Wednesday, December 22, 2021
Remembering Wharton: Detecting When the Fed Turns 'For or Against You' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger remembers lessons learned years ago from a three-year course in "Stocks and Bonds 101," and how those principles still apply today.
In 1983, I was offered the opportunity to attend a three-year course in “Stocks and Bonds 101” courtesy of the Securities Industry Association. With little or no appreciation of what that course might actually do for me, I eagerly accepted because the main perk was a shingle for my office emblazoned with the title “The Wharton School” with my name just below it and signature-verified by a bunch of northeast blue bloods.
That three-year journey had a remarkable impact on my psyche. I met some of my earlier heroes like Martin Zweig, Jeremy Seigel, Julius Westheimer, and Gail Dudack, all of whom were really interesting personalities. But none were as impactive as a little-known trader called Robert Gordon. At first glance, I thought that he was the perfect image of a New Yorker – a cross between Robert DeNiro and John Travolta but, at maybe 5 feet 9 inches tall, at least a few inches taller. He was a disciple of the legendary Ivan Boesky (an arbitrageur who went to prison for insider trading in 1987), known for his understanding and skill in the art of taking advantage in inefficiencies in securities pricing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 22, 2021
Euro: Look at This Head & Shoulders Chart Formation / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
Learn about the "head and shoulders" measuring formula
You are probably familiar with the classic "head and shoulders" chart pattern.
But, in case you need a refresher, here's a brief description of a head and shoulders top:
The high of an initial upward move is the left shoulder. After a decline, another upward move takes prices to a higher high, or the head. A second decline follows the head. A third rally then takes prices to a peak below the high of the head, and becomes the right shoulder. The left and right shoulders are often similar in duration and extent. A trendline connecting the two lows is called the neckline. When prices penetrate the neckline, a change of trend is believed to have occurred.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
- China housing market in distress - CHECK
- China's economy slowing - CHECK
- US Economy slowing - CHECK
- Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
- Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
- Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
- REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
- STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
- FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
- IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!
So yes, Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to brew in the background and will likely come knocking on many investor portfolio door's during 2022 so don't be so eager to FOMO into stocks today to later wish one had missed out on the preceding 6-8 months of price action by Mid 2022. Where whatever one buys and holds today needs to factor in a potential for lower lows than what we saw in October and for some a lot lower lows than that! If one is happy with that then continue to FOMO all the way to new all time highs, for the time being.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Good Luck Trying To Understand This Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
During the last two weeks, I had the pleasure of traveling with my wife, Sharise, as we hosted our members on a cruise through the Caribbean. We then flew to New York, where we spent time with my father, whose health has been recently failing, and had the opportunity to see Andrea Bocelli in concert at Madison Square Garden.
If you have ever had the pleasure of hearing Mr. Bocelli sing, then you would know how his music can touch your soul. But, if you had the opportunity to learn his life story of perseverance, it would touch your soul that much more deeply.
In a loving note to his family, Mr. Bocelli penned the following words:
"never forget there is no such thing as happenstance. That's an illusion that lawless and arrogant men invented, so that they could sacrifice the truth of our world to their laws of reason."
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
US Dollar‘s Stock Market Warning Signal / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure.
Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar?
The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. Corona response is another uncertainty, and given the APT performance, the odds of seeing economic activity (just at a time when supply chains would need to keep working off prior setbacks) restricted, have increased. Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already...
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
Inflation Torpedoes Biden Agenda – Will It Next Wreck Financial Markets? / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
President Joe Biden’s so-called “Build Back Better” agenda was dealt a likely fatal blow on Sunday. Moderate Democrat Joe Manchin announced that he would oppose his party’s massive $2 trillion spending bill.
That effectively kills it in its current form.
Chief among Senator Manchin’s reasons for opposing the Biden administration’s far-reaching spending scheme is inflation.
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
How Is the Financial Services Industry Changing? / Companies / Banking Stocks
By: Submissions
The financial services industry operates in a rapidly changing world, but one it can help shape. Banking, insurance, capital markets, commercial real estate, investment management – 2022 represents a pivotal opportunity for all these businesses to create their own future.
There needs to be a lot of focus on digital transformation and ESG initiatives across the industry, as well as investments in talent and in finding new ways to work together and boost efficiency. The time has come to rethink traditional bottom-line metrics and develop strategies that address both corporate and societal demands by placing purpose and trust at the forefront.
Monday, December 20, 2021
Fed WAY behind Curve, Real Rates to Remain Deeply Negative / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
As the Federal Reserve prepares to taper its asset purchases, investors are preparing to adjust their portfolios.
Some are dumping gold. They could be making a big mistake.
Sentiment toward precious metals turned negative as prices fell over the past few weeks. Gold and silver markets continued to slide ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday.
However, they got a bounce following the Fed’s announcement that it would double the pace of tapering in 2022 and raise interest rates up to three times.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 20, 2021
Fading the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value barely hanging onto opening gains. Russell 2000 breaking below its Wednesday‘s open nicely illustrates how late in the topping process we are. What is needed for the upswing to go on, is tech leading the daily charge once again – and it remains to be seen for how long and to what degree would value be able to participate.
I‘m taking today‘s S&P 500 weakness as squaring the prior quick long gains, which felt practically as a short squeeze. Now, we‘re working through the faster taper impact, not having shaken the news off yet. We‘re though getting there, if precious metals seeing through the fresh policy move inadequacy, and commodities likewise, are any clue. As I wrote yesterday:
(…) pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course.
Monday, December 20, 2021
Not Only Gold Lacks Energy – We All Do Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
First a pandemic, then inflation, and now an energy crisis. Should you buy gold when preparing for the winter?Brace yourselves, winter is coming! And this time I’m deadly serious, as there is a global energy crisis. Not only does gold lack energy to fuel its rally right now, but people from all over the world lack it to fuel their operations and to heat their houses. Apparently, the coronavirus pandemic wasn’t enough, so we also have to deal with inflation, supply bottlenecks, and the energy crisis. I guess there is nothing else to do now but wait for the frogs to start falling from the sky.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 20, 2021
Consumer Price Index (Less Food & Energy) Climbs To Highest Levels Since 2007-08 / Economics / Inflation
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I and Part II of this research article, I shared my research into the state of past and current US and global economy, Rest Of World Debt, DGP Implicit Price Deflator, Fed Funds Rates, and other technical data charts. The purpose of this article is to share with you two key components of the current US and global market trends; higher inflationary trends and a potentially trapped US Federal Reserve.
Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!
I will share more data/charts, and my proprietary US economy/Fed modeling systems results in Part III. My objective is to share my belief that the US Federal Reserve still has room to adjust interest rates (within reason) and how the US/global economy is starting to trend into the highest inflationary levels since 1975~1985. These levels could frighten traders/investors, but given the global economic constraints of the COVID lock-downs, I consider the current economic trends a symptom of the stimulus/solution – not necessarily an inherent economic trend. Allow me to explain my thinking in more detail.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 19, 2021
Gold – Nothing More, Nothing Less, Nothing Else / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD – NOTHING MORE
Gold is real money; nothing more. That is a hard pill for some investors and advisors to swallow. Actually, it is the second part of the statement that raises the most concern.
More than just a few people will readily affirm their belief that gold is real money. Beyond that, though, there is a tendency to get carried away with descriptions and analyses regarding “fundamentals” for gold.
Those fundamentals are many and varied; but they have nothing to do with gold or its price.
As the cumulative loss in purchasing power of the US dollar becomes more apparent, and as the price of gold continues to rise, more people take notice.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 19, 2021
Best Christmas Lights 2021 - Ooklee Outdoor Fireworks / Starburst Battery Lights Review / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: HGR
Tis the season for Christmas Lights! On the hunt for something unique I happened on a pair of battery operated starburst / firework lights. They looked good in the images, and so should look good hanging from our trees so I bought a pair from Amazon UK and here's our review of what to expect.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 19, 2021
AI Predicts HIGH Risk of Stock Market CRASH, Last Warning Was Late Feb 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 19, 2021
How Online Casino Software Providers keep their product competitive / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
The online casino market has grown at an incredible rate in recent years in which more people than ever are opting to swap a visit to their local brick and mortar casino to a game online instead. As of 2019, the global online casino industry was worth $265 billion US dollars; a figure that was projected to continually grow before the pandemic.
Due to the success of the online casino market, casino providers are needing to come up with new and innovative ways to remain competitive. With so many providers, it can often be difficult for consumers to choose a provider or more so stick to one provider, in which customer loyalty could be said to be becoming a thing of the past.
However, providers like those listed on bestcasino.uk provide some of the top online casino software that’s continually being updated to reflect the fast growing pace at which technology is evolving. Below, we’ll take a look at how online casino providers utilise the latest software to retain a competitive edge in the market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 18, 2021
AMD Stock $136 on Route to Eventually Hit $200 / Companies / AMD
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Positive response to its earnings report but it is over priced on a PE of 56.7, and an EC of 16. The big problem with AMD is they are a serial share printer i.e. existing investors are being diluted by 5-10% per annum. Hence why whilst I want to buy more AMD, I don't want to pay anywhere near 57X earnings for a corp that prints shares! However, in light of their earnings report I am raising the buying level from $92 to $101.8, which is where I will aim to buy more AMD stock for the long-run.
Whilst I caution all those considering selling AMD, as I tend to get asked in the comments from time to time as this stock could easily trade to over $200 as I stated my expectations of several months ago.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 18, 2021
META (Facebook) Dominating VR / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I won't regurgitate that which has already been blasted across the airwaves during the past few weeks since Zuckerberg's announcement so I will dive straight into the stock chart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 18, 2021
WTI & Brent Crude Oil – How Will Inflation Impact Energy Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Once inflation is set free, it never returns to the previous state. The fight requires fast thinking, but major banks still sit on the fence.
On the global economic scene, major central banks still don’t really know which pedal to use - either the one to fight inflation (tapering) or the other one to keep taking their shoot of quantitative easing (money-printing) policies. Inflation, however, is like toothpaste: once you got it out, you can’t get it back in again. So, instead of squeezing the tube too strongly, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to maintain an accommodating tone this week, which could eventually benefit the price of black gold.
Crude oil prices were looking for a direction to take on Tuesday, after mixed reports emerged, one rather pessimistic on global demand (published by EIA) and the other, more optimistic over sustained demand, from the OPEC group. Indeed, the first report came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday morning. It slightly lowered its forecast of world oil demand for 2021 and 2022, by 100,000 barrels per day on average, mainly to consider the lower use of air fuels due to new restrictions on international travel.
Saturday, December 18, 2021
Building a Desktop PC Computer Christmas Present, Will it Work when Switched On? / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: Eliza_Walayat
A DIY self built computer system Christmas present for Eliza! A good way to save money and as a teaching tool for kids to learn what all of the components in a desktop PC are are. But will it switch on? Lets find out!
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 18, 2021
Fed Interest Rate Actions 1999 to Present – Stock Market What’s Next? / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Let’s continue to explore the past 20 years of US Fed actions. I believe the US Fed has created a global expansion of both economies and debts/liabilities that may become somewhat painful for foreign nations – and possibly the US.
Reading The Data & What To Expect in 2022 And Beyond
In the first part of this research article, I highlighted the past 25 years of US Fed actions related to the DOT COM bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attack, the 2008-09 US Housing/Credit crisis, and the recent COVID-19 virus event. Each time, the US Federal reserve had attempted to raise interest rates before these crisis events – only to be forced to lower interest rates as the US economy contracted with each unique disruption. The US Fed was taking what it believed were necessary steps to protect the US economy and support the global economy into a recovery period.
Read full article... Read full article...