Hillary Emails Disaster Sees Trump Jump 29% in Betting Market Odds, Can He Win?

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A day on from the breaking of the Hillary Emails bombshell and the dust is settling in the betting markets to reveal a market jump in Trumps favour by 29%, that saw betfair's Trump price recover from an clearly unwinnable 6 to now stand at 4.3. Is it enough to win the election? We'll 4.3 is still substantially away from where Trump stood just before the 1st Presidential debate at 2.88, in advance of which I had concluded that given the trend trajectory at that time that Trump despite being behinf in the polls and the betting markets WOULD win the election given the anti-establishment Brexit factor.

Since which time I added the Terminator factor as also working in Trumps favour. Still with less than 9 days to go, it really is proving a tough call on whether these two undocumented factors by the mainstream press, pundits, bookies and markets can achieve a Trump shock and awe victory. Especially given that every other day brings forward a swing in the opposite direction.

The question is what shock news is going to come next ?, and maybe the one after that will it be anti Trump or anti Hillary, it could make all the difference as we count down to election day.

However, despite my primary objective being one of trying to arrive at that which is the most probable outcome, everything I have seen in this process leads me to conclude that Donald Trump is a little bit insane, he clearly can't distinguish the difference between reality and fantasy, so one can imagine if he wins its going to be a very bumpy stock market ride!

US Presidential Election Betfair Market Trend

The huge 7% polls gap that Trump was on just a couple of days ago has now shrunk to 4% with Hillary now averaging on 45.5% against Trump on 41.5%. So it is still all to play for and I will try to come back with a final conclusion in this topsy turvy election campaign that defies logic, rhyme and reason, in the meantime here is my long standing forecast as of 26th September -

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And lastly here's my last video analysis of 12th of October. But the betting markets say it all, the electorate is very volatile.

And ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get my final conclusion in your email in box due within the next few days.

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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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