Monday, October 24, 2016

Presidents Can’t Fix the US Economy / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Ever wish you could time-travel back to an earlier, simpler era? Many folks do. We differ only in how far back we want to go.

This year’s intense presidential campaign only adds to our nostalgia.

Hillary Clinton supporters long for the 1990s… when Bill was president and the economy was booming. Many Donald Trump voters have an earlier destination in mind… maybe the 1950s, when we had few foreign military entanglements and American industry led the world.

Monday, October 24, 2016

The US Is NOT a Low-Tax Jurisdiction / Politics / Taxes

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : Trump has been running his mouth about how the US is one of the highest-taxed countries in the world. This really makes the journalists upset. They say that it’s false. Every time he says this, they have a conniption.

How can it be true? How can we have higher taxes than Sweden—where taxes are so high that everything is free, there are ponies everywhere, and everyone is happy?

Monday, October 24, 2016

SPX may be completing a double zigzag pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket appears to be challenging the Triangle formation and the two-hour mid-cycle resistance at 2146.56 in a double zigzag pattern. This may explain the overlapping, corrective structure of the retracement of the decline between October 10 – 13.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Stocks, Crude Oil and EURUSD Trend Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Ken_Ticehurst

We should now begin to see a drop in WTI over the next couple of months and in to 2017, so far the consolidation that has ocurred over the last few weeks has been as forecast and the next down phase we have been modelling for months is now due.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Stock Market Positive Expectations, Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, October 24, 2016

Average five-year Fixed Rate Savings Bond Falls Below 2.00% / Personal_Finance / Saving Bonds

By: MoneyFacts

Long-term fixed rate bonds used to be the premier solution for many savers looking for a decent return on their savings. However, Moneyfacts.co.uk data can reveal the disappointing news that the average five-year fixed bond rate has fallen to a record low, now standing below 2.00%.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Obama's Pivot to Asia Hits a Roadblock in the Philippines / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

While the mainstream media continues its obsessive reporting on the mud-slinging campaign for the White House, a dramatic development in China last week brought President Obama's "pivot to Asia" to a sudden halt. Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, while in Beijing, announced his country's "separation" from the United States. He told his Chinese audience, "Your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation from the United States ... both in military, but also economics."

Monday, October 24, 2016

Stock Market Another Month to Go? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening.  Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend: The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase which could extend into November.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Large Sell-off in Stock Market Looming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

About every 20 weeks or so there is usually a noticeable sell-off in the stock market. We had the October 15, 2014 low followed 20 weeks later, in mid March, 2015 by a low, which was followed in late August (the 24th) by that low. Then roughly 5 months later on January 20, 2016 by a low, then June 27th and now November 2016. The March 2015 low was a shallow, skipping low as was June 27, 2016 (the Brexit low).

November 2016 also represents the 8-year cycle low due from November 21, 2008. Wednesday next week is exactly 40 weeks from the January 2016 low, so it is due. The 20 week lows are subdivided by 5 and 10 week lows last seen 8/2/16(five), 9/12/16(ten) and 10/13/16(five). The ideal 10/20/40 week low is due Nov 21, 2016 one week.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Ungovernability / Politics / Social Issues

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Over the summer I introduced a two-fold assertion: 1) global economic growth is over (and has been for years and won’t come back for many more years) and 2) the end of growth marks the end of all centralization, including globalization. You can read all about these themes in “Globalization Is Dead, But The Idea Is Not” and “Why There is Trump” There are also extensive quotes of the second essay in wicked former UK MI6 spymaster Alastair Crooke’s “‘End of Growth’ Sparks Wide Discontent”.

When I say ‘the end of growth’, I don’t mean that in a Limits to Growth kind of way, or peak oil or things like that. Not because I seek to invalidate such things, but because I mean economics, finance only. Our economies simply ceased growing, and quite a few years ago. The only reason that is not, and very widely, recognized is the $21 trillion and change that central banks have conjured up ostensibly to kickstart a recovery that always remains just around the corner.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Stock Market Boredom Before The Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Rubino

With all the surprising and/or disturbing things going on – Brexit, China’s soaring debt, US/Russia/China saber rattling, the, um, unique US presidential race, the cyber attack that shut down big parts of the US Internet – you’d think that an unsettled world would be reflected in skittish financial markets.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Establishment Mainstream Media Elite Buys US Election for Hillary Clinton, Time Running Out for Trump / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The relentless mainstream establishment press's hammering of Donald Trump on an near hourly basis whilst at the same time make light or being completelty deaf, dumb and blind to Hillary Clinton's alleged criminal activities as are being exposed by the likes of WikiLeaks on a near daily basis that are just NOT being reported on by the mainstream press, continues to prevent any signs of a Donald Trump recovery, either in the opinion polls or the book maker odds markets that point to Trumps campaign being literally on life support, and with time fast running out for the long climb back towards any chance of Trump winning this election that clearly has been bought and paid for by the Washington establishment elite, which illustrates that in reality the US IS a ONE PARTY STATE. Democrat or Republican are flip sides of the SAME coin which is why NOTHING EVER CHANGES! Remember Obama and his message of CHANGE ? What changed? NOTHING! Because the same elite bankroll both parties and their candidates!

Sunday, October 23, 2016

US Presidential Election Lies and Voter Rigging / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Walter_Brasch

Donald Trump, losing to Hillary Clinton in every major national poll, long ago brilliantly figured out how to continue to rally his base. Instead of dealing with issues, he attacks Clinton, the mass media, and calls the election rigged.

The campaign rhetoric has been one not of issues but of personalities. Hillary Clinton calls Trump unfit to be president, so Trump retaliates by accusing her of being unfit. Most of their television ads are attack ads. In personal appearances, their speeches focus upon what’s wrong with the other candidate not what their own presidency will be about. The last time a presidential race was this vicious may have been in 1800 when Thomas Jefferson was challenging President John Adams.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Inflation About To Explode Higher / Economics / Inflation

By: James_Quinn

“Those who are capable of tyranny are capable of perjury to sustain it.” ― Lysander Spooner

We all know the BLS artificially suppresses the CPI through bullshit substitution adjustments, quality adjustments, and various other incomprehensible hedonic adjustments made by government apparatchiks at the behest of their politician bosses. Some obscure theoretical academic  calculation called owners equivalent rent accounts for almost a quarter of the CPI weighting.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Still waiting for SPX uptrend to kick off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

Another choppy week. The week started at SPX 2133. After a decline on Monday to SPX 2124 the market rallied to 2148 by Wednesday. Then monthly options expiration kicked in and the market declined to SPX 2130 by Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Economic reports were mixed. On the downtick: the NY FED, capacity utilization, the NAHB, the WLEI, housing starts, plus weekly jobless claims were higher. On the uptick: industrial production, the CPI, building permits, existing home sales, the Philly FED, and the Q3 GDP est. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, durable goods orders and more housing reports. Best to your week!

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Will a Rising US Dollar Crush Gold’s Fledgling Bull? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold and gold stocks have stabilized after forming a short-term low and even held up well while the US$ index pushed to an 8-month high. Conventional wisdom would tell us with the US$ index nearing a major breakout, Gold and gold stocks would be vulnerable to further losses. However, many astute analysts and traders believe that Gold and the US$ index can rise together and we note that the trend in the US$ index while important, is not the primary driver of Gold. Ultimately, as long as Gold’s fundamental driver, declining or negative real rates remain in place, then the fledgling bull market will remain on track.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Why The Global Economy Will Disintegrate Rapidly Back to Olduvai Gorge / Economics / Economic Collapse

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We have written little on the topic of energy lately, other than related to oil prices going up and down, empty OPEC ‘promises’ to cut oil production, and the incredible debt load threatening to crush US -and Canadian- unconventional oil and gas. It’s a logical outcome of focusing more on finance than energy, because we feel the former has a shorter timeline than the latter. Something that harks back to our Oil Drum days.

But that doesn’t mean that the idea and/or principle of peak oil has disappeared, or that we have completely forgotten it. It has just been snowed under by the financial crisis (and by unconventinal oil and gas). And while we continue to find that the financial world will dump us into a bigger crisis sooner than energy will, it’s useful to look at oil et al from time to time.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

GLD Bleeds Out; Weekly Gold Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

The one factor that gold bulls have had going in their favor during the recent selloff that occurred in gold and the gold mining shares in this month of October, has been the stellar performance of the reported holdings in the gigantic gold ETF, GLD. It has held rock steady in spite of the carnage witnessed, especially in the mining shares, even as the US Dollar has turned strongly bullish on the technical price charts. It has been a point of solace among the bulls to be able to see the resolve of some of their large sponsors holding firm in GLD.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Stock Market Investment Success Through the “Investment Rule of 72” / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Christopher_Quigley

The issue of successful stock market investment affects us all. Even if we are not directly engaged in the industry, all of us will need some form of pension to fund our retirement. Whether we like it or not most of our retirement funds will find their way into the financial markets. For this very reason, the issue of pensions has moved politically centre stage; in particular the investment strategies used to administer pension funds. Due to mismanagement, mainly over the last decade, many retirement portfolios have become under-funded at best, or, at worst, totally bust. This situation is a direct result of the managed funds having been speculated rather than invested. Many cynics will say that the whole investment environment today has more of the characteristics of a casino than of a professional market of equities and, therefore, they doubt that one can ever achieve a faithful and fair return on capital. However, this view is erroneous. This essay sets out to explain how to achieve superior pension investment returns through a simple yet powerful investment rule: “the rule of 72. This rule is based on investment and not speculation yet if you faithfully apply it your returns, over time, will be spectacular. Many believe that such degree of return is only possible through “speculative activity”. They are wrong and I will explain.

Friday, October 21, 2016

The Final Bottom in Gold - WHEN / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The big decline in the precious metals appears to already be underway (even though we are in a short-term corrective upswing) and it seems that gold will move much lower in the coming months even though it’s likely to move higher in the coming days. The big decline remains to be the most important development for gold and silver investors. Why? Because this decline’s end is likely to present the ultimate buying opportunity for precious metals and for mining stocks.