Sunday, February 06, 2022
Why Putin Wants the WHOLE of Ukraine - World War 3 Untended Consequences / Politics / Russia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Saber rattling, troop build ups, mis-information, clutching at peace straws, clueless journalist suggesting it's not going to happen because Putin's best buddy in China is in the mood for an omicron spreading sporting event.
Clearing away the fog - The Russians ARE going to invade Ukraine as soon as weather permits! Why? Because Russia is a dictatorship! Dictatorships seek out that which can exaggerate their power and Ukraine in those terms is the only obvious bordering target for Putin.
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Sunday, February 06, 2022
Will the Fed Tighten Gold? The Consequences Might Be Ignoble / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Beware, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could lift real interest rates! For gold, this poses a risk of prices wildly rolling down.The first FOMC meeting in 2022 is behind us. What can we expect from the US central bank this year and how will it affect the price of gold? Well, this year’s episode of Fed Street will be sponsored by the letter “T”, which stands for “tightening”. It will consist of three elements.
First, quantitative easing tapering. The asset purchases are going to end by early March. To be clear, during tapering, the Fed is still buying securities, so it remains accommodative, but less and less. Tapering has been very gradual and well-telegraphed to the markets, so it’s probably already priced in gold. Thus, the infamous taper tantrum shouldn’t replay.
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Sunday, February 06, 2022
New US National Debt Milestone Signals Currency Crisis Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
The U.S. reached a $30 trillion milestone this week. Instead of signifying a great achievement, though, it serves as a dire warning for American workers, investors, and retirees.
On Tuesday, the Treasury Department reported that total public debt outstanding surpassed $30,000,000,000,000.
That’s a lot of zeroes. It amounts to $231,000 per household.
Interest on the debt currently costs taxpayers $900 million per day, or $330 billion per year. Enormous as that sum may seem, it is artificially low at present due to depressed interest rates.
Sunday, February 06, 2022
Gold and SIlver, Precious Metals Sector Is at a Terrific Buy Spot / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical Analyst Clive Maund examines the charts for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, code GDX, and sees good cause to be positive about gold's future outlook.
In this update we are going to do something that we haven’t done for a while, which is to examine the charts for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, code GDX, in an effort to figure out where it is in its cycle, and as we will see there is every reason to be positive about its future outlook.
Generally speaking, the Precious Metals sector has been dull for a long time, since early August 2020 to be exact and it has seriously underperformed the market as a whole, which is a positive in the sense that this makes it more undervalued with more upside.
In recent months, as we can see on the latest 6-month chart, GDX has been pretty much rangebound above a strong support level, with its overall trend being neutral to slightly lower. Over the past couple of weeks it has dropped quite sharply, which of course was partly in sympathy with the sharp drop in the broad market, and it is looking more of a buy here with the appearance of a bull hammer on Friday close to the support.
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Saturday, February 05, 2022
THE Stock Market VALUATION RESET Explained / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The valuation reset is the rotation out of over valued growth stocks the pinnacle of which populate Cathy Wood's ARK funds and into under valued low PE usually dividend paying stocks as the following illustrates for the Russell Small cap stocks where high value stocks were bid up to to fever pitch ridiculous valuations whilst the value stocks were largely neglected by the market and as you can see we are a long way from the value reset from running it's course so this could play out for most of 2022. Where our AI tech stocks are concerned this translates into the higher the PE stocks facing greater downwards pressure for the likes of Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft and Amazon. Conversely the lower the PE stocks should see upwards pressure especially for dividend paying stocks such as IBM, Intel, GPN, LMT and so on into the biotech's.
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Saturday, February 05, 2022
A Gold-centric Macro View / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
As the gold “community” rationalizes gold’s currently low standing…
As unpopular it may be, I cannot alter the truth as I see it. Marketing is fine, but never at the expense of truth, as with much financial media/analysis (with little disclaimers tucked in below the fold).
In my opinion, a sizeable component of the gold ‘market’ is actually marketing; to the fearful, to the naive, to the biased, to the politically rigid… Also in my opinion, Twitter is a breeding ground made for brief promos, sloganeering and bias reinforcement.
Pop up mini-screed behind us, let’s take another view of the macro from the perspective of a pretty rock that is heavy and does nothing, other than provide an anchor to long-term value in a bubble era where value is temporarily an outmoded concept. You don’t root for gold. You play the macro and keep an eye on gold, because when it is time to be bullish on gold, it will mean that…
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Saturday, February 05, 2022
Gold and silver Inflation Safe Havens / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Richard_Mills
The US Federal Reserve, whose job is to keep unemployment in check and inflation in the “Goldilocks” zone of 2%, is telegraphing three interest rate increases of 0.25% each (1% at the high end of the range) this year.
Bloomberg believes the Fed might be more aggressive: “Our baseline is for the Fed to hike five times, each 25 basis points, this year, and balance-sheet runoff to begin in July. Our in-house rule for the Fed’s reaction function flags an upside risk for a 50 basis-point hike in March followed by five 25 basis-point hikes in the rest of the year.” Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist
The Fed has been wracking its brains trying to figure out how to control inflation, which is at a 40-year-high, and interest rate hikes are normally the usual panacea to cool an overheated, high-inflation economy.
The US Labor Department said that its Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% from November to December, bringing producer prices to a record-high 9.7%, the biggest calendar-year increase since data was first calculated in 2010.
The same report said US consumer prices increased solidly in December, led by gains in rental accommodation and used cars, culminating in the largest annual inflation rise in 40 years. Used-vehicle inflation is mostly driven by the shortage in semiconductor chips.
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Wednesday, February 02, 2022
High Risk Bio and Tech Stocks and the Quantum Entangled Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you buy Google (Alphabet) near $2512 last week as I and many of my patrons did, and similar for many other AI tech stocks?
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Wednesday, February 02, 2022
Stock Market Panic Selling - Can FED Engineer A Soft Landing For The Biggest Bubble We’ve Ever Seen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Taking into account the Fed comments from last week, recently one of our technical analysts forecasted a correct S&P Index price range of $4348 to $4261. The market has since corrected to that level and is now bouncing.
With that said, investors have been panicking with the SPY ETF having an average outflow of more than $1 billion per day over the past ten days.
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Wednesday, February 02, 2022
Stock Market Rally Getting Long in the Tooth / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recoverd the opening setback at 4,500, and the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery.
The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022.
Wednesday, February 02, 2022
Exploring James Drake’s Philanthropic Ventures / Politics / Social Issues
By: Sumeet_Manhas
20 years ago, the philanthropist and entrepreneur James Drake launched his first major enterprise: Future Science Group. Since then, he has developed a host of not-for-profit initiatives that operate within this progressive publisher and benefit from its resources and marketing, financial, legal, and IT departments. This way, each philanthropic enterprise can thrive in its own right and give back to industry-specific communities. Today, Drake leads an expansive philanthropic programme of organisations that contribute to the UK’s medical, scientific, and artistic arenas.
Drake’s philanthropic ventures might vary in terms of sector and approach, but each of his projects connects individuals from different backgrounds so thought-leaders can collaborate and contribute to society. From funding essential research into sports-related head impacts to providing scholarships for underprivileged musicians, publishing letter collections brimming with correspondence that may otherwise go unseen, and curating a central database for the renowned sculptor Prince Paul Troubetzkoy, Drake’s work covers a broad compass.
Wednesday, February 02, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels and Limit Orders for Buying the Panic! / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A reminder that my plan is to capitalise on a valuation reset in the over valued tech giants as they are one by one marked lower by at least 20% from their bull highs as we recently enjoyed with Facebook down to $300, with Nvidia and AMD already along their path towards triggering buying opportunities and the likes of Microsoft and Apple to soon follow suit.
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Wednesday, February 02, 2022
6 Things You Need To Know About Online Accounting / Personal_Finance / Financial Education
By: Steve_Barker
Efficient accounting is a very important element of a successful business. Unfortunately, many start-ups and new business owners overlook accounting, choosing instead to manage their businesses finances themselves. The primary reason for this is usually to save money, which is strange, considering the fact that online accountants are extremely affordable. Not only are they affordable, but they also save you a lot of money in the long term.If you have found this page because you have realised how important professional accounting is, then you are on the right track. Here are six things that you need to know about professional online accounting:
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Wednesday, February 02, 2022
How Can I Save More This Year? / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts
By: Submissions
Finding ways to spend less, and save more, could be a resolution that you have set yourself this year. Alternatively, you may simply want to make it easier for yourself to make tax payments, or pay other bills when they are due. Parents may also want to teach their children about good money habits, especially in a society filled with the ability to make convenient purchases. Adopting some better money choices could really benefit you and your family, and set everyone up for more stability in the future.To teach your children about saving money, you might want to consider opening a tax efficient ISA for your child. Unlike some savings accounts, an ISA might not count for tax purposes, meaning you can save right up to the maximum amount without having to pay fees on the money, or the interest it gains.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2022
Unloved Biotech Stocks Sector / Companies / BioTech
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And the same it true for the unloved Biotech sector, where here's a taste of what to expect when I take a detail look at the biotech stocks. It's definitely going to take something special to buck the sector downtrend!
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Tuesday, February 01, 2022
The Quantum Entangled Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FAANG stocks are entangled with one another, which is why the likes of Amazon is still holding up there with the likes of Apple and Microsoft. and why we don't tend to get many opportunities to accumulate in the FAANG stocks at deep discounts because to get an opportunity means we are going to have to wait for an opportunity in ALL of the FAANG+ stocks to materialise.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: It's Time To Invest Based Upon Corporae Earnings / Companies / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
We have all heard the phrase “earnings are the mother’s milk of stocks.” I believe the phrase was coined by Larry Kudlow. In fact, I have some commenters to my articles that claim that earnings are the only thing one needs to know about investing in the stock market.
But, is it true?
Bob Prechter has done some research into this topic, and has outlined some very interesting market history that flies in the face of the common perception regarding earnings: The Myth of Company Earnings and Stock Price
Are stocks driven by corporate earnings? In June 1991, The Wall Street Journal reported on a study by Goldman Sachs’ Barrie Wigmore, who found that “only 35% of stock price growth [in the 1980s] can be attributed to earnings and interest rates.” Wigmore concludes that all the rest is due simply to changing social attitudes toward holding stocks. Says the Journal, “[This] may have just blown a hole through this most cherished of Wall Street convictions.”
What about simply the trend of earnings versus the stock market? Well, since 1932, corporate profits have been down in 19 years. The Dow rose in 14 of those years. In 1973-74, the Dow fell 46% while earnings rose 47%. 12-month earnings peaked at the bear market low. Earnings do not drive stocks.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR
It looks like my last article freighted a lot of patrons, which was not my intention for I already flagged that the risks of a market panic event have been increasingly long before the neural net signaled a 100%+ reading. It is what it is, an independant indicator which increases the probability for lower prices going forward hence I revised my stock market expectations lower as illustrate by the updated stock market trend forecast graph.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
Warren Buffetts $130 billion 2022 Investing Master Plan / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is sat on $130 billion of cash. Why? Waiting for the inevitable panic event? Then why didn't Berkshire Hathaway buy in March 2020?
No, Warren Buffett master plans is this -
When the markets starts to crash / roll over into a bear market the naked longs facing forced sales will seek out investors to buy them out of their positions else the the markets would face a cascade of forced panic selling and where would they look for that buyer of last resort who has advertised to all well in advance that they have a mountain of cash? Warren Buffett who will likely be able to pick up positions in his target stocks at deep discounts to market prices.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
Fed Comments Help To Settle Global Stock Market Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.
In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.
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