Tuesday, November 08, 2016
Has Hispanic / Latino Vote Won US Election for Hillary Clinton in Florida and Beyond? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Trump started off his election campaign by denigrating latino's, and thus it looks like Trump has achieved what no democrat has achieved to such great extent which is galvanise the Latino vote in unprecedented numbers to come out and vote for the Democratic candidate and thus it will be the estimated 6.5 million Latino's in Florida who could win Hillary Clinton the state and US Presidential election of 2016.
Monday, November 07, 2016
Brexit Makes This US Presidential Election So Uncertain / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: GoldCore
Ignore election theory, this one’s too uncertain
- This year’s election breaks the mould in a number of important ways
- Markets seem to be agnostic as to which party is in control of the White House.
- However, likely that uncertainty will drive markets for time-being
- Polls might be victim to ‘the Bradley effect’
- Hillary is seen as lower-risk and less volatile than the Republican.
Monday, November 07, 2016
The US Presidential Election Stock Market Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Tanashian
The market has been very readable since before Brexit. It was over bearish and due for a post-Brexit rally 
. It was due for a drop to test major support , but amid last week’s highly broadcast 9 straight down days and the renewed Clinton email scare, it was due for a bounce from over bearish status . However, this is not the end of the story. We remain on a test of major support unless certain upside resistance parameters are taken out. Beyond this highly volatile phase, we are likely either going to confirm major support and potentially break out to new highs or a bear market will ensue.
Monday, November 07, 2016
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish Ahead Of U.S. Election / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, November 07, 2016
Overcoming the Middle-Income Trap with Structural Reforms / Politics / Social Issues
By: Dan_Steinbock
According to the World Bank, China is an upper-middle-income country. However, only structural reforms will allow China to surpass the middle-income trap.According to a recent report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), China has entered the ranks of the so-called “upper-middle-income” countries. It has triggered a fair amount of interest among those Chinese who are concerned for the middle-income trap; that is, a status quo in which a country attains a certain level of income but gets stuck at that level.
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Monday, November 07, 2016
Stock Market Still Correcting / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening. Potential final phase of bull market.
SPX Intermediate trend: The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase which could extend into November.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, November 07, 2016
Regardless of How America Votes, Americans Want a Different Foreign Policy / Politics / US Politics
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
I have said throughout this presidential campaign that it doesn't matter much which candidate wins. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are authoritarians and neither can be expected to roll back the leviathan state that destroys our civil liberties at home while destroying our economy and security with endless wars overseas. Candidates do not matter all that much, despite what the media would have us believe. Ideas do matter, however. And regardless of which of these candidates is elected, the battle of ideas now becomes critical.
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Monday, November 07, 2016
The US Presidential Election Is Not A Brexit Moment / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Bob_Kirtley
There have been a number of comparisons drawn from the event risk around the upcoming US presidential election and the Brexit referendum earlier this year. There are a number of similarities, most notably in the market reaction to changing poll numbers prior to the vote, but also a significant number of crucial differences which make trading strategies around the US election different from those around Brexit.
Monday, November 07, 2016
The Markets and the US Election Outcome No One Is Thinking About / Stock-Markets / US Presidential Election 2016
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : I’ve been saying that the Fed is more hawkish than people think for quite a while, but nobody is listening to me.
This is not a good Fed. They aren’t making decisions on a predictive, forward-looking basis. They are very concerned about optics—how things look. And to them, right now the optics of having Fed funds at 0.375% with unemployment at 5% are very bad.
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Monday, November 07, 2016
Corporate Earning reports Have Turned into a Dangerous Shell Game / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: John_Mauldin
You own stocks for two reasons. You either think the shares will gain value or give you dividend income, or both.
Neither will happen unless the company is making money or at least has the plausible hope of making money someday. Earnings reports are important because they tell us whether that’s happening.
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Monday, November 07, 2016
Thanks to Obamacare, US Government Debt Is Worse Than You Think / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
You’re probably aware that the US budget deficit jumped to $590 billion for fiscal 2016. What you might not know is that US government debt rose by $1.4 trillion last fiscal year. That difference between the deficit and debt increases is a huge number.
What did we spend that additional $800 billion on?
My friends Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Asset Management can answer that question and more. Using current CBO projections and the trend in off-budget debt, Lacy and Van estimate that US government debt could grow by an additional $13 trillion in the next 10 years (by 2025). That would put total debt at $33 trillion and push to 150% debt-to-GDP.
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Monday, November 07, 2016
WIll Under Political Pressure FBI Director James Comey AGAIN Reopen Hillary Clinton Emails Investigation? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FBI tends to flip flop its stance every 10 days on the Hillary Clinton classified documents stored on a private email server saga, depending who is putting the FBI under political pressure at anyone time. So the next date to watch is November the 17th when James Comey could once more be expected to make a statement that oops we did find something after all in the 650,000 emails on Weiner's laptop so the investigation is once more reopening.
Monday, November 07, 2016
Trump Panic, Hillary Polls Surge, Betting Markets Crash and the BrExit Swing States / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The wild manic US election roller coaster ride is almost over with just over 30 hours to go until the polls open 6am Tuesday, though approximately 1/3rd of voters have already voted early so the campaigns on the final day will be busy blitzkrieging those swing states that have not had early voting which means Pensylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan and of course Florida are all set to be bombarded with more campaign visits.
Monday, November 07, 2016
Time To Short the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The dollar rally has been led in hopes of the FED tightening rates in December of 2016. While most of the other developed nations are still struggling with low inflation, the U.S.Government provided data that has been largely supportive of a rate hike.
The sharp rise in the dollar had taken it to extreme levels against the EURO, as shown in the Bloomberg chart below.The reversal was due, as evidenced by the RSI, however, the fall has been more vicious and looks like a correction, rather than a mere pullback.
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Monday, November 07, 2016
Stock Market Countdown: An E-Wave Perspective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." ~ Mark Twain
Going back and reevaluating the wave counts going back to the founding of our country, I realized I had made a mistake and that is we are in the final 5th of a 5th of a 5th which, itself, may be a millennial 3rd wave going back through European statistics to around 1000 C.E.
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Monday, November 07, 2016
BATR 2016 US Election Editorial / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: BATR
Campaigning fatigue has drained the country of common sense judgment as emotional psychosis engulfs much of the population. It is long overdue for the citizens of this once great Republic to look directly in the mirror. Ask yourself, what is your own personal responsibility in allowing society to become a moral cesspool? The United States is no longer GOOD. The conduct and crimes of the ruling elite are unconscionable.
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Sunday, November 06, 2016
Gold Stocks Proprietary Cycle Indicator Remains Down / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in gold and silver, noting the markets will be volatile until the election is over.
Sunday, November 06, 2016
SPX Stock Market Downtrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Tony_Caldaro
The week started at SPX 2126. After a bounce to SPX 2133 on Monday the market steadily declined to 2084 by Friday. There were three 10+ point rallies along the way, but they were all sold the same, or following, day. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.7%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.9%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative ones. On the downtick: Chicago PMI, auto sales, construction spending, the ADP, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims increased. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, ISM services, factory orders, monthly payrolls, the Q4 GDP estimate, plus the trade balance and unemployment rate improved. Next week will be highlighted by the Election.
Sunday, November 06, 2016
American Election and the Fall of the Fourth Estate – The Price of Bribery and Corruptions / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Dr_R_M_Mathew
The actual causalities of the American Presidential Election are not the Democracy or the Judiciary, but the so called Experts, the Academics, the Lead Media Persons and above all the Fourth Estate. For the last three years, Hillary Clinton has been bribing almost all American and International Print and Electronic Medias, Top Media persons and Academics to project her as the embodiment of all human virtues and the most suitable candidate for the American Presidential Election.
Sunday, November 06, 2016
Hillary, Trump, Polls and BrExit Swing States - Electoral College Analysis US Election Forecast / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With just 2 days to go until the polls open and Hillary Clinton is continuing to pull away in the national opinion polls by building on yesterdays lead of +1.6% to currently stand at +1.7% as the average of recent national opinion polls that compares against Friday's +1.3%, Thursdays 1.7% and Wednesdays +2.2%. So Trumps FBI emails surge is definitely over going into the final 2 days of campaigning which suggests that polls parity is unlikely.