.3, complicated due to the split off of 20% of their business which was distributed on 3rd of November. Nevertheless those who bought IBM on the drop grabbed a bargain for they get 1 Kyndryl share for every 5 IBM shares held by close of 26th October. Kyndryl currently trades at $25, which equates to $5 per IBM share. So current price of IBM stock price is $123.6 plus $5 to arrive at $128.6 per IBM share. I had originally planned to sell Kyndryl, but given that the stock is trading down 50% form $50 I don't see much point of doing so right now so will hold for the time being.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
3 Stocks To Watch As The Lithium Boom Kicks Into High Gear / Companies / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
A boom in electric vehicles is expected to drive a phenomenal amount of demand for lithium, but that’s just the beginning.We’ve set out to solve global climate change, and that means electrifying absolutely everything.
It means a potential boom in electric vehicles, with BloombergNEF expecting global sales of sales to hit 5.6 million units by the end of this year.
It means a boom in energy storage solutions.
But we may not have enough metal to build it all. As a result, the hunt for battery metals has reached fever pitch, and lithium could be a big beneficiary.
We think a strong portfolio to play lithium should cover this segment from several angles, including rallying the biggest EV players, disruptive mining technology in the lithium space, and the world’s largest lithium miner.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Biden’s IRS Is Mining for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The Biden administration is moving aggressively to raise revenues by any means necessary – including going after precious metals held in so-called “home storage” or “checkbook” retirement accounts.
The IRS recently nailed a couple with a $300,000 tax bill for holding gold coins designated as Individual Retirement Account (IRA) assets – but stored in their home safe rather than at a depository.
The couple had unfortunately relied on marketing material from a promoter who claimed that setting up a limited liability company owned by their self-directed IRA would allow them to store their coins at home instead of through a third-party custodian.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Weak November Payrolls Won’t Help Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
November employment report was mixed. Unfortunately for gold, however, it won’t stop the Fed’s hawkish agenda.Nonfarm payrolls disappointed in November. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added only 210,000 jobs last month. This number is much lower than both October’s figure (546,000 gains) and the market expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 573,000 added jobs). So, it’s a huge blow to those optimistic about the US economy.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Deleveraging COVID Bubble – Possible Volatility Risks In Foreign Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I get asked all the time what my opinions are regarding the markets. As much as I could go into really deep details regarding technical analysis and other factors of my research, the simple answer is that we’ve been living through 2~4+ years of incredible market trends and unprecedented global central bank efforts to support and contain market risks. This is something we have not seen at these levels since the end of WWII and after the Great Depression.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Trading Options in the UK / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: Russell_Fenton
Some investors are happy with capital growth on their portfolios when trading stock markets, while some are looking for higher returns. There exists an option where there is still potential to make a lot of money, yet with lower risk than buying shares. Options trading can be an appealing method of making money in the financial markets, yet many people fail to understand even the basics of this complex transaction.
Nowadays, many brokers will allow you to sign up for an account and trade options, even without qualifications or financial investments. You will, therefore, only need the required funds to cover the initial margin requirements set out by your broker before you can begin trading.
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Thursday, December 09, 2021
BUY FACEBOOK Stock at a 10% DIscount / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Facebook or rather META traded down from $340 to a low $308. Facebook is the second most important stock on my list to accumulate into for the long-run AI mega-trend after Google, so it is a stock that I would personally not want to be totally disinvested from and remain eager to expand my holdings from about 3% upto a similar size to that of Google's current 6%.
METAVERSE is nothing new! It is the inevitable track Facebook has been on since it bought Oculus in 2014 and started to release the Quest VR headsets and thus is one of the primary reasons why I own Facebook stock as it currently dominates the VR market at about 1/3rd of the market share with it's VR headsets up from about 15% 3 years ago, headsets which I personally use so I well understand the technology and why the metaverse is slowly becoming manifest with each generation of headset and associated gear.
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Thursday, December 09, 2021
Stock Market Turning the Corner in Style / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls delivered, and the revival in risk-on is increasingly getting legs as HYG rebounded sharply. The sharply increasing participation is counterbalanced by still compressing yield curve, but yields finally rose yesterday. Finally, we saw a truly risk-on positioning in the credit markets – and that won‘t be without (positive) consequences.
Still, it pays to be ready for the adverse scenario that I‘ve described in yesterday‘s key analysis, in connection with which I have received an interesting question. It‘s essentially a request to dig in some more so that my thinking can‘t be interpreted as being on the verge of immediately flipping bearish:
Q: Your analysis of today: "Downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction's low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals". I am not sure if I am interpreting this right (English is not my native language). Are you saying that the market might turn down spectacular, even for precious metals?
A: it's specifically the market breadth for larger than 500 stock indices that tells me we possibly aren't out of the woods yet - no matter the technical improvements that I looked for us to get yesterday, and that are likely to continue thanks not only to solid HYG performance. What I'm saying is that unless there is broader participation in the unfolding S&P 500 rally (and in the rally of other indices), we're in danger of a more significant move to the downside than we saw already (those few percents down).
Thursday, December 09, 2021
How to Money Saving FREE DIY Christmas Tree! Sheffield UK Christmas 2021 / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: Eliza_Walayat
Christmas TREE! FREE Christmas TREE! Here how to save money as prices in the shops soar into the stratosphere! And you cannot get more money saving than FREE! So don't waste £30 upwards on a store bought christmas tree bag yourselves a money saving FREE christmas tree bargain.
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Thursday, December 09, 2021
Financial Tips To Help You Out While You're Travelling / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Steve_Barker
Whenever discussing traveling, many people instantly think about the many benefits of doing this. However, not everything is always great. One of the difficult things about going away, whether you do this for leisure or business, is that it can cost a lot of money. Staying away from home can incur additional costs, which may be difficult to manage.
This article will provide you with a few financial tips to help you out while you’re traveling, so that you can fully enjoy yourself and focus on your time away, rather than constantly worrying about financial difficulties.
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Thursday, December 09, 2021
New Mining Tech Could Be A Gamechanger For Lithium / Companies / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
Thanks to a potentially disruptive new technology, a revolution could be on the horizon in the lithium industry.
This revolution – which could see lithium production that is faster, cheaper and more environmentally friendly – would be happening at a time when demand for lithium is extraordinarily high.
With its proprietary lithium extraction technology, this company could unlock a significant amount of potential dollar value...possibly starting with their lithium exploration properties in Thunder Bay, Ontario and James Bay, Quebec.
This company – Vancouver-based Medaro Mining (CSE:MEDA; OTC:MEDAF) – is currently flying beneath Wall Street’s radar...but the exciting potential of its lithium extraction technology means that it may not be the case for much longer.
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Wednesday, December 08, 2021
Investing in the METAVERSE Stocks Universe / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Facebook hit the nail on the head by bringing forth realisation to the masses of the emerging metaverse's with their corporate name change to META, though most will soon forget what all the fuss was about and carry on their merry way until they next big metaverse story, so this aspect of the Quantum AI mega-trend will continue to trundle along in the background. However savvy investors will already be aware of the "meta-verse" and what it heralds in terms of virtual products and services as the headsets technology plays catchup so as to allow the masses to escape from an increasingly dismal economic future given the rise of machine intelligence automation that seeks to replace human labour as we have seen play out in countless movies such as Ready Player One.
Whilst those who are skeptical of the 'metaverse' or what I would call virtual worlds and see it as a flash in the pan that will soon forgotten for the next 'big thing' need to understand that we all already inhabit a virtual world in our day to day city lives, none of which is 'natural' but virtual space carved out by humans to inhabit to earn points (currency) to buy goods and services which is why so many people are easily able to escape into video games, and their virtual spaces which the metaverse virtual worlds take to the next level. i.e. metaverse's are basically GAMING ENVIRONMENTS that are being MONETIZED by means of crypto tokens such as the buying of virtual LAND,
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Wednesday, December 08, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
This week, I am keeping my post simple, as I am really short on time.
For those that follow my analysis through the years, you would remember that I turned strongly bullish as the S&P 500 approached the 2200SPX region in March of 2020. But, if you also remember that time period, the level of fear in the market even exceeded that seen at the March 2009 lows. So, when I suggested that the market would see a rally from 2200 to at least 4000, with an ideal target in the 6000 region, many simply could not believe what I was saying, as you can see here.
As you can see, most folks thought my view was “unmeaningful,” “absurd,” “insane,” or based upon “chart magic,” while I ignored the “common sense view.” However, my expectation was based upon our Fibonacci Pinball methodology of applying Elliott Wave analysis.
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Wednesday, December 08, 2021
US Dollar Still Has the Green Light / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The dollar looks poised for another rally, to gold’s dismay. So, what’s the price target for the greenback over the winter months?
While the consensus across the financial markets (especially at the beginning of the year) was that the U.S. dollar was destined for devaluation, I warned that the greenback would rise from the ashes. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, the latter’s ascent helped make the precious metals one of the worst-performing asset classes in 2021.
Moreover, after more dollar doubters emerged in October – and the precious metals rallied hard – the USD Index eventually cut through 94, 95, and then 96 like a knife through butter. And with the precious metals reversing sharply once again, I expect another rally to push the USD Index to ~98 over the medium term. Perhaps quite soon. And the implications for the precious metals sector, are bearish.
Wednesday, December 08, 2021
Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.
Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.
Wednesday, December 08, 2021
The Lithium Breakthrough That Could Transform The Mining Industry / Companies / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
The lithium-technology space is in a desperate race to build a better battery in time to keep pace with an energy transition that is mainstreaming electric vehicles.
Certain companies in this space working on battery breakthroughs are soaring.
Quantumscape has gained nearly 60% in October thanks to the development progress in its solid-state lithium battery for EVs.
It’s all about coming up with a better battery that’s cheaper and holds its charge longer, and the rush to the finish line here has created no less than a “Battery Arms Race”.
But we think betting on which one of these companies will reach the solid-state commercial finish line first means nothing without serious breakthroughs in the exploration and extraction of one of the key metals that underpin the entire EV and energy storage equation: Lithium.
A lithium shortage could stall the EV push and halt the battery arms race in its tracks. As it stands, it is questionable at best whether lithium supplies can keep up with the forecast of a huge increase in demand.
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